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Favipiravir for COVID-19 in adults in the community in PRINCIPLE, an open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial of short- and longer-term outcomes

Hobbs et al., Journal of Infection, doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106248, PRINCIPLE, ISRCTN86534580
Aug 2024  
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Mortality 86% Improvement Relative Risk ICU admission -191% Death/hospitalization 1% Not fully recovered, day 365 17% Not fully recovered, day 180 12% Not fully recovered, day 90 17% Ongoing persistent symp.. 29% Time to first reported re.. 19% primary Early sustained recovery 34% Sustained recovery 25% Alleviation of all symptoms 12% Sustained alleviation of al.. 21% Initial reduction of severity 23% Favipiravir  PRINCIPLE  LATE TREATMENT  RCT Is late treatment with favipiravir beneficial for COVID-19? RCT 3,622 patients in the United Kingdom (April 2021 - July 2022) Improved recovery with favipiravir (p=0.0032) c19early.org Hobbs et al., J. Infection, August 2024 Favorsfavipiravir Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
RCT 3,622 (concurrent and eligible) COVID-19 outpatients in the UK showing significantly faster recovery with favipiravir, and significantly greater full recovery at 3, 6, and 12 months.
Authors note: "From 16 Dec 2021, a minority of extremely clinically vulnerable patients could also access antiviral treatment or a monoclonal antibody infusion". However, there is no information on treatments provided or procedures for determining eligibility. This change invalidates hospitalization/death data after 16 Dec 2021. Hospitalization/death events occured in a small minority of patients and are expected to be strongly biased towards the extremely clinically vulnerable patients. Patients randomized to usual care are more likely to obtain alternative treatment. During the trial extension period sotrovimab was the most common treatment, with paxlovid and molnupiravir also being used1. Sotrovimab showed very high efficacy during this period2,3. It is normal to provide details of other treatments used in cases like this, the lack of disclosure suggests that the data confirms alternative treatment use significantly biased the results.
Table 1 shows a median of 4 days delay from onset of symptoms, while Table S1 shows a mean of 5.1/5.0 days for the long-term followup patients (97% of patients) indicating a distribution skewed towards very late treatment.
Potential risks of favipiravir include the creation of dangerous variants, and mutagenicity, carcinogenicity, teratogenicity, and embryotoxicity4-8.
risk of death, 86.3% lower, RR 0.14, p = 0.11, treatment 0 of 1,829 (0.0%), control 3 of 1,668 (0.2%), NNT 556, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm), day 28.
risk of ICU admission, 191.1% higher, RR 2.91, p = 1.00, treatment 1 of 1,825 (0.1%), control 0 of 1,663 (0.0%), continuity correction due to zero event (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm).
risk of death/hospitalization, 1.0% lower, HR 0.99, p = 0.51, treatment 1,829, control 3,256, adjusted per study.
not fully recovered, 17.4% lower, RR 0.83, p = 0.003, treatment 350 of 1,582 (22.1%), control 378 of 1,412 (26.8%), NNT 22, day 365, Table 3.
not fully recovered, 12.2% lower, RR 0.88, p = 0.04, treatment 378 of 1,503 (25.1%), control 384 of 1,340 (28.7%), NNT 29, day 180, Table 3.
not fully recovered, 17.2% lower, RR 0.83, p < 0.001, treatment 418 of 1,507 (27.7%), control 459 of 1,370 (33.5%), NNT 17, day 90, Table 3.
ongoing persistent symptoms at 3, 6, 12 months, 29.0% lower, RR 0.71, p = 0.02, treatment 1,829, control 1,668, Table 3.
time to first reported recovery, 18.7% lower, HR 0.81, p < 0.001, treatment 1,829, control 3,256, adjusted per study, inverted to make HR<1 favor treatment, primary outcome.
early sustained recovery, 34.2% lower, RR 0.66, p < 0.001, treatment 1,828, control 1,666, adjusted per study, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment.
sustained recovery, 24.8% lower, RR 0.75, p < 0.001, treatment 1,829, control 1,668, adjusted per study, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment.
alleviation of all symptoms, 12.3% lower, RR 0.88, p < 0.001, treatment 1,562, control 1,407, adjusted per study, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment.
sustained alleviation of all symptoms, 20.6% lower, RR 0.79, p < 0.001, treatment 1,562, control 1,407, adjusted per study, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment.
initial reduction of severity, 23.1% lower, RR 0.77, p < 0.001, treatment 1,828, control 1,667, adjusted per study, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Hobbs et al., 31 Aug 2024, Randomized Controlled Trial, United Kingdom, peer-reviewed, median age 54.1, 26 authors, study period 8 April, 2021 - 1 July, 2022, average treatment delay 5.1 days, trial ISRCTN86534580 (PRINCIPLE). Contact: principle@phc.ox.ac.uk.
This PaperFavipiravirAll
Favipiravir for COVID-19 in adults in the community in PRINCIPLE, an open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial of short- and longer-term outcomes
Fd Richard Hobbs, Oghenekome A Gbinigie, Milensu Shanyinde, Ly-Mee Yu, Victoria Harris, Jienchi Dorward, Gail Hayward, Benjamin R Saville, Nicholas S Berry, Philip H Evans, Nicholas Pb Thomas, Mahendra G Patel, Duncan Richards, Oliver Van Hecke, Michelle A Detry, Christina T Saunders, Mark Fitzgerald, Jared Robinson, Charlotte Latimer-Bell, Julie Allen, Emma Ogburn, Jenna Grabey, Simon De Lusignan, Monique Andersson, Paul Little, Christopher C Butler
Journal of Infection, doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106248
Background Evidence for the effect of favipiravir treatment of acute COVID-19 on recovery, hospital admissions and longer-term outcomes in community settings is limited. Methods In this multicentre. open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomised controlled trial participants aged ≥18 years in the community with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 and symptoms lasting ≤14 days were randomised to: usual care; usual care plus favipiravir tablets (loading dose of 3600 mg in divided doses on day one, then 800 mg twice a day for four days); or, usual care plus other interventions. Co-primary endpoints were time to first selfreported recovery and hospitalisation/death related to COVID-19, within 28 days, analysed using Bayesian models. Recovery at six months was the primary longer-term outcome. Trial registration: ISRCTN86534580.
writing group critically revised the manuscript. The members of the PRINCIPLE Collaborative Group and their roles in the conduct of the trial are listed in the appendix. Conflict of Interest statement Drs. Saville, Berry, Detry, Fitzgerald and Saunders report grants from The University of Oxford, for the Sponsor's grant from the UK NIHR, for statistical design and analyses for the J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Declaration of interests The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered
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Late treatment
is less effective
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