Top
Summary
All studies
Exclusions
Mortality
Ventilation
ICU
Hospitalization
Serious outcomes
Recovery
Cases
Viral clearance
RCTs
RCT mortality
Peer-reviewed
All outcomes

Feedback
Analgesics
Antiandrogens
Bromhexine
Budesonide
Cannabidiol
Colchicine
Conv. Plasma
Curcumin
Ensovibep
Famotidine
Favipiravir
Fluvoxamine
Hydroxychlor..
Ivermectin
Lactoferrin
Lifestyle
Melatonin
Metformin
Minerals
Molnupiravir
Monoclonals
Naso/orophar..
Nigella Sativa
Nitazoxanide
Paxlovid
Peg.. Lambda
Quercetin
Remdesivir
Vitamins

Other
Feedback
Home
Top
All paxlovid studies
 
Feedback
Home
c19early.org COVID-19 treatment researchPaxlovidPaxlovid (more..)
Melatonin Meta
Bromhexine Meta Metformin Meta
Budesonide Meta
Cannabidiol Meta Molnupiravir Meta
Colchicine Meta
Conv. Plasma Meta
Curcumin Meta Nigella Sativa Meta
Ensovibep Meta Nitazoxanide Meta
Famotidine Meta Paxlovid Meta
Favipiravir Meta Peg.. Lambda Meta
Fluvoxamine Meta Quercetin Meta
Hydroxychlor.. Meta Remdesivir Meta
Ivermectin Meta
Lactoferrin Meta

Outcomes in COVID-19 paxlovid studies

Outcomes in paxlovid studies. Pfizer has denied access to Paxlovid for independent RCTs Ledford. Pfizer RCTs report very good results, while non-Pfizer RCTs show relatively poor results Liu, Yu. Hoertel find that >50% of patients that died had a contraindication for Paxlovid. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy. Black box warning. The FDA notes that "severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid" FDA. Population studies often do not account for the different expected outcomes for the class of patients that seek out and receive early treatment.
0 0.5 1 1.5+ All studies 28% 38 79,907 Improvement, Studies, Patients Relative Risk Mortality 45% 18 53,317 Ventilation 1% 5 5,329 ICU admission 1% 6 4,889 Hospitalization 37% 14 48,708 Progression 17% 9 38,087 Recovery -5% 6 2,423 Cases 36% 1 1,670 Viral clearance 16% 13 4,360 RCTs 48% 5 5,372 RCT mortality 70% 3 3,494 Peer-reviewed 29% 26 48,920 Prophylaxis 67% 1 1,670 Early 32% 33 53,041 Late 28% 5 25,595 Paxlovid for COVID-19 c19early.org Oct 2023 after exclusions Favorspaxlovid Favorscontrol
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 65+ 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] death Arbel 40-64 -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] death 0/576 1/569 Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 Tau​2 = 0.07, I​2 = 90.0%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 32% 0.68 [0.60-0.77] 214/20,019 623.6/33,022 32% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] ventilation 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 28% 0.72 [0.66-0.78] 587/7,119 2,675/18,476 28% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 28% 0.72 [0.64-0.80] 801/27,968 3,299.6/52,338 28% lower risk Paxlovid COVID-19 studies c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 88.4%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 65+ 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] death Arbel 40-64 -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] death 0/576 1/569 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Tau​2 = 0.09, I​2 = 90.5%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 34% 0.66 [0.57-0.76] 129/16,552 503.6/29,361 34% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 28% 0.72 [0.66-0.78] 584/7,070 2,674/18,414 28% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 30% 0.70 [0.62-0.80] 713/24,452 3,178.6/48,615 30% lower risk Paxlovid COVID-19 studies after exclusions c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.07, I​2 = 89.1%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] 890 (n) 890 (n) Arbel 65+ 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] Arbel 40-64 -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] 0/576 1/569 Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] 0/1,130 10/1,130 Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] population-based cohort Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] 5/132 8/132 Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] 7/73 17/122 Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] 220 (n) 1,061 (n) Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] population-based cohort Tau​2 = 0.13, I​2 = 93.2%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 50% 0.50 [0.39-0.65] 39/9,395 196.6/18,953 50% lower risk Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] 280 (n) 802 (n) Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 28% 0.72 [0.66-0.78] 541/6,884 2,541/18,085 28% lower risk All studies 45% 0.55 [0.44-0.67] 580/16,279 2,737.6/37,038 45% lower risk 18 paxlovid COVID-19 mortality results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.10, I​2 = 93.4%, p < 0.0001 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Wong (PSM) 3% 0.97 [0.31-3.03] 890 (n) 890 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 38% 0.62 [0.23-1.72] Bajema (PSM) 48% 0.52 [0.12-2.16] 3/1,587 5.8/1,587 Liu (RCT) -67% 1.67 [0.62-4.45] 10/132 6/132 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.77 