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c19early.org COVID-19 treatment researchPaxlovidPaxlovid (more..)
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Outcomes in COVID-19 paxlovid studies

Outcomes in paxlovid studies. Pfizer has denied access to Paxlovid for independent RCTs Ledford. Pfizer RCTs report very good results, while non-Pfizer RCTs show relatively poor results Liu, Yu. Hoertel find that >50% of patients that died had a contraindication for Paxlovid. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy. Black box warning. The FDA notes that "severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid" FDA. Population studies often do not account for the different expected outcomes for the class of patients that seek out and receive early treatment. Resistant variants are likely Jochmans, Zhou.
0 0.5 1 1.5+ All studies 17% 62 120,524 Improvement, Studies, Patients Relative Risk Mortality 30% 30 70,419 Ventilation -16% 10 14,414 ICU admission -9% 10 18,015 Hospitalization 40% 17 50,311 Progression 4% 14 41,249 Recovery 5% 10 4,248 Cases 36% 1 1,670 Viral clearance 13% 21 10,105 RCTs 31% 6 5,652 RCT mortality 44% 4 3,774 Peer-reviewed 17% 46 87,414 Prophylaxis 67% 1 1,670 Early 20% 46 80,378 Late 3% 16 38,875 Paxlovid for COVID-19 c19early.org June 2024 after exclusions Favorspaxlovid Favorscontrol
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 56% 0.44 [0.08-2.59] death population-based cohort Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] death 0/654 1/634 Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 confounding Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death confounding Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Shah 51% 0.49 [0.46-0.53] hosp. population-based cohort confounding Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a confounding Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 confounding Lin -633% 7.33 [0.86-62.7] oxygen 4/30 1/55 Dalton (PSM) 8% 0.92 [0.91-0.93] PASC population-based cohort Fung 7% 0.93 [0.92-0.94] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.95-1.03] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Xu 12% 0.88 [0.76-1.02] hosp. time 195 (n) 120 (n) Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Choi 37% 0.63 [0.46-0.86] death 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Preiss 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.01] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Zhu -79% 1.79 [1.39-2.33] viral+ 138 (n) 155 (n) Cheng 22% 0.78 [0.60-1.00] death 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Wang 13% 0.87 [0.46-1.63] death 66 (n) 55 (n) Henderson 84% 0.16 [0.05-0.50] hosp. confounding Yang 0% 1.00 [0.84-1.18] viral+ 362 (n) 724 (n) RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] death 9/68 9/69 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 93.6%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 20% 0.80 [0.76-0.84] 227/32,883 633.6/47,495 20% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 23% 0.77 [0.66-0.90] death 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] ventilation 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 509 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -175% 2.75 [0.89-8.51] death 11/228 4/228 OT​1 Li 18% 0.82 [0.47-1.43] death 14/73 35/150 Zhou -39% 1.39 [1.02-1.89] death 52/132 54/190 Wei 0% 1.00 [0.68-1.46] death 36/264 63/461 OT​1 Guo -10% 1.10 [1.01-1.20] viral time 779 (n) 1,199 (n) Lu -6% 1.06 [0.77-1.47] death 17/29 140/253 Liu -94% 1.94 [1.24-3.03] progression 27/145 41/427 Peng -79% 1.79 [0.43-7.42] death 21 (n) 145 (n) Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.42-2.37] death 10/324 10/324 Tau​2 = 0.07, I​2 = 81.3%, p = 0.72 Late treatment 3% 0.97 [0.81-1.15] 754/11,207 3,022/27,668 3% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 17% 0.83 [0.80-0.87] 981/44,920 3,656.6/76,003 17% lower risk 62 paxlovid COVID-19 studies c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 91.8%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 56% 0.44 [0.08-2.59] death population-based cohort Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] death 0/654 1/634 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Lin -633% 7.33 [0.86-62.7] oxygen 4/30 1/55 Dalton (PSM) 8% 0.92 [0.91-0.93] PASC population-based cohort Fung 7% 0.93 [0.92-0.94] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.95-1.03] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Xu 12% 0.88 [0.76-1.02] hosp. time 195 (n) 120 (n) Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Choi 37% 0.63 [0.46-0.86] death 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Preiss 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.01] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Zhu -79% 1.79 [1.39-2.33] viral+ 138 (n) 155 (n) Cheng 22% 0.78 [0.60-1.00] death 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Wang 13% 0.87 [0.46-1.63] death 66 (n) 55 (n) Yang 0% 1.00 [0.84-1.18] viral+ 362 (n) 724 (n) RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] death 9/68 9/69 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 89.4%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 14% 0.86 [0.82-0.90] 142/28,286 503.6/42,704 14% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 23% 0.77 [0.66-0.90] death 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 509 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -175% 2.75 [0.89-8.51] death 11/228 4/228 OT​1 Wei 0% 1.00 [0.68-1.46] death 36/264 63/461 OT​1 Guo -10% 1.10 [1.01-1.20] viral time 779 (n) 1,199 (n) Lu -6% 1.06 [0.77-1.47] death 17/29 140/253 Liu -94% 1.94 [1.24-3.03] progression 27/145 41/427 Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.42-2.37] death 10/324 10/324 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 84.2%, p = 0.41 Late treatment 8% 0.92 [0.77-1.11] 685/10,932 2,932/27,121 8% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 13% 0.87 [0.84-0.91] 827/40,048 3,436.6/70,665 13% lower risk 50 paxlovid COVID-19 studies after exclusions c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 87.1%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] 890 (n) 890 (n) Arbel 56% 0.44 [0.08-2.59] population-based cohort EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] 0/654 1/634 Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] 0/1,130 10/1,130 confounding Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] population-based cohort Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] confounding Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] 5/132 8/132 Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] 7/73 17/122 Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] 220 (n) 1,061 (n) Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] population-based cohort Choi 37% 0.63 [0.46-0.86] 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Cheng 22% 0.78 [0.60-1.00] 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Wang 13% 0.87 [0.46-1.63] 66 (n) 55 (n) RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] 9/68 9/69 Tau​2 = 0.12, I​2 = 92.0%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 43% 0.57 [0.46-0.70] 48/11,941 205.6/22,779 43% lower risk Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 23% 0.77 [0.66-0.90] 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] 280 (n) 802 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] 280 (n) 509 (n) Dian (PSM) -175% 2.75 [0.89-8.51] 11/228 4/228 OT​1 Li 18% 0.82 [0.47-1.43] 14/73 35/150 Zhou -39% 1.39 [1.02-1.89] 52/132 54/190 Wei 0% 1.00 [0.68-1.46] 36/264 63/461 OT​1 Lu -6% 1.06 [0.77-1.47] 17/29 140/253 Peng -79% 1.79 [0.43-7.42] 21 (n) 145 (n) Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.42-2.37] 10/324 10/324 Tau​2 = 0.04, I​2 = 64.6%, p = 0.26 Late treatment 9% 0.91 [0.76-1.08] 681/10,048 2,847/25,651 9% lower risk All studies 30% 0.70 [0.61-0.81] 729/21,989 3,052.6/48,430 30% lower risk 30 paxlovid COVID-19 mortality results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.08, I​2 = 89.6%, p < 0.0001 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Wong (PSM) 3% 0.97 [0.31-3.03] 890 (n) 890 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 38% 0.62 [0.23-1.72] Bajema (PSM) 48% 0.52 [0.12-2.16] 3/1,587 5.8/1,587 Liu (RCT) -67% 1.67 [0.62-4.45] 10/132 6/132 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.06-15.9] 1/68 1/69 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.78 Early treatment 8% 0.92 [0.54-1.57] 14/2,677 12.8/2,678 8% lower risk Wan -3% 1.03 [0.70-1.52] 