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Antiviral efficacy of oral ensitrelvir versus oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir in COVID-19

Schilling et al., medRxiv, doi:10.1101/2025.05.18.25327861, PLATCOV, NCT05041907, May 2025
https://c19early.org/schilling4pl.html
Hospitalization, COVID-19 5% Improvement Relative Risk Hospitalization, all cause -43% Recovery time, all 8% Recovery time, fever 14% Clearance half-life 55% primary Paxlovid  PLATCOV  EARLY TREATMENT  RCT Is early treatment with paxlovid beneficial for COVID-19? RCT 392 patients in multiple countries (March 2023 - April 2024) Faster recovery (p=0.0059) and improved viral clearance (p<0.0001) c19early.org Schilling et al., medRxiv, May 2025 Favorspaxlovid Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
RCT 604 low-risk adults with early COVID-19 symptoms showing significantly improved SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance with both ensitrelvir and paxlovid.
Inclusion criteria selected for low-risk patients with high viral loads which may not generalize to high-risk patients or patients treated prior to having high viral load.
Authors indicate that "between March 2023 and April 2024 the three study arms randomised 604 patients", however figure S7 shows paxlovid patients starting before July 2022.
120 day long COVID results in the protocol are not reported.
The protocol was modified mid-trial in October 2024: the number of patients was increased, the swabbing schedule was changed, and patient self-swabbing was added. Results appear to be improved in the post-change period.
The swabbing schedule in the paper conflicts with the October 2024 change reported in the protocol ("now swabbing day 0 to day 5 once or twice per day to characterise viral clearance").
Study covers ensitrelvir and paxlovid.
risk of hospitalization, 5.0% lower, RR 0.95, p = 1.00, treatment 1 of 201 (0.5%), control 1 of 191 (0.5%), NNT 3839, COVID-19 related.
risk of hospitalization, 42.5% higher, RR 1.43, p = 1.00, treatment 3 of 201 (1.5%), control 2 of 191 (1.0%), all cause.
recovery time, 8.5% lower, relative time 0.92, p = 0.006, treatment mean 5.4 (±1.81) n=201, control mean 5.9 (±1.76) n=191, all.
recovery time, 14.3% lower, relative time 0.86, p = 0.37, treatment mean 1.2 (±2.53) n=201, control mean 1.4 (±1.76) n=191, fever.
relative clearance half-life, 55.2% better, RR 0.45, p < 0.001, treatment median 5.2 IQR 2.8 n=201, control median 11.6 IQR 6.4 n=191, primary outcome.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Schilling et al., 21 May 2025, Randomized Controlled Trial, multiple countries, preprint, 37 authors, study period March 2023 - April 2024, trial NCT05041907 (history) (PLATCOV). Contact: william@tropmedres.ac.
Antiviral efficacy of oral ensitrelvir versus oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir in COVID-19
William Hk Schilling, MD Podjanee Jittamala, PhD Phrutsamon Wongnak, James A Watson, MBBS Simon Boyd, MD Viravarn Luvira, MD Tanaya Siripoon, MD Thundon Ngamprasertchai, PhD Elizabeth M Batty, Ellen Beer, MBBS Shivani Singh, Tanatchakorn Asawasriworanan, MBBS Timothy Seers, MD Koukeo Phommasone, MBBS Terry John Evans, PhD Varaporn Kruabkontho, MBA Thatsanun Ngernseng, Pharm.D Jaruwan Tubprasert, PhD Mohammad Yazid Abdad, Wanassanan Madmanee, Jindarat Kouhathong, Kanokon Suwannasin, MSc Watcharee Pagornrat, MSc Tianrat Piteekan, MD Borimas Hanboonkunupakarn, MD Kittiyod Poovorawan, MD Manus Potaporn, MD Attasit Srisubat, MD Bootsakorn Loharjun, Kesinee Chotivanich, Mallika Imwong, Sasithon Pukrittayakamee, Arjen M Dondorp, Nicholas Pj Day, MD Watcharapong Piyaphanee, MD Weerapong Phumratanaprapin, Nicholas J White
doi:10.1101/2025.05.18.25327861
Background: Ensitrelvir is an oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 with the same molecular target as ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir -the current oral first-line treatment. There have been no direct comparisons between the two drugs. Methods: In an open label controlled adaptive pharmacometric platform trial, low-risk adult patients aged 18-60 years with early symptomatic COVID-19 (<4 days of symptoms) were randomised concurrently to one of eight treatment arms including ensitrelvir, ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, and no study drug. The primary endpoint was the rate of oropharyngeal viral clearance assessed in a modified intention-to-treat population (mITT), defined as patients with >3 days of follow-up. Viral clearance rate was derived under a Bayesian hierarchical linear model fitted to the log 10 viral densities in standardised duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily over five days (14 measurements). This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05041907). Findings: Between March 2023 and April 2024 the three study arms randomised 604 patients concurrently in Thailand and Lao PDR (ensitrelvir 202; ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir 207; no study drug 195) among 903 patients enrolled. All patients recovered uneventfully. Ensitrelvir was very well tolerated and did not cause dysgeusia. Median (interquartile range) estimated SARS-CoV-2 clearance half-lives were 5.9 hours (4.0 to 8.6) with ensitrelvir; 5.2 hours (3.8 to
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DOI record: { "DOI": "10.1101/2025.05.18.25327861", "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2025.05.18.25327861", "abstract": "<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Ensitrelvir is an oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 with the same molecular target as ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir - the current oral first-line treatment. There have been no direct comparisons between the two drugs.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>In an open label controlled adaptive pharmacometric platform trial, low-risk adult patients aged 18-60 years with early symptomatic COVID-19 (&lt;4 days of symptoms) were randomised concurrently to one of eight treatment arms including ensitrelvir, ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, and no study drug. The primary endpoint was the rate of oropharyngeal viral clearance assessed in a modified intention-to-treat population (mITT), defined as patients with ≥3 days of follow-up. Viral clearance rate was derived under a Bayesian hierarchical linear model fitted to the log<jats:sub>10</jats:sub>viral densities in standardised duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily over five days (14 measurements). This trial is registered at<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http://ClinicalTrials.gov\">ClinicalTrials.gov</jats:ext-link>(<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"clintrialgov\" xlink:href=\"NCT05041907\">NCT05041907</jats:ext-link>).