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c19early.org COVID-19 treatment researchMolnupiravirMolnupiravir (more..)
Melatonin Meta
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Outcomes in COVID-19 molnupiravir studies

Outcomes in molnupiravir studies. Potential risks include the creation of dangerous variants and mutagenicity, carcinogenicity, teratogenicity, and embryotoxicity Hadj Hassine, Huntsman, Swanstrom, Waters, Zibat. Multiple analyses have identified variants potentially created by molnupiravir Fountain-Jones, Sanderson, twitter.com. There is substantial publication bias. Multiple trials have not reported results and did not respond to requests Lawrence.
0 0.5 1 1.5+ All studies 15% 34 109,506 Improvement, Studies, Patients Relative Risk Mortality 23% 15 83,307 Ventilation 46% 5 7,016 ICU admission 19% 3 1,836 Hospitalization 2% 18 79,431 Progression 25% 5 33,432 Recovery 19% 9 27,145 Cases 24% 1 1,527 Viral clearance 30% 10 7,150 RCTs 38% 14 32,322 RCT mortality 45% 4 26,955 Peer-reviewed 21% 24 81,355 Prophylaxis 24% 1 1,527 Early 16% 29 84,252 Late 11% 4 23,727 Molnupiravir for COVID-19 c19early.org Sep 2023 Favorsmolnupiravir Favorscontrol after exclusions
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] death 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 Optimus (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.31-0.58] viral+ 38/175 93/180 Khoo (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.55-3.26] no recov. 8/12 3/6 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] death 1/709 9/699 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Wong (PSM) 52% 0.48 [0.40-0.59] death 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Yip (PSW) -12% 1.12 [0.68-1.82] death/ICU Zou (RCT) 29% 0.71 [0.28-1.85] recov. time 77 (n) 31 (n) Flisiak 39% 0.61 [0.38-0.97] death 20/203 63/387 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] oxygen 0/90 1/90 Kneidinger -15% 1.15 [0.56-2.37] severe case 8/46 26/172 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 19% 0.81 [0.46-1.43] death 22/2,661 27/2,661 Arbel 65+ 74% 0.26 [0.10-0.73] death 4/845 137/12,724 Arbel 40-64 -1182% 12.82 [3.41-48.2] death 4/224 7/6,075 Suzuki (PSM) -100% 2.00 [0.34-11.9] death 2/230 3/690 Brown -101% 2.01 [0.43-9.38] hosp. 8/442 2/222 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] death 3/12,529 5/12,525 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.61-0.95] death Liu -162% 2.62 [0.11-60.6] ICU 1/26 0/16 Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Zheng -100% 2.00 [1.23-3.23] death/hosp. 61/2,689 34/3,331 OT​1 Bajema (PSM) 18% 0.82 [0.52-1.29] death 24/897 29.0/897 Inaba 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.1] death 0/84 1/210 Zheng (PSW) -285% 3.85 [1.54-10.0] death/hosp. 11/802 33/4,836 OT​1 Evans 51% 0.49 [0.29-0.83] death/hosp. 359 (n) 4,973 (n) Goodwin -110% 2.10 [0.19-22.9] death 1/80 2/336 Tazare -9% 1.09 [0.93-1.27] death/hosp. Butt -9% 1.09 [0.73-1.63] death/hosp. 48/1,459 44/1,459 Tau​2 = 0.25, I​2 = 81.9%, p = 0.16 Early treatment 16% 0.84 [0.65-1.07] 287/28,224 582.0/56,028 16% lower risk 033864 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​2 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control 035424 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​2 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] death 11/216 1/75 Wan 11% 0.89 [0.81-0.98] death 704/6,153 2,541/17,283 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.0047 Late treatment 11% 0.89 [0.83-0.97] 715/6,369 2,542/17,358 11% lower risk MOVe-AHEAD Alpizar (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] symp. case 78/763 103/764 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.049 Prophylaxis 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] 78/763 103/764 24% lower risk All studies 15% 0.85 [0.71-1.02] 1,080/35,356 3,227.0/74,150 15% lower risk 34 molnupiravir COVID-19 studies c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.14, I​2 = 79.4%, p = 0.076 Effect extraction pre-specified 1 OT: comparison with other treatment2 FUTILITY: terminated for futility, results pending Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] death 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 Optimus (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.31-0.58] viral+ 38/175 93/180 Khoo (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.55-3.26] no recov. 