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -200% 3.00 [0.61-14.7] 6/228 2/228 OT​1 Wei -38% 1.38 [1.02-1.87] 61/264 77/461 OT​1 Chen (PSM) 80% 0.20 [0.02-1.70] 1/324 5/324 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 36.8%, p = 0.29 Late treatment -24% 1.24 [0.83-1.85] 71/2,678 85/6,381 24% higher risk All studies -16% 1.16 [0.90-1.51] 85/5,355 97.8/9,059 16% higher risk 10 paxlovid COVID-19 mechanical ventilation results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.02, I​2 = 10.0%, p = 0.26 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Wong (PSM) -58% 1.58 [0.95-2.63] Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Bajema (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.92] 10/1,587 22.8/1,587 Liu (RCT) -10% 1.10 [0.56-2.12] 132 (n) 132 (n) Yan 14% 0.86 [0.52-1.43] 17/73 33/122 Choi -40% 1.40 [0.16-12.6] 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Cheng 14% 0.86 [0.56-1.32] 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Tau​2 = 0.07, I​2 = 42.0%, p = 0.73 Early treatment 6% 0.94 [0.67-1.31] 27/4,126 55.8/5,478 6% lower risk Wan -8% 1.08 [0.58-2.02] 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Fu -659% 7.59 [0.95-61.0] 6/49 1/62 OT​1 Dian (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.06-15.9] 1/228 1/228 OT​1 Wei -122% 2.22 [0.98-5.03] 14/264 11/461 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.15, I​2 = 32.6%, p = 0.12 Late treatment -70% 1.70 [0.87-3.32] 21/2,354 13/6,057 70% higher risk All studies -9% 1.09 [0.79-1.50] 48/6,480 68.8/11,535 9% higher risk 10 paxlovid COVID-19 ICU results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.10, I​2 = 44.9%, p = 0.61 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 88% 0.12 [0.06-0.26] hosp. 8/1,039 65/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 4% 0.96 [0.88-1.04] hosp. time 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 21% 0.79 [0.65-0.95] hosp. Arbel 57% 0.43 [0.16-1.17] hosp. population-based cohort EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 52% 0.48 [0.17-1.41] hosp. 5/654 10/634 Ganatra (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.91] hosp. 10/1,130 23/1,130 confounding Zhou (PSM) 84% 0.16 [0.11-0.22] hosp. 34/2,808 752/10,849 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.67-0.86] hosp. Bajema (PSM) 7% 0.93 [0.74-1.16] hosp. 180/1,587 194.2/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 40% 0.60 [0.44-0.81] hosp. confounding Shah 51% 0.49 [0.46-0.53] hosp. population-based cohort confounding Yan 9% 0.91 [0.84-0.99] hosp. time 73 (n) 122 (n) Wee 35% 0.65 [0.50-0.85] hosp. population-based cohort Xu 12% 0.88 [0.76-1.02] hosp. time 195 (n) 120 (n) Henderson 84% 0.16 [0.05-0.50] hosp. confounding Tau​2 = 0.13, I​2 = 95.6%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 43% 0.57 [0.46-0.71] 237/8,376 1,044.2/16,378 43% lower risk Wan 24% 0.76 [0.70-0.82] hosp. 1,772/6,604 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001 Late treatment 24% 0.76 [0.70-0.82] 1,772/6,604 2,541/17,283 24% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 40% 0.60 [0.51-0.72] 2,009/15,810 3,586.2/34,501 40% lower risk 17 paxlovid COVID-19 hospitalization results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.09, I​2 = 95.0%, p < 0.0001 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 56% 0.44 [0.08-2.59] death population-based cohort Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] death 0/654 1/634 Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 confounding Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death confounding Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Shah 51% 0.49 [0.46-0.53] hosp. population-based cohort confounding Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a confounding Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 confounding Lin -633% 7.33 [0.86-62.7] oxygen 4/30 1/55 Dalton (PSM) 8% 0.92 [0.91-0.93] PASC population-based cohort Fung 7% 0.93 [0.92-0.94] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.95-1.03] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Choi 37% 0.63 [0.46-0.86] death 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Preiss 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.01] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Cheng 