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Oral Nirmatrelvir for High-Risk, Nonhospitalized Adults with Covid-19

Hammond et al., New England Journal of Medicine, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2118542, EPIC-HR, NCT04960202
Feb 2022  
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Mortality 96% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality (b) 95% Hospitalization 88% Hospitalization (b) 89% Progression -11% Recovery, resolution 17% Recovery, alleviation 21% Viral load, day 10 12% Viral load, day 14 5% Paxlovid  EPIC-HR  EARLY TREATMENT  DB RCT Is early treatment with paxlovid beneficial for COVID-19? Double-blind RCT 2,085 patients in multiple countries (Jul - Dec 2021) Lower mortality (p=0.00047) and hospitalization (p<0.0001) c19early.org Hammond et al., New England J. Medicine, Feb 2022 Favorspaxlovid Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
EPIC-HR RCT, 1,039 higher risk patients treated with paxlovid (PF-07321332 + ritonavir) and 1,046 control patients, showing significantly lower mortality and hospitalization with treatment. Some results were reported later in Hammond et al., and some results are only available in the registry.
risk of death, 96.0% lower, RR 0.04, p < 0.001, treatment 0 of 1,039 (0.0%), control 12 of 1,046 (1.1%), NNT 87, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm), within 5 days.
risk of death, 94.8% lower, RR 0.05, p = 0.002, treatment 0 of 697 (0.0%), control 9 of 682 (1.3%), NNT 76, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm), within 3 days.
risk of hospitalization, 87.6% lower, RR 0.12, p < 0.001, treatment 8 of 1,039 (0.8%), control 65 of 1,046 (6.2%), NNT 18, within 5 days.
risk of hospitalization, 88.9% lower, RR 0.11, p < 0.001, treatment 5 of 697 (0.7%), control 44 of 682 (6.5%), NNT 17, within 3 days.
risk of progression, 10.8% higher, OR 1.11, p = 0.45, treatment 686, control 674, from registry results, day 28, RR approximated with OR.
risk of no recovery, 16.7% lower, HR 0.83, p = 0.002, treatment 686, control 674, inverted to make HR<1 favor treatment, sustained resolution, day 28.
risk of no recovery, 21.3% lower, HR 0.79, p < 0.001, treatment 686, control 674, inverted to make HR<1 favor treatment, sustained alleviation, day 28.
viral load, 12.1% lower, relative load 0.88, p < 0.001, treatment mean 4.53 (±2.1) n=529, control mean 3.98 (±2.11) n=526, from registry results, day 10.
viral load, 5.1% lower, relative load 0.95, p = 0.048, treatment mean 5.1 (±2.13) n=529, control mean 4.84 (±2.11) n=526, from registry results, day 14.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Hammond et al., 16 Feb 2022, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, placebo-controlled, multiple countries, peer-reviewed, 12 authors, study period 16 July, 2021 - 9 December, 2021, average treatment delay 2.89 days, trial NCT04960202 (history) (EPIC-HR).
This PaperPaxlovidAll
Oral Nirmatrelvir for High-Risk, Nonhospitalized Adults with Covid-19
Ph.D Jennifer Hammond, Heidi Leister-Tebbe, M.P.H Annie Gardner, M.S.P.T Paula Abreu, Ph.D Weihang Bao, Ph.D Wayne Wisemandle, Ph.D Marylynn Baniecki, B.Sc Victoria M Hendrick, Ph.D Bharat Damle, M.D Abraham Simón-Campos, M.D Rienk Pypstra, M.D James M Rusnak
New England Journal of Medicine, doi:10.1056/nejmoa2118542
BACKGROUND Nirmatrelvir is an orally administered severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 main protease (M pro ) inhibitor with potent pan-human-coronavirus activity in vitro. METHODS We conducted a phase 2-3 double-blind, randomized, controlled trial in which symptomatic, unvaccinated, nonhospitalized adults at high risk for progression to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either 300 mg of nirmatrelvir plus 100 mg of ritonavir (a pharmacokinetic enhancer) or placebo every 12 hours for 5 days. Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause through day 28, viral load, and safety were evaluated. RESULTS A total of 2246 patients underwent randomization; 1120 patients received nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (nirmatrelvir group) and 1126 received placebo (placebo group). In the planned interim analysis of patients treated within 3 days after symptom onset (modified intention-to treat population, comprising 774 of the 1361 patients in the full analysis population), the incidence of Covid-19-related hospitalization or death by day 28 was lower in the nirmatrelvir group than in the placebo group by 6.32 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI], −9.04 to −3.59; P<0.001; relative risk reduction, 89.1%); the incidence was 0.77% (3 of 389 patients) in the nirmatrelvir group, with 0 deaths, as compared with 7.01% (27 of 385 patients) in the placebo group, with 7 deaths. Efficacy was maintained in the final analysis involving the 1379 patients in the modified intention-to-treat population, with a difference of −5.81 percentage points (95% CI, −7.78 to −3.84; P<0.001; relative risk reduction, 88.9%). All 13 deaths occurred in the placebo group. The viral load was lower with nirmaltrelvir plus ritonavir than with placebo at day 5 of treatment, with an adjusted mean difference of −0.868 log 10 copies per milliliter when treatment was initiated within 3 days after the onset of symptoms. The incidence of adverse events that emerged during the treatment period was similar in the two groups (any adverse event, 22.6% with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir vs. 23.9% with placebo; serious adverse events, 1.6% vs. 6.6%; and adverse events leading to discontinuation of the drugs or placebo, 2.1% vs. 4.2%). Dysgeusia (5.6% vs. 0.3%) and diarrhea (3.1% vs. 1.6%) occurred more frequently with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir than with placebo. CONCLUSIONS Treatment of symptomatic Covid-19 with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir resulted in a risk of progression to severe Covid-19 that was 89% lower than the risk with placebo, without evident safety concerns. (Supported by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04960202.
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