8/12 3/6 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] death 1/709 9/699 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Wong (PSM) 52% 0.48 [0.40-0.59] death 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Yip (PSW) -12% 1.12 [0.68-1.82] death/ICU Zou (RCT) 29% 0.71 [0.28-1.85] recov. time 77 (n) 31 (n) Flisiak 39% 0.61 [0.38-0.97] death 20/203 63/387 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] oxygen 0/90 1/90 Kneidinger -15% 1.15 [0.56-2.37] severe case 8/46 26/172 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 19% 0.81 [0.46-1.43] death 22/2,661 27/2,661 Arbel 65+ 74% 0.26 [0.10-0.73] death 4/845 137/12,724 Arbel 40-64 -1182% 12.82 [3.41-48.2] death 4/224 7/6,075 Suzuki (PSM) -100% 2.00 [0.34-11.9] death 2/230 3/690 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] death 3/12,529 5/12,525 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.61-0.95] death Liu -162% 2.62 [0.11-60.6] ICU 1/26 0/16 Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Zheng -100% 2.00 [1.23-3.23] death/hosp. 61/2,689 34/3,331 OT​1 Bajema (PSM) 18% 0.82 [0.52-1.29] death 24/897 29.0/897 Inaba 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.1] death 0/84 1/210 Evans 51% 0.49 [0.29-0.83] death/hosp. 359 (n) 4,973 (n) Goodwin -110% 2.10 [0.19-22.9] death 1/80 2/336 Tazare -9% 1.09 [0.93-1.27] death/hosp. Butt -9% 1.09 [0.73-1.63] death/hosp. 48/1,459 44/1,459 Tau​2 = 0.22, I​2 = 80.4%, p = 0.032 Early treatment 23% 0.77 [0.60-0.98] 268/26,980 547.0/50,970 23% lower risk 033864 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​2 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control 035424 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​2 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] death 11/216 1/75 Wan 11% 0.89 [0.81-0.98] death 704/6,153 2,541/17,283 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.0047 Late treatment 11% 0.89 [0.83-0.97] 715/6,369 2,542/17,358 11% lower risk MOVe-AHEAD Alpizar (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] symp. case 78/763 103/764 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.049 Prophylaxis 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] 78/763 103/764 24% lower risk All studies 20% 0.80 [0.67-0.95] 1,061/34,112 3,192.0/69,092 20% lower risk 32 molnupiravir COVID-19 studies after exclusions c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.12, I​2 = 77.9%, p = 0.012 Effect extraction pre-specified 1 OT: comparison with other treatment2 FUTILITY: terminated for futility, results pending Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] 1/709 9/699 Wong (PSM) 52% 0.48 [0.40-0.59] 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Flisiak 39% 0.61 [0.38-0.97] 20/203 63/387 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 19% 0.81 [0.46-1.43] 22/2,661 27/2,661 Arbel 65+ 74% 0.26 [0.10-0.73] 4/845 137/12,724 Arbel 40-64 -1182% 12.82 [3.41-48.2] 4/224 7/6,075 Suzuki (PSM) -100% 2.00 [0.34-11.9] 2/230 3/690 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] 3/12,529 5/12,525 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.61-0.95] Bajema (PSM) 18% 0.82 [0.52-1.29] 24/897 29.0/897 Inaba 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.1] 0/84 1/210 Goodwin -110% 2.10 [0.19-22.9] 1/80 2/336 Tau​2 = 0.20, I​2 = 72.9%, p = 0.094 Early treatment 