22% 0.78 [0.60-1.00] death 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Wang 13% 0.87 [0.46-1.63] death 66 (n) 55 (n) Henderson 84% 0.16 [0.05-0.50] hosp. confounding RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] death 9/68 9/69 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 94.4%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 24% 0.76 [0.71-0.80] 194/31,792 502.6/45,942 24% lower risk Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 23% 0.77 [0.66-0.90] death 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] ventilation 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 509 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -175% 2.75 [0.89-8.51] death 11/228 4/228 OT​1 Li 18% 0.82 [0.47-1.43] death 14/73 35/150 Zhou -39% 1.39 [1.02-1.89] death 52/132 54/190 Wei 0% 1.00 [0.68-1.46] death 36/264 63/461 OT​1 Lu -6% 1.06 [0.77-1.47] death 17/29 140/253 Liu -94% 1.94 [1.24-3.03] progression 27/145 41/427 Peng -79% 1.79 [0.43-7.42] death 21 (n) 145 (n) Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.42-2.37] death 10/324 10/324 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 71.5%, p = 0.93 Late treatment 1% 0.99 [0.82-1.20] 714/10,345 2,892/26,245 1% lower risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 22% 0.78 [0.74-0.83] 908/42,967 3,395.6/73,027 22% lower risk 50 paxlovid COVID-19 serious outcomes c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 92.7%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 21% 0.79 [0.69-0.90] recov. time 686 (n) 674 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 8% 0.92 [0.82-1.03] recov. time 654 (n) 634 (n) Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Lin 35% 0.65 [0.43-0.98] recov. time 30 (n) 55 (n) Xu 35% 0.65 [0.57-0.74] recov. time 195 (n) 120 (n) RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -35% 1.35 [0.76-2.42] no disch. 20/68 15/69 Tau​2 = 0.04, I​2 = 82.8%, p = 0.19 Early treatment 11% 0.89 [0.76-1.06] 20/1,748 15/1,599 11% lower risk Shao -28% 1.28 [1.13-1.45] HRQoL 237 (n) 456 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Yu (RCT) -6% 1.06 [0.79-1.43] no disch. 49/103 47/105 OT​1 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 25.2%, p = 0.011 Late treatment -23% 1.23 [1.05-1.43] 49/340 47/561 23% higher risk All studies 5% 0.95 [0.80-1.13] 69/2,088 62/2,160 5% lower risk 10 paxlovid COVID-19 recovery results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 88.5%, p = 0.6 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Pfizer (DB RCT) 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] symp. case 830 (n) 840 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.12 Prophylaxis 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] 830 (n) 840 (n) 36% lower risk All studies 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] 830 (n) 840 (n) 36% lower risk 1 paxlovid COVID-19 case result c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.12 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.83-0.93] viral load 529 (n) 526 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 28% 0.72 [0.56-0.93] viral+ 890 (n) 890 (n) EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 4% 0.96 [0.92-1.00] viral load 654 (n) 634 (n) Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 16% 0.84 [0.74-0.96] viral time 106 (n) 36 (n) Pandit 3% 0.97 [0.83-1.14] viral+ n/a n/a Liu (RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.85-1.07] viral time 132 (n) 132 (n) Yan 62% 0.38 [0.22-0.68] viral time 73 (n) 122 (n) Li 58% 0.42 [0.19-0.93] viral time 9 (n) 11 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Xu 58% 0.42 [0.33-0.54] viral time 195 (n) 120 (n) Zhu -79% 1.79 [1.39-2.33] viral+ 138 (n) 155 (n) Yang 0% 1.00 [0.84-1.18] viral+ 362 (n) 724 (n) RECOVERY Horby (RCT) 19% 0.81 [0.76-0.86] viral load 68 (n) 69 (n) Tau​2 = 0.03, I​2 = 89.7%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 18% 0.82 [0.74-0.90] 33/3,437 131/3,926 18% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Yu (RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.66-1.18] viral+ 30/103 34/105 OT​1 Guo -10% 1.10 [1.01-1.20] viral time 779 (n) 1,199 (n) Chen 1% 0.99 [0.84-1.16] viral time 324 (n) 324 (n) Tau​2 = 0.03, I​2 = 77.7%, p = 0.45 Late treatment 7% 