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Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir on post-COVID-19 outcomes among outpatients: a target trial emulation investigation

Wei et al., Emerging Microbes & Infections, doi:10.1080/22221751.2025.2469648
Feb 2025  
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Mortality, day 360 38% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality, day 180 40% Mortality, day 30 61% Hospitalization, day 360 15% Hospitalization, day 180 15% Hospitalization, day 30 11% Paxlovid for COVID-19  Wei et al.  EARLY TREATMENT Is early treatment with paxlovid beneficial for COVID-19? Retrospective 140,477 patients in China Lower mortality (p<0.0001) and hospitalization (p<0.0001) c19early.org Wei et al., Emerging Microbes & In.., Feb 2025 Favorspaxlovid Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
Retrospective target trial emulation of outpatients in Hong Kong showing reduced post-acute mortality and hospitalization with paxlovid, but no significant long-term benefit with molnupiravir. Figure 1 shows only 0.08% of patients were excluded for contraindications to paxlovid, which does not appear to be realistic for the population and suggests either a major limitation of the data or an error in the processing of contraindications, which will overestimate the efficacy of paxlovid.
Confounding by treatment propensity. This study analyzes a population where only a fraction of eligible patients received the treatment. Patients receiving treatment may be more likely to follow other recommendations, more likely to receive additional care, and more likely to use additional treatments that are not tracked in the data (e.g., nasal/oral hygiene1,2, vitamin D3, etc.) — either because the physician recommending paxlovid also recommended them, or because the patient seeking out paxlovid is more likely to be familiar with the efficacy of additional treatments and more likely to take the time to use them. Malden et al. confirm significant bias in the use of paxlovid, showing that treated patients are more likely to be from affluent neighborhoods, be more health-conscious, and have better access to care. Therefore, these kind of studies may overestimate the efficacy of treatments.
Resistance. Variants may be resistant to paxlovid5-8. Use may promote the emergence of variants that weaken host immunity and potentially contribute to long COVID9.
Confounding by contraindication. Hoertel et al. find that over 50% of patients that died had a contraindication for the use of Paxlovid10. Retrospective studies that do not exclude contraindicated patients may significantly overestimate efficacy.
Black box warning. The FDA notes that "severe, life-threatening, and/or fatal adverse reactions due to drug interactions have been reported in patients treated with paxlovid"11.
AKI. Kamo et al. show significantly increased risk of acute kidney injury.
Standard of Care (SOC): SOC for COVID-19 in the study country, China, is average with moderate average efficacy for approved treatments13.
Study covers molnupiravir and paxlovid.
risk of death, 38.0% lower, RR 0.62, p < 0.001, treatment 93,861, control 46,616, day 360.
risk of death, 40.0% lower, RR 0.60, p < 0.001, treatment 93,861, control 46,616, day 180.
risk of death, 61.0% lower, RR 0.39, p < 0.001, treatment 93,861, control 46,616, day 30.
risk of hospitalization, 15.0% lower, RR 0.85, p < 0.001, treatment 93,861, control 46,616, day 360.
risk of hospitalization, 15.0% lower, RR 0.85, p < 0.001, treatment 93,861, control 46,616, day 180.
risk of hospitalization, 11.0% lower, RR 0.89, p = 0.02, treatment 93,861, control 46,616, day 30.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Wei et al., 18 Feb 2025, retrospective, China, peer-reviewed, 19 authors. Contact: marc@cuhk.edu.hk.
This PaperPaxlovidAll
Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir on post-COVID-19 outcomes among outpatients: a target trial emulation investigation
PhD Yuchen Wei, PhD Christopher Boyer, MSc Katherine Min Jia, MSc Guozhang Lin, MPhil Huwen Wang, MSc Conglu Li, MBBS Chi Tim Hung, MSc Xiaoting Jiang, Carrie Ho Kwan Yam, Tsz Yu Chow, PhD Yawen Wang, PhD Shi Zhao, MSc Zihao Guo, MSc Kehang Li, PhD Aimin Yang, Chris Ka Pun Mok, David Sc Hui, PhD Ka Chun Chong, Eng Kiong Yeoh
Emerging Microbes & Infections, doi:10.1080/22221751.2025.2469648
Limited studies compared the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir against a control group on post-COVID-19 conditions. Our study examined the association of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir with post-acute mortality and hospitalizations among outpatients using real-world outpatient records of COVID-19 designated clinics in Hong Kong. This is an observational study using a target trial emulation framework, involving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no antiviral treatment (Trial 1) and molnupiravir versus no antiviral treatment (Trial 2). Outcomes included post-acute mortality, all-cause hospitalization, and hospitalization due to 13 selected sequelae. Relative effectiveness was assessed by comparing the cumulative incidence between two groups, reported as relative risk (RR), along with risk differences (RD) during day 0-30, 31-180, and 181-360. After screening, 140477 and 96030 patients were included in Trial 1 and 2, respectively. Compared with no treatment, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated patients exhibited a significantly lower risk of post-acute mortality (31-180 days: RR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.54-0.96; RD, 0.20%; 181-360 days: RR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.50-0.82; RD, 0.32%) and all-cause hospitalization (31-180 days: RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.88; RD, 1.11%; 181-360 days: RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89; RD, 1.18%). Patients receiving molnupiravir had a lower risk of 30-day mortality, but no significant beneficial effect was observed for the post-acute outcomes. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in reducing post-COVID-19 outcomes among outpatients. While we observed the short-term effectiveness of molnupiravir in reducing mortality, no protective effect on long-term post-COVID-19 outcomes was observed.
Declarations Ethics approval and consent to participate: This study followed the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) reporting guideline. Ethics approval was obtained from the Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong and New Territories East Cluster clinical research ethics committee, Hong Kong (Ref No. 2023.006). As this study was a retrospective analysis using secondary data without any personal information, the requirement for informed consent was waived. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: We declare that we have no conflicts of interest. Contributions: Study design and conceptualisation: YWei, CB, KMJ, GL, KCC. Data collection and pre-processing: YWei, HW, CHKY, TYC, ZG, EKY. Data analysis and interpretation: YWei, CB, KMJ, KCC. Writing -Original Draft: YWei, CB, KMJ, HW, GL, CTH, XJ, CL, SZ, CKPM, DSCH, KCC. Writing -Review and Editing: HW, CHKY, TYC, KL, AY, EKY. EKY and KCC have accessed and verified all the data. All authors critically reviewed the manuscript and gave final approval for publication. Table S4 . Illustration of censoring and weighting during the 5-days grace period. Person (i) Time Treatment Weight not being censored from the treatment arm within grace period Weight not being censored from the no treatment arm within grace period ) 0 p0 = probability of being censored from the treatment arm in Day 0, p1 = probability of being censored from the no treatment arm in day 1, etc...
References
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