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Findings</jats:title><jats:p>Between March 2023 and April 2024 the three study arms randomised 604 patients concurrently in Thailand and Lao PDR (ensitrelvir 202; ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir 207; no study drug 195) among 903 patients enrolled. All patients recovered uneventfully. Ensitrelvir was very well tolerated and did not cause dysgeusia. Median (interquartile range) estimated SARS-CoV-2 clearance half-lives were 5.9 hours (4.0 to 8.6) with ensitrelvir; 5.2 hours (3.8 to 6.6) with nirmatrelvir; and 11.6 hours (8.1 to 14.5) with no study drug. Viral clearance following ensitrelvir was 82% (95% credible interval, CrI: 61 to 104%) faster than no study drug and 16% (95% CrI: 5 to 25%) slower than ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir. Viral rebound occurred in 15 (7%) of the nirmatrelvir group and 10 (5%) of the ensitrelvir group (p=0.4).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>Both ensitrelvir and nirmatrelvir markedly accelerate oropharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance. Ensitrelvir is an efficacious and well tolerated alternative to currently available antivirals in treating COVID-19.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Funding</jats:title><jats:p>“Finding treatments for COVID-19: A phase 2 multi-centre adaptive platform trial to assess antiviral pharmacodynamics in early symptomatic COVID-19 (PLAT-COV)” is supported by the Wellcome Trust Grant ref: 223195/Z/21/Z through the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Research in context</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Evidence before this study</jats:title><jats:p>We searched PubMed for studies published in English from Jan 1, 2020, to April 10, 2025, using the terms: “randomised” AND [“nirmatrelvir OR paxlovid”] AND “ensitrelvir”. Both ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir and ensitrelvir have shown in-vivo antiviral activity and clinical benefit, but there have been no direct randomised head-to-head comparisons. Comparisons between the preregistration studies are confounded by substantial differences in the study populations, and timing of the studies.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Added value of this study</jats:title><jats:p>Comparison of antiviral drug efficacy using clinical endpoints is difficult-‘hard endpoints’ such as hospitalisation or death require prohibitively large sample sizes due to their rarity, and classification of more frequently encountered milder symptoms are imprecise. By contrast, this pharmacometric approach provides a quantitative measure of antiviral effects in patients with tractable sample sizes. This randomised study provides the first direct comparison of the in-vivo antiviral effects of ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir and ensitrelvir. Both drugs markedly accelerate SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance. An individual patient meta-analysis of all drugs included in the study confirms these drugs to have the most potent anti-SARS-CoV-2 antiviral effect.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Implications of all the available evidence</jats:title><jats:p>Both ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir and ensitrelvir have potent in-vivo antiviral activity in patients with early COVID-19. Ensitrelvir can be considered an efficacious and well-tolerated alternative to currently available antivirals. Candidate antivirals and antiviral combinations for respiratory viruses (including COVID-19 and Influenza) should be assessed and compared using this method.</jats:p></jats:sec></jats:sec>", "accepted": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 5, 21 ] ] }, "author": [ { "affiliation": [], "family": "Schilling", "given": "William HK", "sequence": "first" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Jittamala", "given": "Podjanee", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Wongnak", "given": "Phrutsamon", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Watson", "given": "James A", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Boyd", "given": "Simon", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Luvira", "given": "Viravarn", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Siripoon", "given": "Tanaya", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Ngamprasertchai", "given": "Thundon", "sequence": "additional" }, { "ORCID": 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"affiliation": [], "family": "Abdad", "given": "Mohammad Yazid", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Madmanee", "given": "Wanassanan", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Kouhathong", "given": "Jindarat", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Suwannasin", "given": "Kanokon", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Pagornrat", "given": "Watcharee", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Piteekan", "given": "Tianrat", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Hanboonkunupakarn", "given": "Borimas", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Poovorawan", "given": "Kittiyod", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Potaporn", "given": "Manus", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Srisubat", "given": "Attasit", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Loharjun", "given": "Bootsakorn", 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Please send us corrections, updates, or comments. c19early involves the extraction of 100,000+ datapoints from thousands of papers. Community updates help ensure high accuracy. Treatments and other interventions are complementary. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used based on risk/benefit analysis. No treatment or intervention is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. We do not provide medical advice. Before taking any medication, consult a qualified physician who can provide personalized advice and details of risks and benefits based on your medical history and situation. IMA and WCH provide treatment protocols.
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