0.93 [0.76-1.13] 70/1,289 164/1,852 7% lower risk All studies 13% 0.87 [0.81-0.94] 103/4,726 295/5,778 13% lower risk 21 paxlovid COVID-19 viral clearance results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.02, I​2 = 86.3%, p = 0.00051 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] death 0/654 1/634 Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] death 9/68 9/69 Tau​2 = 0.37, I​2 = 38.8%, p = 0.24 Early treatment 44% 0.56 [0.21-1.48] 14/1,893 30/1,881 44% lower risk Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.98 Late treatment -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] 3/103 3/105 2% higher risk Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.51 Prophylaxis 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] 0/830 1/840 67% lower risk All studies 31% 0.69 [0.37-1.30] 17/2,826 34/2,826 31% lower risk 6 paxlovid COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trials c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.04, I​2 = 6.0%, p = 0.25 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] 0/654 1/634 Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] 5/132 8/132 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] 9/68 9/69 Tau​2 = 0.37, I​2 = 38.8%, p = 0.24 Early treatment 44% 0.56 [0.21-1.48] 14/1,893 30/1,881 44% lower risk All studies 44% 0.56 [0.21-1.48] 14/1,893 30/1,881 44% lower risk 4 paxlovid COVID-19 RCT mortality results c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.37, I​2 = 38.8%, p = 0.24 Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Arbel 56% 0.44 [0.08-2.59] death population-based cohort Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 confounding Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death confounding Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Shah 51% 0.49 [0.46-0.53] hosp. population-based cohort confounding Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a confounding Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 confounding Lin -633% 7.33 [0.86-62.7] oxygen 4/30 1/55 Fung 7% 0.93 [0.92-0.94] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.95-1.03] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Xu 12% 0.88 [0.76-1.02] hosp. time 195 (n) 120 (n) Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Zhu -79% 1.79 [1.39-2.33] viral+ 138 (n) 155 (n) Cheng 22% 0.78 [0.60-1.00] death 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Wang 13% 0.87 [0.46-1.63] death 66 (n) 55 (n) Henderson 84% 0.16 [0.05-0.50] hosp. confounding Yang 0% 1.00 [0.84-1.18] viral+ 362 (n) 724 (n) Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 94.4%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 26% 0.74 [0.66-0.83] 176/21,366 474/27,683 26% lower risk Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 23% 0.77 [0.66-0.90] death 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 509 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -175% 2.75 [0.89-8.51] death 11/228 4/228 OT​1 Li 18% 0.82 [0.47-1.43] death 14/73 35/150 Zhou -39% 1.39 [1.02-1.89] death 52/132 54/190 Wei 0% 1.00 [0.68-1.46] death 36/264 63/461 OT​1 Guo -10% 1.10 [1.01-1.20] viral time 779 (n) 1,199 (n) Lu -6% 1.06 [0.77-1.47] death 17/29 140/253 Liu -94% 1.94 [1.24-3.03] progression 27/145 41/427 Peng -79% 1.79 [0.43-7.42] death 21 (n) 145 (n) Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.42-2.37] death 10/324 10/324 Tau​2 = 0.06, I​2 = 82.2%, p = 0.65 Late treatment 4% 0.96 [0.81-1.14] 751/11,158 3,021/27,606 4% lower risk All studies 17% 0.83 [0.76-0.90] 927/32,524 3,495/55,289 17% lower risk 46 paxlovid COVID-19 peer reviewed studies c19early.org June 2024 Tau​2 = 0.05, I​2 = 92.4%, p < 0.0001 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 96% 0.04 [0.00-0.68] death 0/1,039 12/1,046 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.89] death 0/697 9/682 EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 88% 0.12 [0.06-0.26] hosp. 8/1,039 65/1,046 EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.04-0.28] hosp. 5/697 44/682 EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) -11% 1.11 [0.85-1.44] progression 686 (n) 674 (n) EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 21% 0.79 [0.69-0.90] recov. time 686 (n) 674 (n) EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.83-0.93] viral