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Impact of the use of oral antiviral agents on the risk of hospitalization in community COVID-19 patients

Yip et al., Clinical Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1093/cid/ciac687 (date from preprint)
May 2022  
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Combined death/ventilati.. 19% Improvement Relative Risk Hospitalization 21% Paxlovid for COVID-19  Yip et al.  EARLY TREATMENT Is early treatment with paxlovid beneficial for COVID-19? Retrospective 88,075 patients in China (February - March 2022) Lower hospitalization with paxlovid (p=0.011) c19early.org Yip et al., Clinical Infectious Diseases, May 2022 Favorspaxlovid Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
Propensity score weighted retrospective of 93,883 outpatients in Hong Kong, 5,808 treated with molnupiravir and 4,921 treated with paxlovid, showing higher hospitalization and higher combined mortality/mechanical ventilation/ICU admission with molnupiravir, without statistical significance; and lower hospitalization and combined mortality/mechanical ventilation/ICU admission with paxlovid, statistically significant only for hospitalization.
Resistance. Variants may be resistant to paxlovid1-3. Use may promote the emergence of variants that weaken host immunity and potentially contribute to long COVID4.
Confounding by contraindication. Hoertel et al. find that over 50% of patients that died had a contraindication for the use of Paxlovid5. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy.
Black box warning. The FDA notes that "severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid"6.
AKI. Kamo et al. show significantly increased risk of acute kidney injury.
Study covers paxlovid and molnupiravir.
combined death/ventilation/ICU, 19.0% lower, HR 0.81, p = 0.45, treatment 23 of 4,921 (0.5%), control 151 of 83,154 (0.2%), propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards, day 30.
risk of hospitalization, 21.0% lower, HR 0.79, p = 0.01, treatment 172 of 4,921 (3.5%), control 1,322 of 83,154 (1.6%), propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards, day 30.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Yip et al., 24 May 2022, retrospective, placebo-controlled, China, peer-reviewed, 11 authors, study period 16 February, 2022 - 31 March, 2022. Contact: wonglaihung@cuhk.edu.hk.
This PaperPaxlovidAll
PhD Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip, MD Chung-Yan Lui, BSc Mandy Sze-Man Lai, MD Wai-Sun Wong, MPhil Yee-Kit Tse, Hon-Ming Bosco, MD Ma, MD Elsie Hui, MFM Maria Kw Leung, Henry Lik-Yuen, MD Chan, MD Shu-Cheong Hui, Lai-Hung Grace, MBChB Wong
Impact of the use of oral antiviral agents on the risk of hospitalization in community COVID-19 patients
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' 'Non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients who attended designated outpatient clinics between 16 ' 'February and 31 March 2022 were identified. Patients hospitalized on the day of the first ' 'clinic appointment or used both oral antivirals were excluded. The primary endpoint was ' 'hospitalization. The secondary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit admission, ' 'invasive mechanical ventilation use, and/or death.</jats:p>\n' ' </jats:sec>\n' ' <jats:sec>\n' ' <jats:title>Results</jats:title>\n' ' <jats:p>Of 93,883 patients, 83,154 (88.6%), 5,808 (6.2%), and 4,921 (5.2%) ' 'were oral antiviral non-users, molnupiravir users, and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir users ' 'respectively. Compared to non-users, oral antiviral users were older and had more ' 'comorbidities, lower complete vaccination rate, and more hospitalizations in the previous ' 'year. Molnupiravir users were older, and had more comorbidities, lower complete vaccination ' 'rate, and more hospitalizations in the previous year than nirmatrelvir/ritonavir users. At a ' 'median follow-up of 30 days, 1,931 (2.1%) patients were hospitalized and 225 (0.2%) patients ' 'developed the secondary endpoint. After propensity score weighting, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir ' 'use (weighted hazard ratio 0.79, 95%CI 0.65-0.95, P\u2009=\u20090.011) but not molnupiravir ' 'use (weighted hazard ratio 1.17, 95%CI 0.99-1.39, P\u2009=\u20090.062) was associated with a ' 'reduced risk of hospitalization than non-users. The use of molnupiravir or ' 'nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was not associated with a lower risk of the secondary endpoint as ' 'compared to non-users.