Use of defibrotide in COVID-19 pneumonia: comparison of a phase II study and a matched real-world cohort control

Ruggeri et al., Haematologica, doi:10.3324/haematol.2024.285345, NCT04335201, May 2024
Mortality 22% improvement lower risk ← → higher risk Respiratory failure 29% Defibrotide  Ruggeri et al.  LATE TREATMENT Is late treatment with defibrotide beneficial for COVID-19? Retrospective 201 patients in Italy (December 2020 - December 2021) Lower mortality (p=0.25) and progression (p=0.14), not sig. c19early.org Ruggeri et al., Haematologica, May 2024 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ RR
Phase II trial of 48 hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia patients receiving non-invasive ventilation, compared against a retrospective matched cohort of 153 controls receiving standard of care, showing a trend towards benefit with defibrotide treatment.
These results almost certainly overestimate defibrotide's efficacy. The subsequent randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial1 found no clinical benefit and higher 60-day mortality (27% vs. 22%, without statistical significance).
Several confounding issues may explain the difference:
The defibrotide cohort was prospectively selected to be substantially healthier than the retrospective controls (younger: median 60.5 vs. 72.7 years; fewer cardiovascular comorbidities: 6.2% vs. 21.6%; better baseline oxygenation), because trial enrollment required surviving to consent, tolerating a 14-day regimen, and hemodynamic stability - all selecting for less severe illness.
The overall-survival curve (Figure 1A) appears to place the arms on misaligned clocks, with the defibrotide curve beginning around five days after the control curve, consistent with plotting the treated arm from treatment initiation rather than the eligibility-aligned day 1 and granting it a guaranteed early event-free window (immortal-time bias).
The arms came from different hospitals over overlapping but non-identical windows, with no reported enrollment-date distribution and no adjustment for calendar time - so the controls could be concentrated in a higher-mortality or higher-ICU-pressure time period, an effect the four-covariate model cannot capture.
An indicator of this confounding is visible in the analysis: the unadjusted advantages (OS HR 0.33, RFFS HR 0.43) collapsed to non-significance after adjustment (OS HR 0.78, p=0.248; RFFS HR 0.71, p=0.138), the model captured only modest residual confounding (RFFS C-index 0.67), and the lone surviving significant endpoint - post-recovery days - is shaped more by discharge practice than physiology.
This study is excluded in meta-analysis: significant unadjusted confounding possible.
risk of death, 22.0% lower, HR 0.78, p = 0.25, treatment 48, control 153, adjusted per study.
respiratory failure, 29.0% lower, HR 0.71, p = 0.14, treatment 48, control 153, adjusted per study.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Ruggeri et al., 23 May 2024, retrospective, Italy, peer-reviewed, 22 authors, study period 8 December, 2020 - 8 December, 2021, trial NCT04335201 (history). Contact: carmelo.carlostella@hunimed.eu.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org May 2026 Italy Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines Vietnam Japan Nepal China Uzbekistan Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Nigeria Taiwan Zambia Bolivia Fiji Bosnia-Herzegovina Jordan Georgia Switzerland Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore Iceland New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Israel Belarus North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia CAR Syria Italy favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org May 2026 Italy Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines Vietnam Japan Nepal China Uzbekistan Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Nigeria Taiwan Zambia Bolivia Fiji Jordan Georgia Switzerland Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore Iceland New Zealand Mongolia Czechia Israel Belarus North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia CAR Italy favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
Abstract: ## Use of defibrotide in COVID-19 pneumonia: comparison of a phase II study and a matched real-world cohort control Annalisa Ruggeri, 1* Francesco Corrado, 2,3* Antonio Voza, 2,4 Lee-Jen Wei, 5 Gloria Catalano, 1 Carmine Liberatore, 1 Rosamaria Nitti, 1 Carlo Fedeli, 4 Alessandro Bruno, 1 Eleonora Calabretta, 2,3 Fabio Giglio, 1 Fabio Sciutti, 6 Francesca Lunghi, 1 Giovanni Landoni, 7,8 Alessio Aghemo, 2,9 Massimo Iacobelli, 10 Patrizia Rovere Querini, 8,11 Paul G. Richardson, 12 Andrea Assanelli, 1 Jacopo Peccatori, 1 Fabio Ciceri 1,9# and Carmelo Carlo-Stella 2,3# 1 Hematology and Bone Marrow Transplantation Unit, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; 2 Department of Biomedical Sciences, Humanitas University, Pieve Emanuele, Milan, Italy; 3 Department of Oncology and Hematology, IRCCS Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan, Italy; 4 Emergency Department, IRCCS Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan, Italy; 5 Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; 6 Emergency Department, IRCCS San Matteo, Pavia, Italy; 7 Anesthesia and Intensive Care Department, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; 8 School of Medicine, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy; 9 Division of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, Department of Gastroenterology, IRCCS Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan, Italy; 10 Life Sciences, Techitra Srl, Milan, Italy; 11 Department of Immunology, Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy and 12 DanaFarber/Brigham and Women's Cancer Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA * AR and FCo contributed equally as first authors. # FCi and CC-S contributed equally as senior authors. Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to an unprecedented burden on healthcare systems around the world and a severe global socioeconomic crisis, with more than 750 million confirmed cases and at least 7 million deaths reported by December 31, 2023. The DEFI-VID19 study ( clinicaltrials gov. Identifier: NCT04335201 ), a phase II, single-arm, multicenter, open-label trial was designed in mid-2020 to assess the safety and efficacy of defibrotide in treating patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Defibrotide was administered at a dose of 25 mg/kg intravenously, divided into four daily doses over a planned 14-day period for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia receiving non-invasive ventilation. The primary endpoint was respiratory failure-free survival (RFFS). Overall survival (OS), the number of post-recovery days, and adverse events were the secondary endpoints. For comparison, a contemporaneous control cohort receiving standard of care only was retrospectively selected by applying the eligibility criteria of the DEFI-VID19 trial. To adjust for the imbalance between the two cohorts in terms of baseline variable distributions, an outcome regression analysis was conducted. In adjusted analysis, patients receiving defibrotide reported a trend towards higher RFFS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34-1.29; P =0.138) and OS (HR=0.78; 95% CI: 0.33-1.53; P =0.248]) and showed a significantly increased number of post-recovery days (difference in means =3.61; 95% CI: 0.97-6.26; P =0.0037). Despite concomitant thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, the safety profile of defibrotide proved to be favorable. Taken together, our..
DOI record: { "DOI": "10.3324/haematol.2024.285345", "ISSN": [ "1592-8721", "0390-6078" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.3324/haematol.2024.285345", "abstract": "<jats:p>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to an unprecedented burden on healthcare systems around the world and a severe global socioeconomic crisis, with more than 750 million confirmed cases and at least 7 million deaths reported by December 31, 2023. The DEFI-VID19 study (clinicaltrials gov. Identifier: NCT04335201), a phase II, single-arm, multicenter, open-label trial was designed in mid-2020 to assess the safety and efficacy of defibrotide in treating patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Defibrotide was administered at a dose of 25 mg/kg intravenously, divided into four daily doses over a planned 14-day period for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia receiving non-invasive ventilation. The primary endpoint was respiratory failure-free survival (RFFS). Overall survival (OS), the number of post-recovery days, and adverse events were the secondary endpoints. For comparison, a contemporaneous control cohort receiving standard of care only was retrospectively selected by applying the eligibility criteria of the DEFI-VID19 trial. To adjust for the imbalance between the two cohorts in terms of baseline variable distributions, an outcome regression analysis was conducted. In adjusted analysis, patients receiving defibrotide reported a trend towards higher RFFS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34-1.29; P=0.138) and OS (HR=0.78; 95% CI: 0.33-1.53; P=0.248]) and showed a significantly increased number of post-recovery days (difference in means =3.61; 95% CI: 0.97-6.26; P=0.0037). Despite concomitant thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, the safety profile of defibrotide proved to be favorable. Taken together, our findings suggest that defibrotide may represent a valuable addition to the COVID-19 therapeutic options.</jats:p>", "author": [ { "affiliation": [], "family": "Ruggeri", "given": "Annalisa", "role": [ { "role": "author", "vocabulary": "crossref" } ], "sequence": "first" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Corrado", "given": "Francesco", "role": [ { "role": "author", "vocabulary": "crossref" } ], "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Voza", "given": "Antonio", "role": [ { "role": "author", "vocabulary": "crossref" } ], "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Wei", "given": "Lee-Jen", "role": [ { "role": "author", "vocabulary": "crossref" } ], "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Catalano", "given": "Gloria", "role": [ { "role": "author", "vocabulary": "crossref" } ], "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Liberatore", "given": "Carmine", "role": [ { "role": "author", "vocabulary": 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Late treatment
is less effective
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