load 529 (n) 526 (n) EPIC-HR Hammond (DB RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.90-1.00] viral load 529 (n) 526 (n) Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.23-0.50] death 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 3% 0.97 [0.31-3.03] ventilation 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 43% 0.57 [0.45-0.72] progression 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 4% 0.96 [0.88-1.04] hosp. time 890 (n) 890 (n) Wong (PSM) 28% 0.72 [0.56-0.93] viral+ 890 (n) 890 (n) Yip (PSW) 19% 0.81 [0.47-1.39] death/ICU Yip (PSW) 21% 0.79 [0.65-0.95] hosp. Arbel 56% 0.44 [0.08-2.59] death population-based cohort Arbel 79% 0.21 [0.05-0.82] death Arbel -32% 1.32 [0.16-10.8] death Arbel 57% 0.43 [0.16-1.17] hosp. population-based cohort Arbel 73% 0.27 [0.15-0.49] hosp. Arbel 26% 0.74 [0.35-1.58] hosp. Najjar-Debbiny 46% 0.54 [0.39-0.75] severe case population-based cohort EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] death 0/654 1/634 EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 52% 0.48 [0.17-1.41] hosp. 5/654 10/634 EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 4% 0.96 [0.91-1.02] progression 494/654 498/634 EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 8% 0.92 [0.82-1.03] recov. time 654 (n) 634 (n) EPIC-SR Pfizer (DB RCT) 4% 0.96 [0.92-1.00] viral load 654 (n) 634 (n) Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Li (ES) 79% 0.21 [0.15-0.28] viral+ 18/175 130/224 Li (ES) 41% 0.59 [0.50-0.69] viral time 175 (n) 224 (n) Lu 12% 0.88 [0.78-0.98] viral+ n/a n/a Ganatra (PSM) 95% 0.05 [0.00-0.81] death 0/1,130 10/1,130 confounding Ganatra (PSM) 39% 0.61 [0.42-0.70] progression 89/1,130 163/1,130 confounding Ganatra (PSM) 33% 0.67 [0.52-0.87] progression 89/1,130 163/1,130 confounding Ganatra (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.91] hosp. 10/1,130 23/1,130 confounding Shao 20% 0.80 [0.71-0.91] viral time 17 (n) 114 (n) OT​1 Zhong 15% 0.85 [0.65-1.13] recov. time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhong 16% 0.84 [0.74-0.96] viral time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhong 16% 0.84 [0.76-0.93] viral time 106 (n) 36 (n) Zhou (PSM) 73% 0.27 [0.13-0.58] death 7/2,808 100/10,849 Zhou (PSM) 75% 0.25 [0.10-0.61] death 5/2,808 78/10,849 Zhou (PSM) 84% 0.16 [0.11-0.22] hosp. 34/2,808 752/10,849 Zhou (PSM) 89% 0.11 [0.07-0.17] hosp. 22/2,808 708/10,849 Wong (PSM) 66% 0.34 [0.22-0.52] death Wong (PSM) 38% 0.62 [0.23-1.72] ventilation Wong (PSM) -58% 1.58 [0.95-2.63] ICU Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.67-0.86] hosp. Schwartz (PSW) 50% 0.50 [0.41-0.61] death population-based cohort Schwartz (PSW) 43% 0.57 [0.48-0.68] death/hosp. population-based cohort Pandit 1% 0.99 [0.83-1.17] no recov. n/a n/a Pandit 3% 0.97 [0.83-1.14] viral+ n/a n/a Pandit -171% 2.71 [0.86-8.55] misc. 24/127 3/43 Pandit -52% 1.52 [0.55-4.25] misc. 18/127 4/43 Bajema (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.26-0.67] death 20/1,587 48.6/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 79% 0.21 [0.08-0.56] death 5/1,587 23.6/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 48% 0.52 [0.12-2.16] ventilation 3/1,587 5.8/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 56% 0.44 [0.21-0.92] ICU 10/1,587 22.8/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 7% 0.93 [0.74-1.16] hosp. 180/1,587 194.2/1,587 Bajema (PSM) 34% 0.66 [0.45-0.96] hosp. 43/1,587 65.2/1,587 Dryden-Peterson 71% 0.29 [0.12-0.71] death confounding Dryden-Peterson 44% 0.56 [0.42-0.75] death/hosp. confounding Dryden-Peterson 40% 0.60 [0.44-0.81] hosp. confounding Zheng (PSW) -4% 1.04 [0.56-1.93] death/hosp. 4,836 (n) 2,847 (n) OT​1 Zheng (PSW) 12% 0.88 [0.45-1.71] death/hosp. 33/4,836 19/2,847 OT​1 Evans 41% 0.59 [0.36-0.97] death/hosp. 602 (n) 4,973 (n) Shah 51% 0.49 [0.46-0.53] hosp. population-based cohort confounding Liu (RCT) 38% 0.62 [0.21-1.86] death 5/132 8/132 Liu (RCT) -67% 1.67 [0.62-4.45] ventilation 10/132 6/132 Liu (RCT) -10% 1.10 [0.56-2.12] ICU 132 (n) 132 (n) Liu (RCT) -27% 1.27 [0.67-2.38] progression 19/132 15/132 Liu (RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.85-1.07] viral time 132 (n) 132 (n) Lewnard 84% 0.16 [0.03-0.81] death/ICU n/a