Early treatment 8% 0.92 [0.53-1.58] 13/2,609 11.8/2,609 8% lower risk Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.24 Late treatment -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] 3/49 1/62 280% higher risk All studies 1% 0.99 [0.58-1.70] 16/2,658 12.8/2,671 1% lower risk 5 paxlovid COVID-19 mechanical ventilation results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 2.1%, p = 0.99 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Pfizer (DB RCT) 86% 0.14 [0.01-2.75] 0/576 3/569 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) -58% 1.58 [0.95-2.63] Bajema (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.92] 10/1,587 22.8/1,587 Liu (RCT) -10% 1.10 [0.56-2.12] 132 (n) 132 (n) Yan 14% 0.86 [0.52-1.43] 17/73 33/122 Tau​2 = 0.17, I​2 = 59.4%, p = 0.66 Early treatment 11% 0.89 [0.54-1.47] 27/2,368 58.8/2,410 11% lower risk Fu -659% 7.59 [0.95-61.0] 6/49 1/62 OT​1 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.056 Late treatment -659% 7.59 [0.95-61.0] 6/49 1/62 659% higher risk All studies 1% 0.99 [0.57-1.70] 33/2,417 59.8/2,472 1% lower risk 6 paxlovid COVID-19 ICU results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.25, I​2 = 63.0%, p = 0.96 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 88% 0.12 [0.06-0.26] hosp. 8/1,039 65/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 4% 0.96 [0.88-1.04] hosp. time 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 21% 0.79 [0.65-0.95] hosp. Arbel 65+ 73% 0.27 [0.15-0.49] hosp. Arbel 40-64 26% 0.74 [0.35-1.58] hosp. Ganatra (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.91] hosp. 10/1,130 23/1,130 Zhou (PSM) 84% 0.16 [0.11-0.22] hosp. 34/2,808 752/10,849 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.67-0.86] hosp. Bajema (PSM) 7% 0.93 [0.74-1.16] hosp. 180/1,587 194.2/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 40% 0.60 [0.44-0.81] hosp. Yan 9% 0.91 [0.84-0.99] hosp. time 73 (n) 122 (n) Wee 35% 0.65 [0.50-0.85] hosp. population-based cohort Tau​2 = 0.10, I​2 = 92.6%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 41% 0.59 [0.48-0.74] 232/7,527 1,034.2/15,624 41% lower risk Wan 24% 0.76 [0.70-0.82] hosp. 1,772/6,604 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 24% 0.76 [0.70-0.82] 1,772/6,604 2,541/17,283 24% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 37% 0.63 [0.54-0.75] 2,004/14,961 3,576.2/33,747 37% lower risk 14 paxlovid COVID-19 hospitalization results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 91.7%, p < 0.0001 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 65+ 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] death Arbel 40-64 -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] death 0/576 1/569 Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 Tau​2 = 0.11, I​2 = 90.4%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 39% 0.61 [0.51-0.72] 181/19,623 492.6/32,468 39% lower risk Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] ventilation 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 28% 0.72 [0.66-0.79] 547/7,036 2,545/18,252 28% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 37% 0.63 [0.54-0.74] 728/27,489 3,038.6/51,560 37% lower risk 30 paxlovid COVID-19 serious outcomes c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.09, I​2 = 89.9%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 21% 0.79 [0.69-0.90] recov. time 686 (n) 674 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Tau​2 = 0.05, I​2 = 81.8%, p = 0.87 Early treatment 2% 0.98 [0.77-1.24] 0/801 0/721 2% lower risk Shao -28% 1.28 [1.13-1.45] HRQoL 237 (n) 456 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Yu (RCT) -6% 1.06 [0.79-1.43] no disch. 49/103 47/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 25.2%, p = 0.011 Late treatment -23% 1.23 [1.05-1.43] 49/340 47/561 23% higher risk All studies -5% 1.05 [0.85-1.29] 49/1,141 47/1,282 5% higher risk 6 paxlovid COVID-19 recovery results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 86.4%, p = 0.69 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Pfizer (DB RCT) 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] symp. case 830 (n) 840 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.12 Prophylaxis 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] 0/830 0/840 36% lower risk All studies 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] 0/830 0/840 36% lower risk 1 paxlovid COVID-19 case result c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.12 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.83-0.93] viral load 529 (n) 526 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 28% 0.72 [0.56-0.93] viral+ 890 (n) 890 (n) Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 16% 0.84 [0.74-0.96] viral time 106 (n) 36 (n) Pandit 3% 0.97 [0.83-1.14] viral+ n/a n/a Liu (RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.85-1.07] viral time 132 (n) 132 (n) Yan 62% 0.38 [0.22-0.68] viral time 73 (n) 122 (n) Li 58% 0.42 [0.19-0.93] viral time 9 (n) 11 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Tau​2 = 0.03, I​2 = 83.0%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 22% 0.78 [0.69-0.88] 33/2,020 131/2,224 22% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Yu (RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.66-1.18] viral+ 30/103 34/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 9.9%, p = 0.0083 Late treatment 27% 0.73 [0.58-0.92] 70/186 164/329 27% lower risk All studies 16% 0.84 [0.78-0.90] 103/2,206 295/2,553 16% lower risk 14 paxlovid COVID-19 viral clearance results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 59.5%, p < 0.0001 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] death 0/576 1/569 Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Tau​2 = 0.82, I​2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13 Early treatment 70% 0.30 [0.06-1.46] 5/1,747 21/1,747 70% lower risk Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.98 Late treatment -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] 3/103 3/105 2% higher risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 48% 0.52 [0.23-1.19] 8/2,680 25/2,692 48% lower risk 5 paxlovid COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trials c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.03, I​2 = 2.8%, p = 0.12 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] 0/576 1/569 Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] 5/132 8/132 Tau​2 = 0.82, I​2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13 Early treatment 70% 0.30 [0.06-1.46] 5/1,747 21/1,747 70% lower risk All studies 70% 0.30 [0.06-1.46] 5/1,747 21/1,747 70% lower risk 3 paxlovid COVID-19 RCT mortality results c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.82, I​2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 65+ 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] death Arbel 40-64 -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 Tau​2 = 0.09, I​2 = 82.8%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 35% 0.65 [0.55-0.76] 172/8,899 473/14,936 35% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 28% 0.72 [0.66-0.78] 584/7,070 2,674/18,414 28% lower risk All studies 29% 0.71 [0.63-0.80] 756/15,969 3,147/33,350 29% lower risk 27 paxlovid COVID-19 peer reviewed studies c19early.org October 2023 Tau​2 = 0.04, I​2 = 74.6%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.89] death 0/697 9/682 EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 88% 0.12 [0.06-0.26] hosp. 8/1,039 65/1,046 EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.04-0.28] hosp. 5/697 44/682 EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) -11% 1.11 [0.85-1.44] progression 686 (n) 674 (n) EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 21% 0.79 [0.69-0.90] recov. time 686 (n) 674 (n) EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.83-0.93] viral load 529 (n) 526 (n) EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.90-1.00] viral load 529 (n) 526 (n) Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 3% 0.97 [0.31-3.03] ventilation 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 43% 0.57 [0.45-0.72] progression 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 4% 0.96 [0.88-1.04] hosp. time 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 28% 0.72 [0.56-0.93] viral+ 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Yip (PSW) 21% 0.79 [0.65-0.95] hosp. Arbel 65+ 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] death Arbel 65+ -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Arbel 65+ 73% 0.27 [0.15-0.49] hosp. Arbel 65+ 26% 0.74 [0.35-1.58] hosp. Arbel 40-64 -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Arbel 40-64 26% 0.74 [0.35-1.58] hosp. Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.13] death 0/576 1/569 Pfizer (DB RCT) 86% 0.14 [0.01-2.75] ICU 0/576 3/569 Pfizer (DB RCT) 51% 0.49 [0.17-1.44] death/hosp. 5/576 10/569 Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Li (ES) 41% 0.59 [0.50-0.69] viral time 175 (n) 224 (n) Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 Ganatra (PSM) 39% 0.61 [0.42-0.70] progression 89/1,130 163/1,130 Ganatra (PSM) 33% 0.67 [0.52-0.87] progression 89/1,130 163/1,130 Ganatra (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.91] hosp. 10/1,130 23/1,130 Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhong 16% 0.84 [0.74-0.96] viral time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhong 16% 0.84 [0.76-0.93] viral time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Zhou (PSM) 75% 0.25 [0.10-0.61] death 5/2,808 78/10,849 Zhou (PSM) 84% 0.16 [0.11-0.22] hosp. 34/2,808 752/10,849 Zhou (PSM) 89% 0.11 [0.07-0.17] hosp. 22/2,808 708/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Wong (PSM) 38% 0.62 [0.23-1.72] ventilation Wong (PSM) -58% 1.58 [0.95-2.63] ICU Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.67-0.86] hosp. Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Schwartz (PSW) 43% 0.57 [0.48-0.68] death/hosp. population-based cohort Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Pandit 3% 0.97 [0.83-1.14] viral+ n/a n/a Pandit -171% 2.71 [0.86-8.55] misc. 24/127 3/43 Pandit -52% 1.52 [0.55-4.25] misc. 18/127 4/43 Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 79% 0.21 [0.08-0.56] death 5/1,587 23.6/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 48% 0.52 [0.12-2.16] ventilation 3/1,587 5.8/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.92] ICU 10/1,587 22.8/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 7% 0.93 [0.74-1.16] hosp. 180/1,587 194.2/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 34% 0.66 [0.45-0.96] hosp. 43/1,587 65.2/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death Dryden-Peterson 44% 0.56 [0.42-0.75] death/hosp. Dryden-Peterson 40% 0.60 [0.44-0.81] hosp. Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Zheng (PSW) 12% 0.88 [0.45-1.71] death/hosp. 33/4,836 19/2,847 OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Liu (RCT) -67% 1.67 [0.62-4.45] ventilation 10/132 6/132 Liu (RCT) -10% 1.10 [0.56-2.12] ICU 132 (n) 132 (n) Liu (RCT) -27% 1.27 [0.67-2.38] progression 19/132 15/132 Liu (RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.85-1.07] viral time 132 (n) 132 (n) Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a Lewnard 89% 0.11 [0.01-1.25] death/ICU n/a n/a Lewnard 54% 0.46 [0.23-0.93] death/hosp. n/a n/a Lewnard 80% 0.20 [0.06-0.66] death/hosp. n/a n/a Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Yan 44% 0.56 [0.32-0.96] progression 73 (n) 122 (n) Yan 14% 0.86 [0.52-1.43] ICU 17/73 33/122 Yan 9% 0.91 [0.84-0.99] hosp. time 73 (n) 122 (n) Yan 62% 0.38 [0.22-0.68] viral time 73 (n) 122 (n) Yan 73% 0.27 [0.19-0.38] viral+ 73 (n) 122 (n) Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Patel (PSM) 25% 0.75 [0.62-0.90] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Patel (PSM) 29% 0.71 [0.58-0.85] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Patel (PSM) 26% 0.74 [0.60-0.90] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Li 58% 0.42 [0.19-0.93] viral time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Wee 35% 0.65 [0.50-0.85] hosp. population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Kim 43% 0.57 [0.53-0.60] severe case population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 Dormuth 78% 0.22 [0.05-1.02] death/hosp. 2/280 9/280 Dormuth 49% 0.51 [0.31-0.84] death/hosp. 23/1,314 45/1,314 Dormuth 36% 0.64 [0.39-1.05] death/hosp. 25/1,050 39/1,050 Dormuth -30% 1.30 [0.79-2.12] death/hosp. 35/789 27/789 Dormuth 8% 0.92 [0.78-1.09] progression 232/3,280 252/3,280 Dormuth 24% 0.76 [0.45-1.29] progression 22/264 29/264 Dormuth 19% 0.81 [0.62-1.05] progression 93/1,259 115/1,259 Dormuth -3% 1.03 [0.74-1.45] progression 64/1,018 62/1,018 Dormuth -15% 1.15 [0.79-1.69] progression 53/739 46/739 Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 24% 0.76 [0.70-0.82] hosp. 1,772/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 18% 0.82 [0.76-0.88] progression 1,816/6,604 2,541/17,283 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Shao -28% 1.28 [1.13-1.45] HRQoL 237 (n) 456 (n) Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] ventilation 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Fu -659% 7.59 [0.95-61.0] ICU 6/49 1/62 OT​1 Fu -207% 3.07 [1.39-6.81] progression 17/49 7/62 OT​1 Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Yu (RCT) -6% 1.06 [0.79-1.43] no disch. 49/103 47/105 OT​1 Yu (RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.66-1.18] viral+ 30/103 34/105 OT​1 Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.16] hosp. 0/844 1/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 25% 0.75 [0.40-1.39] severe case 17/830 23/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 22% 0.78 [0.42-1.43] severe case 18/844 23/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 15% 0.85 [0.66-1.09] progression 830 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 3% 0.97 [0.76-1.24] progression 844 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] symp. case 830 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 30% 0.70 [0.42-1.17] symp. case 844 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.65-1.41] symp. case 887 (n) 873 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 27% 0.73 [0.48-1.10] symp. case 889 (n) 873 (n) Paxlovid COVID-19 outcomes c19early.org October 2023 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control
Please send us corrections, updates, or comments. Vaccines and treatments are complementary. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used based on risk/benefit analysis. No treatment, vaccine, or intervention is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. We do not provide medical advice. Before taking any medication, consult a qualified physician who can provide personalized advice and details of risks and benefits based on your medical history and situation. FLCCC and WCH provide treatment protocols.
  or use drag and drop   
Thanks for your feedback! Please search before submitting papers and note that studies are listed under the date they were first available, which may be the date of an earlier preprint.
Submit