Randomized Trial of Molnupiravir or Placebo in Patients Hospitalized with Covid-19

Arribas et al., NEJM Evidence, doi:10.1056/EVIDoa2100044, MOVe-IN, NCT04575584, Dec 2021

https://c19early.org/arribas.html

RCT 304 hospitalized patients, 218 treated with molnupiravir, showing no significant differences. MOVe-IN MK-4482-001. NCT04575584 (history).

Potential risks of molnupiravir include the creation of dangerous variants, and mutagenicity, carcinogenicity, teratogenicity, and embryotoxicity1-14. Multiple analyses have identified variants potentially created by molnupiravir15-19.

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risk of death, 281.9% higher, RR 3.82, p = 0.31, treatment 11 of 216 (5.1%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), combined, excluding imputed deaths.

risk of death, 216.9% higher, RR 3.17, p = 0.36, treatment 3 of 71 (4.2%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), 800mg, excluding imputed death.

risk of death, 316.7% higher, RR 4.17, p = 0.20, treatment 4 of 72 (5.6%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), 400mg, excluding imputed death.

risk of death, 311.0% higher, RR 4.11, p = 0.21, treatment 4 of 73 (5.5%), control 1 of 75 (1.3%), 200mg.

risk of no recovery, 1.0% lower, RR 0.99, p = 0.96, treatment 72, control 75, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment, 800mg.

risk of no recovery, 11.5% lower, RR 0.88, p = 0.53, treatment 73, control 75, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment, 400mg.

risk of no recovery, 1.0% higher, RR 1.01, p = 0.96, treatment 73, control 75, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment, 200mg.

recovery time, no change, relative time 1.00, treatment 72, control 75, 800mg.

recovery time, no change, relative time 1.00, treatment 73, control 75, 400mg.

recovery time, no change, relative time 1.00, treatment 73, control 75, 200mg.

risk of no viral clearance, 11.8% lower, RR 0.88, p = 0.57, treatment 26 of 52 (50.0%), control 34 of 60 (56.7%), NNT 15, 800mg, Table S16, day 15 mid-recovery.

risk of no viral clearance, 2.4% higher, RR 1.02, p = 1.00, treatment 29 of 50 (58.0%), control 34 of 60 (56.7%), 400mg, Table S16, day 15 mid-recovery.

risk of no viral clearance, 20.6% lower, RR 0.79, p = 0.27, treatment 27 of 60 (45.0%), control 34 of 60 (56.7%), NNT 8.6, 200mg, Table S16, day 15 mid-recovery.

risk of no viral clearance, 8.3% lower, RR 0.92, p = 1.00, treatment 9 of 53 (17.0%), control 10 of 54 (18.5%), NNT 65, 800mg, Table S16, day 29.

risk of no viral clearance, 48.2% higher, RR 1.48, p = 0.35, treatment 14 of 51 (27.5%), control 10 of 54 (18.5%), 400mg, Table S16, day 29.

risk of no viral clearance, 21.5% lower, RR 0.79, p = 0.61, treatment 8 of 55 (14.5%), control 10 of 54 (18.5%), NNT 25, 200mg, Table S16, day 29.

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates

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Arribas et al., 16 Dec 2021, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, multiple countries, peer-reviewed, 21 authors, study period 19 October, 2020 - 12 January, 2021, average treatment delay 7.1 days, trial NCT04575584 (history) (MOVe-IN).

This Paper Molnupiravir All

Randomized Trial of Molnupiravir or Placebo in Patients Hospitalized with Covid-19

José R Arribas, M.D Sanjay Bhagani, M.D Suzana M Lobo, M.D Ilsiyar Khaertynova, M.D Lourdes Mateu, M.D Roman Fishchuk, M.D William Y Park, M.D Khetam Hussein, M.D Sei Won Kim, M.D Jade Ghosn, Michelle L Brown, Ph.D Ying Zhang, Ph.D Wei Gao, Ph.D Christopher Assaid, Ph.D Jay A Grobler, Ph.D Julie Strizki, Mary Vesnesky, M.D Amanda Paschke, M.D Joan R Butterton, Pharm.D Carisa De Anda

NEJM Evidence, doi:10.1056/evidoa2100044

BACKGROUND Molnupiravir is an oral prodrug of b-D-N4-hydroxycytidine, active against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro and in animal models. We report data from the phase 2 component of MOVe-IN, a clinical trial evaluating molnupiravir in patients hospitalized with Covid-19. METHODS We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase 2/3 trial in patients 18 years old and older requiring in-hospital treatment for laboratoryconfirmed Covid-19 with symptom onset 10 or fewer days before randomization. Participants were randomly assigned to placebo or molnupiravir 200 mg, 400 mg, or 800 mg (1:1:1:1 ratio), twice daily for 5 days. Primary end points were safety and sustained recovery (participant alive and either not hospitalized or medically ready for discharge) through day 29. RESULTS Of 304 randomly assigned participants, 218 received at least one dose of molnupiravir and 75 of placebo. At baseline, 74.0% had at least one risk factor for severe Covid-19. Adverse events were reported in 121 of 218 (55.5%) molnupiravir-treated and 46 of 75 (61.3%) placebo-treated participants, with no apparent dose effect on adverse event rates and no evidence of hematologic toxicity based on prespecified adverse events. Of 16 confirmed deaths, most were in participants with severe Covid-19 (75.0%), with underlying comorbidities (87.5%), older than 60 years of age (81.3%), and/or symptom duration longer than 5 days (75.0%) at randomization. Median time to sustained recovery was 9 days in all groups, with similar day 29 recovery rates ranging from 81.5% to 85.2%.

Author Affiliations 1 Infectious Diseases Unit, Hospital Universitario La Paz-IdiPAZ, Madrid 2 Department of Infectious Diseases, Royal Free Hospital, London

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Late treatment
is less effective

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