Outcomes in COVID-19 paxlovid studies
Outcomes in paxlovid studies. Pfizer has denied access to Paxlovid for independent RCTs
[Ledford ] . The only non-Pfizer RCT shows no significant difference in outcomes
[Liu ] .
[Hoertel ] find that >50% of patients that died had a contraindication for Paxlovid. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy. Population studies often do not account for the different expected outcomes for the class of patients that seek out and receive early treatment.
0
0.5
1
1.5+
All studies
32%
30
69,108
Improvement, Studies, Patients
Relative Risk
Mortality
55%
15
49,529
Ventilation
8%
4
5,218
ICU admission
11%
5
4,778
Hospitalization
37%
12
47,038
Progression
24%
6
29,746
Recovery
-4%
5
2,215
Cases
37%
1
1,971
Viral clearance
16%
11
4,025
RCTs
46%
4
5,465
RCT mortality
70%
3
3,494
Peer-reviewed
32%
21
39,339
Prophylaxis
37%
1
1,971
Early
38%
27
42,260
Late
28%
3
25,276
Paxlovid for COVID-19
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
after exclusions
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel 65+
79%
0.21 [0.05-0.82]
death
Arbel 40-64
-32%
1.32 [0.16-10.8]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.13]
death
0/576
1/569
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Tau2 = 0.11, I2 = 84.8%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
38%
0.62 [0.53-0.74]
114/15,354
502.6/26,906
38% improvement
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
28%
0.72 [0.66-0.78]
581/6,967
2,671/18,309
28% improvement
Pfizer (DB RCT)
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
cases
986 (n)
985 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.05
Prophylaxis
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
0/986
0/985
37% improvement
All studies
32%
0.68 [0.60-0.77]
695/23,307
3,173.6/46,200
32% improvement
Paxlovid COVID-19 studies
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.06, I2 = 79.5%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel 65+
79%
0.21 [0.05-0.82]
death
Arbel 40-64
-32%
1.32 [0.16-10.8]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.13]
death
0/576
1/569
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Tau2 = 0.17, I2 = 85.8%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
41%
0.59 [0.48-0.72]
114/15,320
502.6/26,678
41% improvement
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
28%
0.72 [0.66-0.78]
581/6,967
2,671/18,309
28% improvement
Pfizer (DB RCT)
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
cases
986 (n)
985 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.05
Prophylaxis
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
0/986
0/985
37% improvement
All studies
34%
0.66 [0.57-0.76]
695/23,273
3,173.6/45,972
34% improvement
Paxlovid COVID-19 studies after exclusions
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.08, I2 = 80.7%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
890 (n)
890 (n)
Arbel 65+
79%
0.21 [0.05-0.82]
Arbel 40-64
-32%
1.32 [0.16-10.8]
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.13]
0/576
1/569
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
0/1,130
10/1,130
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
population-based cohort
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
5/132
8/132
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
7/73
17/122
Tau2 = 0.03, I2 = 27.6%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
60%
0.40 [0.32-0.50]
39/8,235
196.6/16,325
60% improvement
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
280 (n)
802 (n)
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
28%
0.72 [0.66-0.78]
541/6,884
2,541/18,085
28% improvement
All studies
55%
0.45 [0.35-0.58]
580/15,119
2,737.6/34,410
55% improvement
15 paxlovid COVID-19 mortality results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.11, I2 = 74.1%, p < 0.0001
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Wong (PSM)
3%
0.97 [0.31-3.03]
890 (n)
890 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
38%
0.62 [0.23-1.72]
Bajema (PSM)
48%
0.52 [0.12-2.16]
3/1,587
5.8/1,587
Liu (RCT)
-67%
1.67 [0.62-4.45]
10/132
6/132
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.77
Early treatment
8%
0.92 [0.53-1.58]
13/2,609
11.8/2,609
8% improvement
All studies
8%
0.92 [0.53-1.58]
13/2,609
11.8/2,609
8% improvement
4 paxlovid COVID-19 mechanical ventilation results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.77
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Pfizer (DB RCT)
86%
0.14 [0.01-2.75]
0/576
3/569
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
-58%
1.58 [0.95-2.63]
Bajema (PSM)
56%
0.44 [0.21-0.92]
10/1,587
22.8/1,587
Liu (RCT)
-10%
1.10 [0.56-2.12]
132 (n)
132 (n)
Yan
14%
0.86 [0.52-1.43]
17/73
33/122
Tau2 = 0.17, I2 = 59.4%, p = 0.66
Early treatment
11%
0.89 [0.54-1.47]
27/2,368
58.8/2,410
11% improvement
All studies
11%
0.89 [0.54-1.47]
27/2,368
58.8/2,410
11% improvement
5 paxlovid COVID-19 ICU results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.17, I2 = 59.4%, p = 0.66
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
88%
0.12 [0.06-0.26]
hosp.
