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All Studies   All Outcomes    Recent:   
0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Mortality 66% Improvement Relative Risk Ventilation 38% ICU admission -58% Hospitalization 24% Paxlovid for COVID-19  Wong et al.  EARLY TREATMENT Is early treatment with paxlovid beneficial for COVID-19? PSM retrospective 60,214 patients in China (February - June 2022) Lower mortality (p<0.0001) and hospitalization (p<0.0001) c19early.org Wong et al., The Lancet, October 2022 Favors paxlovid Favors control

Real-world effectiveness of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir against mortality, hospitalisation, and in-hospital outcomes among community-dwelling, ambulatory patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during the omicron wave in Hong Kong: an observational study

Wong et al., The Lancet, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01586-0
Oct 2022  
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PSM retrospective 1,074,856 outpatients in Hong Kong, showing lower mortality and hospitalization with paxlovid.
Confounding by contraindication. Hoertel et al. find that over 50% of patients that died had a contraindication for the use of Paxlovid Hoertel. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy.
Black box warning. The FDA notes that "severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid" FDA.
Study covers molnupiravir and paxlovid.
risk of death, 66.0% lower, HR 0.34, p < 0.001, treatment 5,542, control 54,672, propensity score matching.
risk of mechanical ventilation, 38.0% lower, HR 0.62, p = 0.36, treatment 5,542, control 54,672, propensity score matching.
risk of ICU admission, 58.0% higher, HR 1.58, p = 0.08, treatment 5,542, control 54,672, propensity score matching.
risk of hospitalization, 24.0% lower, HR 0.76, p < 0.001, treatment 5,542, control 54,672, propensity score matching.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Wong et al., 8 Oct 2022, retrospective, China, peer-reviewed, 6 authors, study period 26 February, 2022 - 26 June, 2022. Contact: carlosho@hku.hk, bcowling@hku.hk.
This PaperPaxlovidAll
Real-world effectiveness of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir against mortality, hospitalisation, and inhospital outcomes among community-dwelling, ambulatory patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during the omicron wave in Hong Kong: an observational study
Dr Carlos K H Wong, Ivan C H Au, Kristy T K Lau, Prof Y Lau, Prof Benjamin J Cowling, Gabriel M Leung, Pharmacy (C K H Wong Phd, C H Au Bsc, MSc T K Lau, Prof Lau Phd, Prof J Cowling
Background Little is known about the real-world effectiveness of oral antivirals against the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant. We aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness of two oral antiviral drugs among communitydwelling COVID-19 outpatients in Hong Kong. Methods In this observational study, we used data from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority to identify an unselected, territory-wide cohort of non-hospitalised patients with an officially registered diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection between Feb 26 and June 26, 2022, during the period in which the omicron subvariant BA.2.2 was dominant in Hong Kong. We used a retrospective cohort design as primary analysis, and a case-control design as sensitivity analysis. We identified patients with COVID-19 who received either molnupiravir (800 mg twice daily for 5 days) or nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (nirmatrelvir 300 mg and ritonavir 100 mg twice daily for 5 days, or nirmatrelvir 150 mg and ritonavir 100 mg if estimated glomerular filtration rate was 30-59 mL/min per 1•73 m²). Outpatient oral antiviral users were matched with controls using propensity score (1:10) according to age, sex, date of SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosis, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and vaccination status. Study outcomes were death, COVID-19-related hospitalisation, and in-hospital disease progression (in-hospital death, invasive mechanical ventilation, or intensive care unit admission). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox regression for the primary analysis, and odds ratios in oral antiviral users compared with non-users by logistic regression for the sensitivity analysis. Findings Among 1 074 856 non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19, 5383 received molnupiravir and 6464 received nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir in the community setting. Patients were followed up for a median of 103 days in the molnupiravir group and 99 days in the nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir group. Compared with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir users, those on molnupiravir were older (4758 [85•9%] vs 4418 [88.7%] aged >60 years) and less likely to have been fully vaccinated (1850 [33•4%] vs 800 [16•1%]). Molnupiravir use was associated with lower risks of death (HR 0•76 [95% CI 0•61-0•95]) and in-hospital disease progression (0•57 [0•43-0•76]) than non-use was, whereas risk of hospitalisation was similar in both groups (0•98 [0•89-1•06]). Nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir use was associated with lower risks of death (0•34 [0•22-0•52]), hospitalisation (0•76 [0•67-0•86]), and in-hospital disease progression (0•57 [0•38-0•87]) than non-use was. We consistently found reduced risks of mortality and hospitalisation associated with early oral antiviral use among older patients. The findings from the case-control analysis broadly supported those from the primary analysis. Interpretation During Hong Kong's wave of SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariant BA.2.2, among non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19, early initiation of novel oral antivirals was associated with reduced..
Molnupiravir Control Not hospitalised Hospitalised with no oxygen therapy Supplemental oxygen without ventilation or mechanical ventilation Discharged In-hospital death Nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir Control disease burden and vaccine effectiveness. He has not provided scientific advice to either company related to COVID-19 antiviral effectiveness, and he has not received any funding from Pfizer or AstraZeneca for any research on antiviral effectiveness including the current work. All other authors declare no competing interests. Data sharing The clinical outcome data and vaccination records were extracted from the Hospital Authority database in Hong Kong and data on confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were extracted from the eSARS data provided by the Centre for Health Protection. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under licence for this study.
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