</jats:p>\n' ' </jats:sec>\n' ' <jats:sec>\n' ' <jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title>\n' ' <jats:p>Use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir but not molnupiravir was associated ' 'with a reduced risk of hospitalization in real-world non-hospitalized COVID-19 ' 'patients.</jats:p>\n' ' </jats:sec>', 'DOI': '10.1093/cid/ciac687', 'type': 'journal-article', 'created': {'date-parts': [[2022, 8, 29]], 'date-time': '2022-08-29T01:48:15Z', 'timestamp': 1661737695000}, 'source': 'Crossref', 'is-referenced-by-count': 0, 'title': 'Impact of the use of oral antiviral agents on the risk of hospitalization in community COVID-19 ' 'patients', 'prefix': '10.1093', 'author': [ { 'ORCID': 'http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1819-2464', 'authenticated-orcid': False, 'given': 'Terry Cheuk Fung', 'family': 'Yip', 'sequence': 'first', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, {'name': 'Institute of Digestive Disease'}]}, { 'given': 'Grace Chung Yan', 'family': 'Lui', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, { 'name': 'Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Jockey Club ' 'School of Public Health & Primary Care'}]}, { 'given': 'Mandy Sze Man', 'family': 'Lai', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}]}, { 'given': 'Vincent Wai Sun', 'family': 'Wong', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, { 'name': 'Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Jockey Club ' 'School of Public Health & Primary Care'}]}, { 'given': 'Yee Kit', 'family': 'Tse', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, {'name': 'Institute of Digestive Disease'}]}, { 'given': 'Bosco Hon Ming', 'family': 'Ma', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [{'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}]}, { 'given': 'Elsie', 'family': 'Hui', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [{'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}]}, { 'given': 'Maria KW', 'family': 'Leung', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ { 'name': 'Department of Family Medicine, Prince of Wales Hospital, ' 'Hospital Authority , Hong Kong'}]}, { 'given': 'Henry Lik Yuen', 'family': 'Chan', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, { 'name': 'Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong ; Hong ' 'Kong'}, {'name': 'Department of Internal Medicine, Union Hospital , Hong Kong'}]}, { 'given': 'David Shu Cheong', 'family': 'Hui', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, { 'name': 'Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Jockey Club ' 'School of Public Health & Primary Care'}]}, { 'ORCID': 'http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2863-9389', 'authenticated-orcid': False, 'given': 'Grace Lai Hung', 'family': 'Wong', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': [ {'name': 'Department of Medicine and Therapeutics'}, {'name': 'Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC)'}, {'name': 'Institute of Digestive Disease'}]}], 'member': '286', 'published-online': {'date-parts': [[2022, 8, 29]]}, 'container-title': 'Clinical Infectious Diseases', 'original-title': [], 'language': 'en', 'link': [ { 'URL': 'https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/cid/ciac687/45601511/ciac687.pdf', 'content-type': 'application/pdf', 'content-version': 'am', 'intended-application': 'syndication'}, { 'URL': 'https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/cid/ciac687/45601511/ciac687.pdf', 'content-type': 'unspecified', 'content-version': 'vor', 'intended-application': 'similarity-checking'}], 'deposited': { 'date-parts': [[2022, 8, 29]], 'date-time': '2022-08-29T01:48:16Z', 'timestamp': 1661737696000}, 'score': 1, 'resource': { 'primary': { 'URL': 'https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciac687/6678124'}}, 'subtitle': [], 'short-title': [], 'issued': {'date-parts': [[2022, 8, 29]]}, 'references-count': 0, 'URL': 'http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciac687', 'relation': {}, 'ISSN': ['1058-4838', '1537-6591'], 'subject': ['Infectious Diseases', 'Microbiology (medical)'], 'published': {'date-parts': [[2022, 8, 29]]}}
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