8/1,039
65/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
4%
0.96 [0.88-1.04]
hosp. time
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
21%
0.79 [0.65-0.95]
hosp.
Arbel 65+
73%
0.27 [0.15-0.49]
hosp.
Arbel 40-64
26%
0.74 [0.35-1.58]
hosp.
Ganatra (PSM)
56%
0.44 [0.21-0.91]
hosp.
10/1,130
23/1,130
Zhou (PSM)
84%
0.16 [0.11-0.22]
hosp.
34/2,808
752/10,849
Wong (PSM)
24%
0.76 [0.67-0.86]
hosp.
Bajema (PSM)
7%
0.93 [0.74-1.16]
hosp.
180/1,587
194.2/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
40%
0.60 [0.44-0.81]
hosp.
Yan
9%
0.91 [0.84-0.99]
hosp. time
73 (n)
122 (n)
Tau2 = 0.10, I2 = 93.1%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
41%
0.59 [0.46-0.74]
232/7,527
1,034.2/15,624
41% improvement
Wan
24%
0.76 [0.70-0.82]
hosp.
1,772/6,604
2,541/17,283
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
24%
0.76 [0.70-0.82]
1,772/6,604
2,541/17,283
24% improvement
All studies
37%
0.63 [0.53-0.75]
2,004/14,131
3,575.2/32,907
37% improvement
12 paxlovid COVID-19 hospitalization results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.06, I2 = 92.8%, p < 0.0001
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel 65+
79%
0.21 [0.05-0.82]
death
Arbel 40-64
-32%
1.32 [0.16-10.8]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.13]
death
0/576
1/569
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
Zhou (PSM)
73%
0.27 [0.13-0.58]
death
7/2,808
100/10,849
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Schwartz (PSW)
50%
0.50 [0.41-0.61]
death
population-based cohort
Bajema (PSM)
58%
0.42 [0.26-0.67]
death
20/1,587
48.6/1,587
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
Zheng (PSW)
-4%
1.04 [0.56-1.93]
death/hosp.
4,836 (n)
2,847 (n)
OT1
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Patel (PSM)
20%
0.80 [0.67-0.95]
PASC
1,004 (n)
1,004 (n)
Tau2 = 0.15, I2 = 75.3%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
47%
0.53 [0.42-0.66]
96/15,030
372.6/26,407
47% improvement
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
28%
0.72 [0.66-0.78]
541/6,884
2,541/18,085
28% improvement
All studies
44%
0.56 [0.47-0.68]
637/21,914
2,913.6/44,492
44% improvement
22 paxlovid COVID-19 serious outcomes
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.09, I2 = 75.1%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
21%
0.79 [0.69-0.90]
recov. time
686 (n)
674 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Pandit
1%
0.99 [0.83-1.17]
no recov.
n/a
n/a
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Tau2 = 0.05, I2 = 81.8%, p = 0.87
Early treatment
2%
0.98 [0.77-1.24]
0/801
0/721
2% improvement
Shao
-28%
1.28 [1.13-1.45]
HRQoL
237 (n)
456 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
-28%
1.28 [1.13-1.45]
0/237
0/456
28% increased risk
All studies
-4%
1.04 [0.82-1.33]
0/1,038
0/1,177
4% increased risk
5 paxlovid COVID-19 recovery results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.06, I2 = 89.1%, p = 0.74
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
Pfizer (DB RCT)
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
cases
986 (n)
985 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.05
Prophylaxis
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
0/986
0/985
37% improvement
All studies
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
0/986
0/985
37% improvement
1 paxlovid COVID-19 case result
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.05
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
12%
0.88 [0.83-0.93]
viral load
529 (n)
526 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
28%
0.72 [0.56-0.93]
viral+
890 (n)
890 (n)
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
16%
0.84 [0.74-0.96]
viral time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Pandit
3%
0.97 [0.83-1.14]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Liu (RCT)
5%
0.95 [0.85-1.07]
viral time
132 (n)
132 (n)
Yan
62%
0.38 [0.22-0.68]
viral time
73 (n)
122 (n)
Li
58%
0.42 [0.19-0.93]
viral time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Tau2 = 0.02, I2 = 83.2%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
22%
0.78 [0.69-0.87]
18/1,948
130/2,169
22% improvement
