Kidney Transplant Recipients and Omicron: Outcomes, effect of vaccines and the efficacy and safety of novel treatments

Gleeson et al., medRxiv, doi:10.1101/2022.05.03.22274524, May 2022
Early treatmentProspective ยท 116 patients ยท UK ยท Dec 2021 โ€“ Feb 2022
Molnupiravir for COVID-19
Higher mortality and ICU admission
Not statistically significant ยท p = 0.52 (mortality) and p = 0.52 (ICU admission)
Retrospective 116 kidney transplant recipients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the community during the Omicron era in the UK, showing lower hospitalization with sotrovimab, but no significant difference with molnupiravir. Two molnupiravir-treated patients requiring dialysis had features of thrombotic microangiopathy, raising potential safety concerns.
Potential risks of molnupiravir include the creation of dangerous variants, and mutagenicity, carcinogenicity, teratogenicity, and embryotoxicity1-15. Multiple analyses have identified variants potentially created by molnupiravir16-20. Studies show significantly increased risk of acute kidney injury21, cardiovascular toxocity22, and neurological symptoms21. Treatment may increase viral rebound23,24.
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, the United Kingdom, is very poor with very low average efficacy for approved treatments25. The United Kingdom focused on expensive high-profit treatments, approving only one low-cost early treatment, which required a prescription and had limited adoption. The high-cost prescription treatment strategy reduces the probability of early treatment due to access and cost barriers, and eliminates complementary and synergistic benefits seen with many low-cost treatments.
Study covers molnupiravir and sotrovimab.
OutcomeImprovementEffect ยท pTreatmentControl
risk of death 128.6% higher ยท RR 2.29 ยท p = 0.52 128.6% higherRR 2.29p = 0.52 1 of 21 (4.8%) 1 of 48 (2.1%) treatment 1 of 21 (4.8%), control 1 of 48 (2.1%)COVID-19
risk of death 14.3% higher ยท RR 1.14 ยท p = 1.00 14.3% higherRR 1.14p = 1.00 1 of 21 (4.8%) 2 of 48 (4.2%) treatment 1 of 21 (4.8%), control 2 of 48 (4.2%)all-cause
risk of ICU admission 128.6% higher ยท RR 2.29 ยท p = 0.52 128.6% higherRR 2.29p = 0.52 1 of 21 (4.8%) 1 of 48 (2.1%) treatment 1 of 21 (4.8%), control 1 of 48 (2.1%)
risk of hospitalization 31.4% lower ยท RR 0.69 ยท p = 0.74 31.4% lowerRR 0.69p = 0.74 3 of 21 (14.3%) 10 of 48 (20.8%) treatment 3 of 21 (14.3%), control 10 of 48 (20.8%)NNT 15

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates.