n/a confounding Lewnard 89% 0.11 [0.01-1.25] death/ICU n/a n/a confounding Lewnard 54% 0.46 [0.23-0.93] death/hosp. n/a n/a confounding Lewnard 80% 0.20 [0.06-0.66] death/hosp. n/a n/a confounding Yan 31% 0.69 [0.30-1.58] death 7/73 17/122 Yan 44% 0.56 [0.32-0.96] progression 73 (n) 122 (n) Yan 14% 0.86 [0.52-1.43] ICU 17/73 33/122 Yan 9% 0.91 [0.84-0.99] hosp. time 73 (n) 122 (n) Yan 62% 0.38 [0.22-0.68] viral time 73 (n) 122 (n) Yan 73% 0.27 [0.19-0.38] viral+ 73 (n) 122 (n) Patel (PSM) 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Patel (PSM) 25% 0.75 [0.62-0.90] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Patel (PSM) 29% 0.71 [0.58-0.85] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Patel (PSM) 26% 0.74 [0.60-0.90] PASC 1,004 (n) 1,004 (n) Li -51% 1.51 [1.11-2.05] recov. time 9 (n) 11 (n) Li 58% 0.42 [0.19-0.93] viral time 9 (n) 11 (n) Park 5% 0.95 [0.57-1.62] death 940 (n) 1,567 (n) Wee 14% 0.86 [0.48-1.55] severe case population-based cohort Wee 35% 0.65 [0.50-0.85] hosp. population-based cohort Yang 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.00] death 220 (n) 1,061 (n) POSITIVES Edelstein -761% 8.61 [1.13-34.2] rebound 15/72 1/55 Kim 31% 0.69 [0.63-0.75] death population-based cohort Kim 43% 0.57 [0.53-0.60] severe case population-based cohort Dormuth 29% 0.71 [0.54-0.93] death/hosp. 85/3,433 120/3,433 confounding Dormuth 78% 0.22 [0.05-1.02] death/hosp. 2/280 9/280 confounding Dormuth 49% 0.51 [0.31-0.84] death/hosp. 23/1,314 45/1,314 confounding Dormuth 36% 0.64 [0.39-1.05] death/hosp. 25/1,050 39/1,050 confounding Dormuth -30% 1.30 [0.79-2.12] death/hosp. 35/789 27/789 confounding Dormuth 8% 0.92 [0.78-1.09] progression 232/3,280 252/3,280 confounding Dormuth 24% 0.76 [0.45-1.29] progression 22/264 29/264 confounding Dormuth 19% 0.81 [0.62-1.05] progression 93/1,259 115/1,259 confounding Dormuth -3% 1.03 [0.74-1.45] progression 64/1,018 62/1,018 confounding Dormuth -15% 1.15 [0.79-1.69] progression 53/739 46/739 confounding Lin -633% 7.33 [0.86-62.7] oxygen 4/30 1/55 Lin 35% 0.65 [0.43-0.98] recov. time 30 (n) 55 (n) Dalton (PSM) 8% 0.92 [0.91-0.93] PASC population-based cohort Dalton (PSM) -7% 1.07 [1.02-1.12] PASC population-based cohort Fung 7% 0.93 [0.92-0.94] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Fung 13% 0.87 [0.86-0.88] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.95-1.03] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 5% 0.95 [0.86-1.04] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -3% 1.03 [0.90-1.17] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 11% 0.89 [0.74-1.06] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 30% 0.70 [0.46-1.04] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 6% 0.94 [0.84-1.04] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -4% 1.04 [0.89-1.21] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -3% 1.03 [0.91-1.16] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -5% 1.05 [0.93-1.19] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) 6% 0.94 [0.72-1.21] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -4% 1.04 [0.87-1.26] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -60% 1.60 [0.46-5.57] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Ioannou (PSM) -12% 1.12 [0.86-1.47] PASC 9,593 (n) 9,593 (n) LONG COVID Xu 12% 0.88 [0.76-1.02] hosp. time 195 (n) 120 (n) Xu 35% 0.65 [0.57-0.74] recov. time 195 (n) 120 (n) Xu 58% 0.42 [0.33-0.54] viral time 195 (n) 120 (n) Xu 47% 0.53 [0.29-0.97] PASC 195 (n) 120 (n) Durstenfeld (PSW) -14% 1.14 [0.83-1.54] PASC 57/353 176/1,258 LONG COVID Choi 37% 0.63 [0.46-0.86] death 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Choi -40% 1.40 [0.16-12.6] ICU 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Choi 20% 0.80 [0.31-2.04] oxygen 251 (n) 1,592 (n) Preiss 2% 0.98 [0.95-1.01] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Preiss 10% 0.90 [0.84-0.96] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Preiss 5% 0.95 [0.91-0.98] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Preiss 0% 1.00 [0.97-1.03] PASC population-based cohort LONG COVID Zhu -79% 1.79 [1.39-2.33] viral+ 138 (n) 155 (n) Cheng 22% 0.78 [0.60-1.00] death 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Cheng -1% 1.01 [0.74-1.37] oxygen 