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.0025
Late treatment
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
40/83
130/224
32% improvement
All studies
16%
0.84 [0.78-0.90]
58/2,031
260/2,393
16% improvement
12 paxlovid COVID-19 viral clearance results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.01, I2 = 59.2%, p < 0.0001
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.13]
death
0/576
1/569
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Tau2 = 0.82, I2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13
Early treatment
70%
0.30 [0.06-1.46]
5/1,747
21/1,747
70% improvement
Pfizer (DB RCT)
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
cases
986 (n)
985 (n)
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.05
Prophylaxis
37%
0.63 [0.40-1.00]
0/986
0/985
37% improvement
All studies
46%
0.54 [0.29-1.01]
5/2,733
21/2,732
46% improvement
4 paxlovid COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trials
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.10, I2 = 18.7%, p = 0.054
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Pfizer (DB RCT)
67%
0.33 [0.01-8.13]
0/576
1/569
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
5/132
8/132
Tau2 = 0.82, I2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13
Early treatment
70%
0.30 [0.06-1.46]
5/1,747
21/1,747
70% improvement
All studies
70%
0.30 [0.06-1.46]
5/1,747
21/1,747
70% improvement
3 paxlovid COVID-19 RCT mortality results
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.82, I2 = 37.2%, p = 0.13
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]
death
890 (n)
890 (n)
Yip (PSW)
19%
0.81 [0.47-1.39]
death/ICU
Arbel 65+
79%
0.21 [0.05-0.82]
death
Arbel 40-64
-32%
1.32 [0.16-10.8]
death
Najjar-Debbiny
46%
0.54 [0.39-0.75]
severe case
population-based cohort
Li (ES)
79%
0.21 [0.15-0.28]
viral+
18/175
130/224
Lu
12%
0.88 [0.78-0.98]
viral+
n/a
n/a
Ganatra (PSM)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.81]
death
0/1,130
10/1,130
Shao
20%
0.80 [0.71-0.91]
viral time
17 (n)
114 (n)
OT1
Zhong
15%
0.85 [0.65-1.13]
recov. time
106 (n)
36 (n)
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.22-0.52]
death
Dryden-Peterson
71%
0.29 [0.12-0.71]
death
Evans
41%
0.59 [0.36-0.97]
death/hosp.
602 (n)
4,973 (n)
Liu (RCT)
38%
0.62 [0.21-1.86]
death
5/132
8/132
Durstenfeld (PSW)
-14%
1.14 [0.83-1.54]
PASC
57/353
176/1,258
LONG COVID
Lewnard
84%
0.16 [0.03-0.81]
death/ICU
n/a
n/a
Yan
31%
0.69 [0.30-1.58]
death
7/73
17/122
Li
-51%
1.51 [1.11-2.05]
recov. time
9 (n)
11 (n)
Tau2 = 0.16, I2 = 85.2%, p < 0.0001
Early treatment
41%
0.59 [0.47-0.74]
87/4,526
353/9,936
41% improvement
Li
32%
0.68 [0.47-0.98]
viral+
40/83
130/224
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
Wan
28%
0.72 [0.62-0.84]
death
541/6,604
2,541/17,283
Shao
29%
0.71 [0.44-1.14]
death
280 (n)
802 (n)
Tau2 = 0.00, I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.0001
Late treatment
28%
0.72 [0.66-0.78]
581/6,967
2,671/18,309
28% improvement
All studies
32%
0.68 [0.59-0.80]
668/11,493
3,024/28,245
32% improvement
22 paxlovid COVID-19 peer reviewed studies
c19 early.org/pl Jun 2023
Tau2 = 0.07, I2 = 78.4%, p < 0.0001
Effect extraction pre-specified (most serious outcome)
1 OT: comparison with other treatment
Favors paxlovid
Favors control
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2+
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
96%
0.04 [0.00-0.68]
death
0/1,039
12/1,046
Improvement, RR [CI]
Treatment
Control
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
95%
0.05 [0.00-0.89]
death
0/697
9/682
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
88%
0.12 [0.06-0.26]
hosp.
8/1,039
65/1,046
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
89%
0.11 [0.04-0.28]
hosp.
5/697
44/682
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
-11%
1.11 [0.85-1.44]
progression
686 (n)
674 (n)
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
21%
0.79 [0.69-0.90]
recov. time
686 (n)
674 (n)
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
12%
0.88 [0.83-0.93]
viral load
529 (n)
526 (n)
EPIC-HR
Hammond (DB RCT)
5%
0.95 [0.90-1.00]
viral load
529 (n)
526 (n)
Wong (PSM)
66%
0.34 [0.23-0.50]