Gleeson et al., 3 May 2022, prospective, United Kingdom, preprint, 14 authors, study period 21 December, 2021 - 10 February, 2022. Contact: m.willicombe08@imperial.ac.uk.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org November 2026 United Kingdom Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines USA Brazil France Italy Canada Pakistan Spain Vietnam Japan Nepal Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Nigeria Taiwan Fiji Zambia Bosnia-Herzegovina Dominican Republic Bolivia Cรดte d'Ivoire Eritrea Togo Iceland New Zealand Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel Haiti North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia The United Kingdom favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was moderate.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% โ‰ค0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org November 2026 United Kingdom Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines USA Brazil France Italy Canada Pakistan Spain Vietnam Japan Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Taiwan Fiji Zambia Dominican Rep. Bolivia Cรดte d'Ivoire Eritrea Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia The UK favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was moderate.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% โ‰ค0%
Kidney Transplant Recipients and Omicron: Outcomes, effect of vaccines and the efficacy and safety of novel treatments
Sarah Gleeson, Paul Martin, Tina Thomson, Amarpreet Thind, Maria Prendecki, Katrina J Spensley, Candice L Clarke, Candice Roufosse, Graham Pickard, David Thomas, Stephen P Mcadoo, Liz Lightstone, Peter Kelleher, Dr Michelle Willicombe
doi:10.1101/2022.05.03.22274524
We aimed to describe the outcomes of Omicron infection in kidney transplant recipients (KTR), compare the efficacy of the community therapeutic interventions and report the safety profile of molnupiravir. From 142 KTRs diagnosed with COVID-19 infection after Omicron had become the dominant variant in the UK, 116 (78.9%) cases were diagnosed in the community; 47 receiving sotrovimab, 21 molnupiravir and 48 no treatment. 10 (20.8%) non-treated patients were hospitalised following infection, which was significantly higher than the sotrovimab group (2.1%), p=0.0048, but not the molnupiravir treated group (14.3%), p=0.47. The only admission following sotrovimab occurred in a patient infected with BA.2. One patient from the molnupiravir and no-treatment groups required ICU support, and both subsequently died, with one other death in the no-treatment group. No patient receiving sotrovimab died. 6/116 (5.2%) patients required dialysis following their diagnosis; 2 (9.5%) patients receiving molnupiravir and 4 (8.3%) no-treatment. This requirement was significantly higher in the molnupiravir group compared with the sotrovimab treated patients, in whom no patient required dialysis, p=0.035. Both molnupiravir treated patients requiring dialysis had features of systemic thrombotic microangiopathy. Post-vaccination serostatus was available in 110 patients. Seropositive patients were less likely to require hospital admission compared with seronegative patients, 6 (7.0%) and 6 (25.0%) respectively, p=0.023. Seropositive patients were also less likely to require dialysis therapy, p=0.016. In conclusion, sotrovimab treatment in the community was associated with superior patient and transplant outcomes; it's clinical efficacy against the BA.2 variant requires a rapid review. The treatment benefit of molnupiravir was not evident, and wider safety reporting in transplant patients is needed.
risk group with poor infection outcomes, immunosuppressed people often with significant comorbidities, have been excluded from policy informing studies from the start of the pandemic. Relying on extrapolating data from these studies to inform management of transplant recipients, may and has led to suboptimal outcomes.
References
Benotmane, Pre-exposure prophylaxis with Evusheldโ„ข elicits limited neutralizing activity against the omicron variant in kidney transplant patients, medRxiv
Bernal, Molnupiravir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19 in Nonhospitalized Patients, N Engl J Med
Broecker, Clinical-pathological correlations in post-transplant thrombotic microangiopathy, Histopathology
Callaghan, Real-world Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1-S Vaccines Against SARS-CoV-2 in Solid Organ and Islet Transplant Recipients, Transplantation
Chavarot, Early treatment with sotrovimab monoclonal antibody in kidney transplant recipients with Omicron infection
Extance, Covid-19: What is the evidence for the antiviral molnupiravir?, BMJ
Gupta, Early Treatment for Covid-19 with SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody Sotrovimab, N Engl J Med
Iketani, Antibody evasion properties of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages, Nature
Kemp, SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection, Nature
Prendecki, Immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in kidney transplant recipients, Lancet
Villanego, Trends in COVID-19 Outcomes in Kidney Transplant Recipients During the Period of Omicron Variant Predominance, Transplantation
Willicombe, Scanlon, Miranda, Loud, Lightstone, Should we be clinically assessing antibody responses to covid vaccines in immunocompromised people?, BMJ
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One patient from the molnupiravir and no-treatment groups required ICU support, and both subsequently died, with one other death in the no-treatment group. No patient receiving sotrovimab died. 6/116 (5.2%) patients required dialysis following their diagnosis; 2 (9.5%) patients receiving molnupiravir and 4 (8.3%) no-treatment. This requirement was significantly higher in the molnupiravir group compared with the sotrovimab treated patients, in whom no patient required dialysis, p=0.035. Both molnupiravir treated patients requiring dialysis had features of systemic thrombotic microangiopathy.</jats:p><jats:p>Post-vaccination serostatus was available in 110 patients. Seropositive patients were less likely to require hospital admission compared with seronegative patients, 6 (7.0%) and 6 (25.0%) respectively, p=0.023. 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