27% 0.73 [0.51-1.06] 81/20,458 284.0/39,122 27% lower risk MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] 11/216 1/75 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 11% 0.89 [0.81-0.98] 704/6,153 2,541/17,283 Tau​2 = 0.52, I​2 = 49.4%, p = 0.71 Late treatment -28% 1.28 [0.37-4.38] 715/6,369 2,542/17,358 28% higher risk All studies 23% 0.77 [0.57-1.03] 796/26,827 2,826.0/56,480 23% lower risk 15 molnupiravir COVID-19 mortality results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.14, I​2 = 79.5%, p = 0.08 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Wong (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.17-1.01] 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Flisiak 5% 0.95 [0.39-2.32] 7/203 14/387 Suzuki (PSM) 57% 0.43 [0.02-10.5] 0/230 1/690 Wong (PSM) 60% 0.40 [0.19-0.84] Bajema (PSM) 17% 0.83 [0.17-4.12] 3/897 3.6/897 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.0083 Early treatment 46% 0.54 [0.34-0.85] 10/3,186 18.6/3,830 46% lower risk All studies 46% 0.54 [0.34-0.85] 10/3,186 18.6/3,830 46% lower risk 5 molnupiravir COVID-19 mechanical ventilation results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.0083 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Wong (PSM) 26% 0.74 [0.45-1.21] Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Liu -162% 2.62 [0.11-60.6] 1/26 0/16 Bajema (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.41-2.37] 10/897 10.1/897 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.35 Early treatment 19% 0.81 [0.53-1.25] 11/923 10.1/913 19% lower risk All studies 19% 0.81 [0.53-1.25] 11/923 10.1/913 19% lower risk 3 molnupiravir COVID-19 ICU results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.35 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.14-12.5] hosp. 3/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Wong (PSM) 6% 0.94 [0.89-1.00] hosp. time 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Yip (PSW) -17% 1.17 [0.99-1.39] hosp. Flisiak -1% 1.01 [0.71-1.43] hosp. time 203 (n) 387 (n) AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-2.03] hosp. 0/90 4/90 Arbel 65+ 45% 0.55 [0.34-0.88] hosp. 18/845 513/12,724 Arbel 40-64 -80% 1.80 [0.86-3.77] hosp. 8/224 97/6,075 Brown -101% 2.01 [0.43-9.38] hosp. 8/442 2/222 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) -7% 1.07 [0.81-1.41] hosp. 103/12,529 96/12,525 Wong (PSM) 2% 0.98 [0.89-1.06] hosp. Liu 18% 0.82 [0.63-1.06] hosp. time 26 (n) 16 (n) Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Bajema (PSM) -30% 1.30 [1.01-1.68] hosp. 162/897 124.3/897 Inaba -127% 2.27 [0.60-7.25] hosp. 5/84 8/210 Goodwin 58% 0.42 [0.05-3.23] hosp. 1/80 10/336 Tau​2 = 0.02, I​2 = 69.9%, p = 0.6 Early treatment 3% 0.97 [0.86-1.09] 331/19,005 917.3/36,990 3% lower risk Wan 1% 0.99 [0.93-1.05] hosp. 2,298/6,153 2,541/17,283 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.7 Late treatment 1% 0.99 [0.93-1.05] 2,298/6,153 2,541/17,283 1% lower risk All studies 2% 0.98 [0.90-1.08] 2,629/25,158 3,458.3/54,273 2% lower risk 18 molnupiravir COVID-19 hospitalization results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.01, I​2 = 68.1%, p = 0.73 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] death 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] death 1/709 9/699 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Wong (PSM) 52% 0.48 [0.40-0.59] death 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Yip (PSW) -12% 1.12 [0.68-1.82] death/ICU Flisiak 39% 0.61 [0.38-0.97] death 20/203 63/387 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] oxygen 0/90 1/90 Kneidinger -15% 1.15 [0.56-2.37] severe case 8/46 26/172 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 19% 0.81 [0.46-1.43] death 22/2,661 27/2,661 Arbel 65+ 74% 0.26 [0.10-0.73] death 4/845 137/12,724 Arbel 40-64 -1182% 12.82 [3.41-48.2] death 4/224 7/6,075 Suzuki (PSM) -100% 2.00 [0.34-11.9] death 2/230 3/690 Brown -101% 2.01 [0.43-9.38] hosp. 8/442 2/222 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] death 3/12,529 5/12,525 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.61-0.95] death Liu -162% 2.62 [0.11-60.6] ICU 1/26 0/16 Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Zheng -100% 2.00 [1.23-3.23] death/hosp. 61/2,689 34/3,331 OT​1 Bajema (PSM) 18% 0.82 [0.52-1.29] death 24/897 29.0/897 Inaba 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.1] death 0/84 1/210 Zheng (PSW) -285% 3.85 [1.54-10.0] death/hosp. 11/802 33/4,836 OT​1 Evans 51% 0.49 [0.29-0.83] death/hosp. 359 (n) 4,973 (n) Goodwin -110% 2.10 [0.19-22.9] death 1/80 2/336 Tazare -9% 1.09 [0.93-1.27] death/hosp. Butt -9% 1.09 [0.73-1.63] death/hosp. 48/1,459 44/1,459 Tau​2 = 0.25, I​2 = 81.6%, p = 0.28 Early treatment 14% 0.86 [0.67-1.12] 241/27,960 486.0/55,811 14% lower risk MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] death 11/216 1/75 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 11% 0.89 [0.81-0.98] death 704/6,153 2,541/17,283 Tau​2 = 0.52, I​2 = 49.4%, p = 0.71 Late treatment -28% 1.28 [0.37-4.38] 715/6,369 2,542/17,358 28% higher risk All studies 12% 0.88 [0.71-1.08] 956/34,329 3,028.0/73,169 12% lower risk 28 molnupiravir COVID-19 serious outcomes c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.14, I​2 = 80.5%, p = 0.21 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Hetero (RCT) 33% 0.67 [0.54-0.82] recov. time 371 (n) 370 (n) Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Khoo (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.55-3.26] no recov. 8/12 3/6 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 15% 0.85 [0.75-0.98] recovery 709 (n) 699 (n) Zou (RCT) 29% 0.71 [0.28-1.85] recov. time 77 (n) 31 (n) AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) -12% 1.12 [0.71-1.79] no recov. 27/90 24/90 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 22% 0.78 [0.75-0.81] no recov. 3,856/12,403 4,838/12,140 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 36.4%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 20% 0.80 [0.72-0.88] 3,891/13,662 4,865/13,336 20% lower risk 033864 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​1 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control 035424 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​1 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 1% 0.99 [0.68-1.45] no recov. 72 (n) 75 (n) Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.97 Late treatment 1% 0.99 [0.74-1.34] 0/72 0/75 1% lower risk All studies 19% 0.81 [0.74-0.88] 3,891/13,734 4,865/13,411 19% lower risk 9 molnupiravir COVID-19 recovery results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 22.1%, p < 0.0001 1 FUTILITY: terminated for futility, results pending Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ MOVe-AHEAD Alpizar (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] symp. case 78/763 103/764 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.049 Prophylaxis 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] 78/763 103/764 24% lower risk All studies 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] 78/763 103/764 24% lower risk 1 molnupiravir COVID-19 case result c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.049 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 49% 0.51 [0.22-1.18] viral+ 10/118 9/54 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Optimus (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.31-0.58] viral+ 38/175 93/180 Tippabhotla (RCT) 59% 0.41 [0.29-0.57] viral+ 42/610 103/610 Wong (PSM) 28% 0.72 [0.61-0.87] viral+ 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Zou (RCT) 10% 0.90 [0.83-0.97] viral time 76 (n) 31 (n) AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 23% 0.77 [0.58-1.09] viral+ 90 (n) 90 (n) PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) -95% 1.95 [1.15-3.31] viral load 21 (n) 11 (n) Liu 21% 0.79 [0.59-1.05] viral time 26 (n) 16 (n) Sinha (RCT) 48% 0.52 [0.42-0.63] viral load 608 (n) 610 (n) Tau​2 = 0.10, I​2 = 88.8%, p = 0.0017 Early treatment 32% 0.68 [0.54-0.87] 90/3,580 205/3,458 32% lower risk MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.62-1.25] viral+ 26/52 34/60 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.49 Late treatment 12% 0.88 [0.62-1.25] 26/52 34/60 12% lower risk All studies 30% 0.70 [0.56-0.87] 116/3,632 239/3,518 30% lower risk 10 molnupiravir COVID-19 viral clearance results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.10, I​2 = 87.5%, p = 0.0015 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] death 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 Optimus (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.31-0.58] viral+ 38/175 93/180 Khoo (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.55-3.26] no recov. 8/12 3/6 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] death 1/709 9/699 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Zou (RCT) 29% 0.71 [0.28-1.85] recov. time 77 (n) 31 (n) AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] oxygen 0/90 1/90 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] death 3/12,529 5/12,525 Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Tau​2 = 0.03, I​2 = 13.1%, p < 0.0001 Early treatment 54% 0.46 [0.35-0.63] 73/15,321 174/15,183 54% lower risk 033864 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​1 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control 035424 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​1 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] death 11/216 1/75 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.77 Late treatment -8% 1.08 [0.67-1.73] 11/216 1/75 8% higher risk MOVe-AHEAD Alpizar (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] symp. case 78/763 103/764 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.049 Prophylaxis 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] 78/763 103/764 24% lower risk All studies 38% 0.62 [0.46-0.84] 162/16,300 278/16,022 38% lower risk 14 molnupiravir COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trials c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.12, I​2 = 49.8%, p = 0.0021 Effect extraction pre-specified 1 FUTILITY: terminated for futility, results pending Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] 1/709 9/699 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] 3/12,529 5/12,525 Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.048 Early treatment 67% 0.33 [0.11-0.99] 4/13,378 15/13,286 67% lower risk MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] 11/216 1/75 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.2 Late treatment -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] 11/216 1/75 282% higher risk All studies 45% 0.55 [0.13-2.38] 15/13,594 16/13,361 45% lower risk 4 molnupiravir COVID-19 RCT mortality results c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 1.13, I​2 = 51.1%, p = 0.43 Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Khoo (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.55-3.26] no recov. 8/12 3/6 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] death 1/709 9/699 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Wong (PSM) 52% 0.48 [0.40-0.59] death 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Yip (PSW) -12% 1.12 [0.68-1.82] death/ICU Zou (RCT) 29% 0.71 [0.28-1.85] recov. time 77 (n) 31 (n) Flisiak 39% 0.61 [0.38-0.97] death 20/203 63/387 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] oxygen 0/90 1/90 Kneidinger -15% 1.15 [0.56-2.37] severe case 8/46 26/172 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 19% 0.81 [0.46-1.43] death 22/2,661 27/2,661 