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Cheng 14% 0.86 [0.56-1.32] ICU 2,083 (n) 2,045 (n) Wang 13% 0.87 [0.46-1.63] death 66 (n) 55 (n) Wang -22% 1.22 [0.70-2.14] progression 66 (n) 55 (n) Henderson 84% 0.16 [0.05-0.50] hosp. confounding Yang 0% 1.00 [0.84-1.18] viral+ 362 (n) 724 (n) Yang 59% 0.41 [0.28-0.61] viral+ 362 (n) 724 (n) RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.43-2.40] death 9/68 9/69 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.47-2.23] death 13/68 13/69 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.06-15.9] ventilation 1/68 1/69 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) -35% 1.35 [0.76-2.42] no disch. 20/68 15/69 RECOVERY Horby (RCT) 19% 0.81 [0.76-0.86] viral load 68 (n) 69 (n) Li 32% 0.68 [0.47-0.98] viral+ 40/83 130/224 Wan 28% 0.72 [0.62-0.84] death 541/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 24% 0.76 [0.70-0.82] hosp. 1,772/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 18% 0.82 [0.76-0.88] progression 1,816/6,604 2,541/17,283 Wan 23% 0.77 [0.66-0.90] death 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Wan -3% 1.03 [0.70-1.52] ventilation 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Wan -8% 1.08 [0.58-2.02] ICU 1,813 (n) 5,306 (n) Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 802 (n) Shao -28% 1.28 [1.13-1.45] HRQoL 237 (n) 456 (n) Fu -280% 3.80 [0.41-35.4] ventilation 3/49 1/62 OT​1 Fu -659% 7.59 [0.95-61.0] ICU 6/49 1/62 OT​1 Fu -207% 3.07 [1.39-6.81] progression 17/49 7/62 OT​1 Shao 29% 0.71 [0.44-1.14] death 280 (n) 509 (n) Shao -28% 1.28 [1.13-1.45] misc. 237 (n) 456 (n) Yu (RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.21-4.93] severe case 3/103 3/105 OT​1 Yu (RCT) -6% 1.06 [0.79-1.43] no disch. 49/103 47/105 OT​1 Yu (RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.66-1.18] viral+ 30/103 34/105 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -175% 2.75 [0.89-8.51] death 11/228 4/228 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -200% 3.00 [0.61-14.7] ventilation 6/228 2/228 OT​1 Dian (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.06-15.9] ICU 1/228 1/228 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -94% 1.94 [1.09-3.44] progression 31/228 16/228 OT​1 Dian (PSM) -80% 1.80 [0.98-3.29] progression 27/228 15/228 OT​1 Li 18% 0.82 [0.47-1.43] death 14/73 35/150 Zhou -39% 1.39 [1.02-1.89] death 52/132 54/190 Zhou 22% 0.78 [0.56-1.09] death 37/131 69/191 Wei 0% 1.00 [0.68-1.46] death 36/264 63/461 OT​1 Wei -38% 1.38 [1.02-1.87] ventilation 61/264 77/461 OT​1 Wei -122% 2.22 [0.98-5.03] ICU 14/264 11/461 OT​1 Wei -28% 1.28 [0.99-1.67] progression 72/264 98/461 OT​1 Guo -10% 1.10 [1.01-1.20] viral time 779 (n) 1,199 (n) Lu -6% 1.06 [0.77-1.47] death 17/29 140/253 Liu -94% 1.94 [1.24-3.03] progression 27/145 41/427 Liu 24% 0.76 [0.42-1.37] progression 12/126 56/446 Peng -79% 1.79 [0.43-7.42] death 21 (n) 145 (n) Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.42-2.37] death 10/324 10/324 Chen (PSM) 80% 0.20 [0.02-1.70] ventilation 1/324 5/324 Chen (PSM) 0% 1.00 [0.33-3.07] severe case 6/324 6/324 Chen (PSM) 27% 0.73 [0.30-1.78] oxygen 8/324 11/324 Chen 1% 0.99 [0.84-1.16] viral time 324 (n) 324 (n) Chen -6% 1.06 [0.91-1.23] viral+ 171/324 162/324 Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.20] hosp. 0/830 1/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.16] hosp. 0/844 1/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 25% 0.75 [0.40-1.39] severe case 17/830 23/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 22% 0.78 [0.42-1.43] severe case 18/844 23/840 Pfizer (DB RCT) 15% 0.85 [0.66-1.09] progression 830 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 3% 0.97 [0.76-1.24] progression 844 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 36% 0.65 [0.37-1.11] symp. case 830 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 30% 0.70 [0.42-1.17] symp. case 844 (n) 840 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 5% 0.95 [0.65-1.41] symp. case 887 (n) 873 (n) Pfizer (DB RCT) 27% 0.73 [0.48-1.10] symp. case 889 (n) 873 (n) Paxlovid COVID-19 outcomes c19early.org June 2024 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors paxlovid Favors control
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