Effectiveness of Azvudine and Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in Kidney Transplant Recipients With COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Liu et al., Infections in the immunosuppressed and immunocompromised host, doi:10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_MeetingAbstracts.A2917, Apr 2024
Progression -272% improvement lower risk ← → higher risk Paxlovid for COVID-19  Liu et al.  LATE TREATMENT Is late treatment with paxlovid beneficial for COVID-19? PSM retrospective 148 patients in China (December 2022 - January 2023) Higher progression with paxlovid (p=0.046) c19early.org Liu et al., Infections in the immunosu.., Apr 2024 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ RR
Retrospective 148 hospitalized kidney transplant patients with COVID-19 in China showing lower risk of disease progression with azvudine treatment compared, and higher risk with paxlovid treatment.
Resistance. Variants may be resistant to paxlovid1-8. Use may promote the emergence of variants that weaken host immunity and potentially contribute to long COVID9.
Confounding by contraindication. Hoertel et al. find that over 50% of patients that died had a contraindication for the use of Paxlovid10. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy.
Black box warning. The FDA notes that severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid11.
Kidney and liver injury. Studies show significantly increased risk of acute kidney injury12 and liver injury13.
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, China, is average with moderate efficacy for approved treatments14.
Study covers azvudine and paxlovid.
risk of progression, 272.0% higher, HR 3.72, p = 0.046, propensity score matching, Cox proportional hazards.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Liu et al., 30 Apr 2024, retrospective, China, peer-reviewed, 3 authors, study period 1 December, 2022 - 19 January, 2023. Contact: liuyi200402@163.com.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org November 2025 China United Kingdom Russia USA Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Pakistan Argentina Vietnam Peru Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Japan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Bosnia-Herzegovina Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore Iceland New Zealand Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago Hong Kong North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia CAR China favored low-cost treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was moderate.Low-cost treatments improve early treatment, andprovide complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org November 2025 China United Kingdom Russia USA Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Pakistan Argentina Vietnam Peru Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Japan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Togo Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore New Zealand Malawi Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia Syria China favored low-cost treatments.The average efficacy was moderate.Low-cost protocols improve early treatment,and add complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
Effectiveness of Azvudine and Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in Kidney Transplant Recipients With COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Y Liu, H Zhang, D Liu
Rationale: The effectiveness of azvudine and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in treating COVID-19 patients has been demonstrated. However, evidence regarding their real-world effectiveness in kidney transplant recipients remains limited.Methods: We conducted a single-centre retrospective cohort study, focusing on hospitalised kidney transplant patients with COVID-19 between December 1st, 2022 and anuary 19th, 2023 during the omicron BA.5.2 variant-dominant period. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 within 3 days before or after hospital admission and were diagnosed with both COVID-19 and having undergone kidney transplant. Exclusion criteria encompassed the administration of other antiviral treatments within 10 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, breastfeeding, pregnancy, or known allergies to nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or azvudine. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of all-cause mortality, disease progression to critical COVID-19, Intensive care unit admission or upgrade of respiratory support, as well as their separate events. Hazard ratios (HRs) was estimated using Cox regression models for each event outcome between the groups.Results: We identified 1761 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 during the study period. After exclusions and propensity score matching, a total of 148 kidney transplant patients were included, with 40 receiving azvudine, 73 receiving nirmatrelvirritonavir, and 35 not receiving antiviral treatment. Azvudine was associated with a lower risk of composite disease progression outcome than those with no antiviral treatment (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 0.51 to 6.53), whereas risk of composite disease progression outcome was similar in nirmatrelvirritonavir groups (HR, 3.72; 95% CI, 1.02 to 13.55). There was no evidence indicating a reduction in all-cause death, disease progression or incidence of the Intensive care unit admission. Conclusions: During the Omicron BA.5.2 variant wave, azvudine improved the prognosis of hospitalised kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19. However, the findings are constrained by the small sample size and a short follow-up period.
DOI record: { "DOI": "10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_meetingabstracts.a2917", "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_MeetingAbstracts.A2917", "alternative-id": [ "10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_MeetingAbstracts.A2917", "10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.A107" ], "author": [ { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China" } ], "family": "Liu", "given": "Y.", "sequence": "first" }, { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China" } ], "family": "Zhang", "given": "H.", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China" } ], "family": "Liu", "given": "D.", "sequence": "additional" } ], "container-title": "A107. INFECTIONS IN THE IMMUNOSUPPRESSED AND IMMUNOCOMPROMISED HOST", "content-domain": { "crossmark-restriction": false, "domain": [] }, "created": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 4, 30 ] ], "date-time": "2024-04-30T20:10:21Z", "timestamp": 1714507821000 }, "deposited": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 4, 30 ] ], "date-time": "2024-04-30T20:10:28Z", "timestamp": 1714507828000 }, "event": "American Thoracic Society 2024 International Conference, May 17-22, 2024 - San Diego, CA", "indexed": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 5, 1 ] ], "date-time": "2024-05-01T00:34:05Z", "timestamp": 1714523645357 }, "is-referenced-by-count": 0, "issued": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 4, 30 ] ] }, "member": "19", "original-title": [], "prefix": "10.1164", "published": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 4, 30 ] ] }, "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 4, 30 ] ] }, "published-print": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 5 ] ] }, "publisher": "American Thoracic Society", "reference-count": 0, "references-count": 0, "relation": {}, "resource": { "primary": { "URL": "https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_MeetingAbstracts.A2917" } }, "score": 1, "short-title": [], "source": "Crossref", "subject": [], "subtitle": [], "title": "Effectiveness of Azvudine and Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in Kidney Transplant Recipients With COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study", "type": "proceedings-article" }
Late treatment
is less effective
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