Efficacy of Ivermectin Treatment on Disease Progression Among Adults With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 and Comorbidities: The I-TECH Randomized Clinical Trial

Lim et al., JAMA, doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.0189 (data 11/3/21), I-TECH, NCT04920942, Nov 2021
Late treatmentRCT · NCT04920942 · 490 patients · Malaysia · May – Oct 2021
Ivermectin for COVID-19
RCT 490 late stage (>65% lung change chest radiography at baseline) hospitalized patients in Malaysia, showing no significant differences. Mortality was 1.2% for ivermectin vs. 4% for control. If the same event rates continued, the trial would need to add ~13% more patients to reach statistical significance. By continuing the trial for ~2 weeks, there is a reasonable chance of the result being a statistically significant ~69% reduction in mortality, which would equate to >10 million lives saved if adopted at the start of the pandemic.
The mortality reduction is consistent with the results from all trials. While not reaching the significance threshold with the specified test, Prof. Fenton reports that Bayesian analysis shows significantly lower mortality (97% probability that ivermectin reduces mortality1). Authors describe the mortality results as "similar" and they are not mentioned in the visual abstract or the conclusion, suggesting substantial investigator bias with a preference for a null result.
The mortality rate among all patients is too low to detect a 69% benefit with statistical significance, however the primary outcome gives us a subset of patients with severe cases that had progressed to SpO2 <95% shortly after randomization (and mostly before treatment ended)2,3. This result is statistically significant.
This trial has multiple serious issues:
Responses: authors have not responded to any of these issues.
CRITICALUnusual primary outcome of limited use. The primary outcome is an unusual outcome based on oxygen required to maintain SpO2 ≥95%. Outside of the group running this trial we have not seen any other COVID-19 trial use this outcome. Notably, baseline SpO2 is not provided. This outcome is of limited use in evaluating treatment because it occurred before the end of treatment for ~80% of patients. This primary endpoint is dominated by early desaturation in patients enrolled very late, with most crossing the threshold within 72 hours. This is a weak test of an antiviral hypothesis regardless of the drug, and makes the endpoint sensitive to enrollment SpO2 and monitoring practices. The trial was open label and the primary outcome is subject to investigator bias - clinicians could easily bias the results by altering how they monitor SpO2, how precisely they enforced the threshold, or other aspects of SOC such as propensity to use prone positioning. Note that the protocol allows enrollment below 95% if that is the patient's expected baseline from chronic lung disease (section 3.5, item 2), and chronic pulmonary disease was present in 17 vs. 21 patients. The interval between the eligibility SpO2 and the first dose is also not stated - a patient could qualify in the morning and cross the threshold before treatment started.
CRITICALPrimary outcome not prespecified. The primary outcome was changed during the trial. The first registry entry (mid-trial, June 8, 2021) shows clinical outcomes of mortality and clinical response at 28 days4 (listed under secondary, however the primary outcome section only contains baseline characteristics and adverse events). On June 18, 2021 it was changed to 'Number of Patients who Progressed to Severe Disease' and 'Time Required for Patients on Treatment Arm to Progressed to Severe Disease'5, which are still the primary outcomes in the last update on May 30, 20236. There is no mention of oxygen requirements or an oxygen threshold.
CRITICALTrend positive for WHO progression. A more typical progression outcome, such as progression to WHO severe cases defined as death/IMV/NIV/high flow shows a positive trend7.
CRITICALUnblinded primary endpoint lacks supporting oxygenation data. Clinicians knew treatment allocation and determined oxygen initiation. Baseline SpO2 distributions, qualifying desaturation measurements, and blinded endpoint adjudication are not reported. Notably, the ivermectin excess occurred among patients whose highest support was nasal prongs or a simple face mask (38 vs. 22; 15.8% vs. 8.8%), while all higher-support categories combined favored ivermectin (14 vs. 21). This suggests potential differential oxygen-initiation, and the same group's open-label favipiravir trial showed the same distribution. More details including baseline oxygen status, oxygen initiation practices, and a sensitivity analysis using higher-support endpoints should be reported.
CRITICALPlanned adjusted analysis not reported. The registry specifies logistic regression ('a logistic regression will also be performed... potentially adjusting for clinically relevant and statistically significant variables'), and the protocol describes multivariable analysis ('multivariate analysis is performed for variables with P < 0.1'). No adjusted results are reported.
CRITICALVentilation exceeds ICU admissions. The control arm reports 10 mechanically ventilated patients but only eight ICU admissions. This warrants explanation.
CRITICALLength-of-stay confidence interval not reproducible. The reported mean-difference CI of -0.4 to 1.3 days does not reproduce under a standard independent-samples t calculation using the reported SDs and group sizes. The ITT version (eTable 2) reports -0.4 to 1.1 with identical means and SDs but 6 more patients, so the two intervals also disagree with each other.
CRITICALPrimary time-to-progression outcome changed; analyzed conditionally. The registry and protocol list time to progression as primary, but the paper reports it as secondary without explaining the change. Analysis includes only participants who progressed. Conditioning on progression does not evaluate whether treatment delayed or prevented progression across all randomized participants.