Suzuki (PSM) -100% 2.00 [0.34-11.9] death 2/230 3/690 Brown -101% 2.01 [0.43-9.38] hosp. 8/442 2/222 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] death 3/12,529 5/12,525 Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.61-0.95] death Liu -162% 2.62 [0.11-60.6] ICU 1/26 0/16 Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Zheng -100% 2.00 [1.23-3.23] death/hosp. 61/2,689 34/3,331 OT​1 Evans 51% 0.49 [0.29-0.83] death/hosp. 359 (n) 4,973 (n) Goodwin -110% 2.10 [0.19-22.9] death 1/80 2/336 Butt -9% 1.09 [0.73-1.63] death/hosp. 48/1,459 44/1,459 Tau​2 = 0.18, I​2 = 73.0%, p = 0.048 Early treatment 23% 0.77 [0.60-1.00] 206/25,057 281/31,044 23% lower risk MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] death 11/216 1/75 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Wan 11% 0.89 [0.81-0.98] death 704/6,153 2,541/17,283 Tau​2 = 0.52, I​2 = 49.4%, p = 0.71 Late treatment -28% 1.28 [0.37-4.38] 715/6,369 2,542/17,358 28% higher risk MOVe-AHEAD Alpizar (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] symp. case 78/763 103/764 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Tau​2 = 0.00, I​2 = 0.0%, p = 0.049 Prophylaxis 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] 78/763 103/764 24% lower risk All studies 21% 0.79 [0.65-0.96] 999/32,189 2,926/49,166 21% lower risk 24 molnupiravir COVID-19 peer reviewed studies c19early.org Sep 2023 Tau​2 = 0.10, I​2 = 73.2%, p = 0.018 Effect extraction pre-specified(most serious outcome) 1 OT: comparison with other treatment Favors molnupiravir Favors control 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Fischer (RCT) 77% 0.23 [0.01-5.69] death 0/140 1/62 Improvement, RR [CI] Treatment Control Fischer (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.01-8.33] death 0/55 1/62 Fischer (RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.03] death 0/62 1/62 Fischer (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.0] death 0/23 1/62 Fischer (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.14-12.5] hosp. 3/140 1/62 Fischer (RCT) -13% 1.13 [0.07-17.6] hosp. 1/55 1/62 Fischer (RCT) -100% 2.00 [0.19-21.5] hosp. 2/62 1/62 Fischer (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.0] hosp. 0/23 1/62 Fischer (RCT) 49% 0.51 [0.22-1.18] viral+ 10/118 9/54 Fischer (RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] viral+ 1/53 9/54 Fischer (RCT) 30% 0.70 [0.25-1.93] viral+ 5/43 9/54 Fischer (RCT) -9% 1.09 [0.37-3.18] viral+ 4/22 9/54 Fischer (RCT) 92% 0.08 [0.01-0.62] viral+ 1/117 6/54 Fischer (RCT) 92% 0.08 [0.01-0.75] viral+ 0/53 6/54 Fischer (RCT) 91% 0.09 [0.01-0.83] viral+ 0/42 6/54 Fischer (RCT) 59% 0.41 [0.05-3.20] viral+ 1/22 6/54 Fischer (RCT) 30% 0.70 [0.37-1.36] viral+ 19/137 12/61 Fischer (RCT) 62% 0.38 [0.13-1.12] viral+ 4/53 12/61 Fischer (RCT) -8% 1.08 [0.54-2.18] viral+ 13/61 12/61 Fischer (RCT) 56% 0.44 [0.11-1.83] viral+ 2/23 12/61 Hetero (RCT) 70% 0.30 [0.13-0.70] hosp. 7/371 23/370 Hetero (RCT) 33% 0.67 [0.54-0.82] recov. time 371 (n) 370 (n) Optimus (RCT) 58% 0.42 [0.31-0.58] viral+ 38/175 93/180 Khoo (RCT) -33% 1.33 [0.55-3.26] no recov. 8/12 3/6 Khoo (RCT) -100% 2.00 [0.28-14.2] no recov. 4/12 1/6 Khoo (RCT) -100% 2.00 [0.90-4.43] no recov. 4/4 3/6 Khoo (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.28-3.54] no recov. 2/4 3/6 Khoo (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.28-3.54] no recov. 2/4 3/6 Khoo (RCT) -50% 1.50 [0.13-17.7] no recov. 1/4 1/6 Khoo (RCT) -200% 3.00 [0.39-23.1] no recov. 2/4 1/6 Khoo (RCT) -50% 1.50 [0.13-17.7] no recov. 1/4 1/6 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-0.86] death 1/709 9/699 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 30% 0.70 [0.48-1.00] death/hosp. 48/709 68/699 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 94% 0.06 [0.00-0.97] death/hosp. 0/37 9/47 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 50% 0.50 [0.20-1.26] death/hosp. 6/75 13/82 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.42-1.38] death/hosp. 18/237 22/221 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 42% 0.58 [0.20-1.68] death/hosp. 5/47 7/38 MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 15% 0.85 [0.75-0.98] recovery 709 (n) 699 (n) MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 19% 0.81 [0.71-0.92] recovery 709 (n) 699 (n) MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 15% 0.85 [0.75-0.97] recovery 709 (n) 699 (n) MOVe-OUT Jayk Ber.. (DB RCT) 14% 0.86 [0.76-0.97] recovery 709 (n) 699 (n) Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.22-1.34] hosp. 7/610 13/610 Tippabhotla (RCT) 46% 0.54 [0.41-0.71] no improv. 67/610 125/610 Tippabhotla (RCT) 52% 0.48 [0.42-0.54] no improv. 199/610 417/610 Tippabhotla (RCT) 25% 0.75 [0.71-0.79] no improv. 433/610 576/610 Tippabhotla (RCT) 59% 0.41 [0.29-0.57] viral+ 42/610 103/610 Tippabhotla (RCT) 81% 0.19 [0.15-0.24] viral+ 62/610 327/610 Tippabhotla (RCT) 78% 0.22 [0.19-0.27] viral+ 113/610 505/610 Wong (PSM) 52% 0.48 [0.40-0.59] death 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Wong (PSM) 58% 0.42 [0.17-1.01] ventilation 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Wong (PSM) 40% 0.60 [0.52-0.69] progression 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Wong (PSM) 6% 0.94 [0.89-1.00] hosp. time 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Wong (PSM) 28% 0.72 [0.61-0.87] viral+ 1,856 (n) 1,856 (n) Yip (PSW) -12% 1.12 [0.68-1.82] death/ICU Yip (PSW) -17% 1.17 [0.99-1.39] hosp. Zou (RCT) 29% 0.71 [0.28-1.85] recov. time 77 (n) 31 (n) Zou (RCT) 10% 0.90 [0.83-0.97] viral time 76 (n) 31 (n) Zou (RCT) 51% 0.49 [0.28-0.84] viral+ 18/76 15/31 Zou (RCT) 37% 0.63 [0.51-0.78] viral+ 45/76 29/31 Zou (RCT) 18% 0.82 [0.73-0.92] viral+ 62/76 31/31 Flisiak 39% 0.61 [0.38-0.97] death 20/203 63/387 Flisiak 5% 0.95 [0.39-2.32] ventilation 7/203 14/387 Flisiak -1% 1.01 [0.71-1.43] hosp. time 203 (n) 387 (n) AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 67% 0.33 [0.01-8.08] oxygen 0/90 1/90 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 89% 0.11 [0.01-2.03] hosp. 0/90 4/90 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) -12% 1.12 [0.71-1.79] no recov. 27/90 24/90 AGILE CST-2 Khoo (DB RCT) 23% 0.77 [0.58-1.09] viral+ 90 (n) 90 (n) Kneidinger -15% 1.15 [0.56-2.37] severe case 8/46 26/172 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 19% 0.81 [0.46-1.43] death 22/2,661 27/2,661 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 17% 0.83 [0.57-1.21] progression 50/2,661 60/2,661 Najjar-Deb.. (PSM) 25% 0.75 [0.51-1.12] severe case 43/2,661 57/2,661 Arbel 65+ 74% 0.26 [0.10-0.73] death 4/845 137/12,724 Arbel 65+ -1182% 12.82 [3.41-48.2] death 4/224 7/6,075 Arbel 65+ 45% 0.55 [0.34-0.88] hosp. 18/845 513/12,724 Arbel 65+ -80% 1.80 [0.86-3.77] hosp. 8/224 97/6,075 Arbel 40-64 -1182% 12.82 [3.41-48.2] death 4/224 7/6,075 Arbel 40-64 -80% 1.80 [0.86-3.77] hosp. 8/224 97/6,075 Suzuki (PSM) -100% 2.00 [0.34-11.9] death 2/230 3/690 Suzuki (PSM) 57% 0.43 [0.02-10.5] ventilation 0/230 1/690 Suzuki (PSM) 53% 0.47 [0.22-0.98] progression 9/230 58/690 Brown -101% 2.01 [0.43-9.38] hosp. 8/442 2/222 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 40% 0.60 [0.14-2.51] death 3/12,529 5/12,525 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) -6% 1.06 [0.81-1.41] death/hosp. 105/12,529 98/12,525 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) -7% 1.07 [0.81-1.41] hosp. 103/12,529 96/12,525 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 2% 0.98 [0.94-1.01] transmission 3,887/10,803 3,873/10,548 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 22% 0.78 [0.75-0.81] no recov. 3,856/12,403 4,838/12,140 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 19% 0.81 [0.78-0.83] recov. time 12,403 (n) 12,140 (n) PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 30% 0.70 [0.67-0.73] no recov. 