CRITICALMultiple incorrect values. Several percentages, difference signs, and confidence intervals conflict with reported counts or displayed values. Baseline diarrhea difference should be +1.98 percentage points, not -1.98; thyroid disease should be -0.33, not +0.33; female subgroup progression is 26/130 = 20.0%, not 20.3%; abstract ICU admission is 6/241 = 2.5%, not 2.4%; immunosuppression CI upper limit of 3.84 conflicts with ~0.38 under the method used in comparable rows; the positive creatinine median difference in eTable 1 conflict with the displayed medians; the gout CI does not reproduce using the apparent Wald method. The April 2022 correction corrected a different missing minus sign; these remaining errors should be corrected or explained.
SERIOUSInterim analyses conflict with supplied protocol. The protocol specifies one efficacy interim analysis at 50% recruitment, whereas the paper reports two analyses at 150 and 300 participants.
SERIOUSConcomitant treatment timing and indications unclear. Corticosteroid totals exceed severe-progression counts in both arms. Timing, indications, doses, and duration are not reported.
SERIOUSUnadjusted baseline imbalances; described as 'well balanced'. Cardiac disease, dyslipidemia, prior antibiotics were all significantly higher with ivermectin. No adjustments were performed.
SERIOUSNull-result framing understates uncertainty. Mortality is described as similar despite 3 versus 10 deaths, RR 0.31 [0.09-1.11]. Statements about ineffectiveness exceed what the trial establishes. The trial's best estimate for mortality, which is close to the arbitrary significance threshold used and is significant with Bayesian analysis1, corresponds to >10 million fewer deaths if adopted early in the pandemic.
SERIOUSRandomization different in protocol and paper. Protocol v2.0 shows 'stratified randomized treatments' that were 'coordinated by an independent third party.' The paper reports 'not stratified by site' and 'investigator-blinded randomization list uploaded to REDCap', 'using random permuted block sizes 2 to 6'. Block size 2 in an open-label, unstratified, 21-site trial increases predictability.
SERIOUSNeither analysis includes all randomized patients. The primary analysis excludes nine ivermectin patients and one control; the sensitivity analysis still excludes three ivermectin patients and one control.
SERIOUSSite balance and randomization details need clarification. No details of enrollment or outcome by site are provided, preventing assessment of site imbalance, recruitment patterns, or differences in oxygen practice.
SERIOUSOnly a mid-trial protocol (v2.0) is available. Protocol v2.0 is dated Sept 11, 2021, after ~300 of 500 patients and after both interim analyses. Authors should provide protocol v1.0 as approved by MREC (NMRR-21-155-58433) with the approval date.
MAJORDay-5 outcomes exclude deaths and withdrawals. Day-5 symptom and laboratory comparisons exclude three ivermectin withdrawals and two control deaths which limits interpretation as overall treatment effects.
This is the 31st of 54 COVID-19 RCTs for ivermectin, which collectively show efficacy with p=0.000000027.
This is the 65th of 106 COVID-19 controlled studies for ivermectin, which collectively show efficacy with p<0.0000000001.
risk of death, 69.0% lower, RR 0.31, p = 0.09, treatment 3 of 241 (1.2%), control 10 of 249 (4.0%), NNT 36, described as similar by authors.
risk of death, 69.8% lower, RR 0.30, p = 0.09, treatment 3 of 247 (1.2%), control 10 of 249 (4.0%), NNT 36, ITT.
risk of death, 75.2% lower, RR 0.25, p = 0.02, treatment 3 of 52 (5.8%), control 10 of 43 (23.3%), NNT 5.7, among patients progressing to severe cases (mostly before treatment ended).
risk of mechanical ventilation, 59.0% lower, RR 0.41, p = 0.17, treatment 4 of 241 (1.7%), control 10 of 249 (4.0%), NNT 42.
risk of mechanical ventilation, 59.7% lower, RR 0.40, p = 0.17, treatment 4 of 247 (1.6%), control 10 of 249 (4.0%), NNT 42, ITT.
risk of ICU admission, 22.0% lower, RR 0.78, p = 0.79, treatment 6 of 241 (2.5%), control 8 of 249 (3.2%), NNT 138.
risk of ICU admission, 24.4% lower, RR 0.76, p = 0.79, treatment 6 of 247 (2.4%), control 8 of 249 (3.2%), NNT 128, ITT.
risk of progression, 31.1% lower, RR 0.69, p = 0.29, treatment 14 of 241 (5.8%), control 21 of 249 (8.4%), NNT 38, death/IMV/NIV/high flow (WHO severe cases).
risk of progression, 25.0% higher, RR 1.25, p = 0.25, treatment 52 of 241 (21.6%), control 43 of 249 (17.3%), post-hoc primary outcome, post-hoc primary specific to this group.
hospitalization time, 5.5% higher, relative time 1.05, p = 0.38, treatment 241, control 249.