2,675/12,403 3,766/12,140 PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 26% 0.74 [0.71-0.76] recov. time 12,403 (n) 12,140 (n) PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) -95% 1.95 [1.15-3.31] viral load 21 (n) 11 (n) PANORAMIC Butler (RCT) 92% 0.08 [0.05-0.14] viral load 33 (n) 26 (n) Wong (PSM) 24% 0.76 [0.61-0.95] death Wong (PSM) 60% 0.40 [0.19-0.84] ventilation Wong (PSM) 26% 0.74 [0.45-1.21] ICU Wong (PSM) 2% 0.98 [0.89-1.06] hosp. Liu -162% 2.62 [0.11-60.6] ICU 1/26 0/16 Liu 8% 0.92 [0.17-4.94] progression 3/26 2/16 Liu 18% 0.82 [0.63-1.06] hosp. time 26 (n) 16 (n) Liu 21% 0.79 [0.59-1.05] viral time 26 (n) 16 (n) Liu -23% 1.23 [0.12-12.5] viral+ 2/26 1/16 Liu 28% 0.72 [0.29-1.76] viral+ 7/26 6/16 Liu 38% 0.62 [0.41-0.92] viral+ 14/26 14/16 Liu 18% 0.82 [0.64-1.05] viral+ 20/26 15/16 Liu 12% 0.88 [0.75-1.05] viral+ 23/26 16/16 Sinha (RCT) 65% 0.35 [0.16-0.73] hosp. 9/608 26/610 Sinha (RCT) 53% 0.47 [0.26-0.85] no improv. 16/608 34/610 Sinha (RCT) 48% 0.52 [0.42-0.63] viral load 608 (n) 610 (n) Zheng -100% 2.00 [1.23-3.23] death/hosp. 61/2,689 34/3,331 OT​1 Zheng -85% 1.85 [1.14-3.03] death/hosp. 55/2,689 32/3,331 OT​1 Bajema (PSM) 18% 0.82 [0.52-1.29] death 24/897 29.0/897 Bajema (PSM) 49% 0.51 [0.20-1.27] death 7/897 13.8/897 Bajema (PSM) 17% 0.83 [0.17-4.12] ventilation 3/897 3.6/897 Bajema (PSM) 1% 0.99 [0.41-2.37] ICU 10/897 10.1/897 Bajema (PSM) -30% 1.30 [1.01-1.68] hosp. 162/897 124.3/897 Bajema (PSM) 9% 0.91 [0.59-1.41] hosp. 37/897 40.5/897 Inaba 58% 0.42 [0.02-10.1] death 0/84 1/210 Inaba -127% 2.27 [0.60-7.25] death/hosp. 5/84 8/210 Inaba -127% 2.27 [0.60-7.25] hosp. 5/84 8/210 Zheng (PSW) -285% 3.85 [1.54-10.0] death/hosp. 11/802 33/4,836 OT​1 Evans 51% 0.49 [0.29-0.83] death/hosp. 359 (n) 4,973 (n) Goodwin -110% 2.10 [0.19-22.9] death 1/80 2/336 Goodwin 58% 0.42 [0.05-3.23] hosp. 1/80 10/336 Goodwin 53% 0.47 [0.11-1.97] hosp. 2/80 18/336 Tazare -9% 1.09 [0.93-1.27] death/hosp. Butt -9% 1.09 [0.73-1.63] death/hosp. 48/1,459 44/1,459 033864 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​2 035424 (RCT) 0% 1.00 [0.50-2.00] improv. n/a n/a FUTILITY, PENDING​2 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -282% 3.82 [0.50-29.1] death 11/216 1/75 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -217% 3.17 [0.34-29.8] death 3/71 1/75 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -317% 4.17 [0.48-36.4] death 4/72 1/75 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -311% 4.11 [0.47-35.9] death 4/73 1/75 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 1% 0.99 [0.68-1.45] no recov. 72 (n) 75 (n) MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.61-1.28] no recov. 73 (n) 75 (n) MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -1% 1.01 [0.69-1.47] no recov. 73 (n) 75 (n) MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 12% 0.88 [0.62-1.25] viral+ 26/52 34/60 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -2% 1.02 [0.74-1.41] viral+ 29/50 34/60 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 21% 0.79 [0.56-1.13] viral+ 27/60 34/60 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 8% 0.92 [0.41-2.08] viral+ 9/53 10/54 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) -48% 1.48 [0.72-3.03] viral+ 14/51 10/54 MOVe-IN Arribas (DB RCT) 21% 0.79 [0.34-1.84] viral+ 8/55 10/54 Wan 11% 0.89 [0.81-0.98] death 704/6,153 2,541/17,283 Wan 1% 0.99 [0.93-1.05] hosp. 2,298/6,153 2,541/17,283 Wan -4% 1.04 [0.98-1.10] progression 2,300/6,153 2,541/17,283 MOVe-AHEAD Alpizar (DB RCT) 24% 0.76 [0.57-1.01] symp. case 78/763 103/764 Molnupiravir COVID-19 outcomes c19early.org Sep 2023 1 OT: comparison with other treatment2 FUTILITY: terminated for futility, results pending Favors molnupiravir Favors control
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