risk of no recovery, 2.5% higher, RR 1.02, p = 0.86, treatment 116 of 241 (48.1%), control 116 of 247 (47.0%), day 5.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Lim et al., 3 Nov 2021, Randomized Controlled Trial, Malaysia, peer-reviewed, 26 authors, study period 31 May, 2021 - 9 October, 2021, average treatment delay 5.1 days, dosage 400μg/kg days 1-5, trial NCT04920942 (history) (I-TECH). Contact: stevenlimcl@gmail.com.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org October 2026 Malaysia Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines USA Brazil France Italy Canada Pakistan Spain Vietnam Japan Nepal Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Nigeria Taiwan Fiji Zambia Bosnia-Herzegovina Dominican Republic Bolivia Côte d'Ivoire Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Iceland New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel Haiti North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia Malaysia favored low-cost treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was moderate.Low-cost treatments improve early treatment, andprovide complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org October 2026 Malaysia Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines USA Brazil France Italy Canada Pakistan Spain Vietnam Japan Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Taiwan Fiji Zambia Dominican Rep. Bolivia Côte d'Ivoire Bulgaria Greece Slovakia New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia Malaysia favored low-cost treatments.The average efficacy was moderate.Low-cost protocols improve early treatment,and add complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
Efficacy of Ivermectin Treatment on Disease Progression Among Adults With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 and Comorbidities
Steven Chee Loon Lim, Chee Peng Hor, Kim Heng Tay, Anilawati Mat Jelani, MMed Wen Hao Tan, Hong Bee Ker, Ting Soo Chow, Masliza Zaid, Wee Kooi Cheah, Han Hua Lim, Khairil Erwan Khalid, Joo Thye Cheng, Hazfadzila Mohd Unit, Noralfazita An, Azraai Bahari Nasruddin, Lee Lee Low, Song Weng Ryan Khoo, Jia Hui Loh, Nor Zaila Zaidan, Suhaila Ab Wahab, Li Herng Song, Hui Moon Koh, Teck Long King, Nai Ming Lai, Suresh Kumar Chidambaram, Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy, Wen Yea Hwong, Ee Vien Low, Mohan Dass Pathmanathan, Muhammad Luqman Hamzah, Yew Chung Chan, James Yau Hon Voo, Chun Fei Yap, Yon Quan Chan, Lee Kuen Vun, Kent Kian Keong Kong, Yi Fang Lim, Yee Jie Teoh, Ammar Rashidi Abdullah, Anitha Ramadas, Chee Loon Leong, Noor Hidayu Wahab, Nadiah Ismail, Ismaliza Ismail, Tung Meng Lee, Pei Jie Khoo, Sook Hui Phua, Prethivan Pillai Gopalakrishnan, Sangeetha Jaya Selan, Iswaran Ampalakan, Jen Fai Khuan, Wan Nur Farra’ain Abdul Rashid, Siti Sha’ada Zakaria, Kalaiarasan Gemini, Haslina Burahan, Thaanveer Singh Santokh Singh, Noorfarzlina Jaafar, Nor Atikah Mohd Shukri, Syaza Izhar Hisham, Sheng Hao Teow, Chit Yeh Lim, Shageetha Rajantran, Siti Izzatul Annis Kamaruddin, Izarin Izmir Izhar, Nur Syuhada Mohd Mustapha, Zulkefli Mohamad, Seri Rabiatul Nur Abu Salim, Delarina Frimawati Othman Andu, Nurnadiah Kamarudin, Karamjit Kaur Sarban Singh, Eek Poei Tay, Siti Hir Huraizah Md Tahir, Shalini Vijayasingham, Yik Zhi Kum, Peter Andrew Natarajan, Yih Harng Soh, Syed Omar Farouk Syed Alwi, Hemaarubeni Murugan, Chuan Huan Chuah, Shin Wuei Tan, Kar Nim Leong, Peng Shyan Wong, Wendy Tyng Tyng Chen, Ru Shing Ng, Yen Li Lim, Farah Nadiah Bidin, Mann Leon Chin, Han Lin Guan, Mohd Hafiz Mohamad Rasli, Rafidah Abdullah, Mohd Akmal Jamaludin, Nabilah Mohd Shohaime, Syafiqah Mohd Mansor, Ruhaizad Rasliza, Lisa Mohamed Nor, Kah Mean Thong, Balasurindiran Muniandy, Pamela Varn Teing Saw, Kah Shuen Thong, Kee Cheong Wong, V Rubini Nair Muthi, Qhairyl Iylman Ahmad Shanizza, Lavanya Jeevaraj, Ee Lin Chew, Poh Ching Huang, Jasmine Retnasamy, Philip Rajan Devesahayam, Mei San Lim, Thilagavathi Thanusia Viswanathan, Muhammad Syafiq Mahamad Azazis, Gregory Domnic, Muhammad Fursanallah Tengku, Jeanette Qiu Yi Wong, Xin Hui Choo, Ambika Nair Prabhaharan, Nur Shakirah Zaharudin, Asma Usa’diyah Abu Bakar Sayuti, Nabilah Abdul Wahid, Nurul Hasanah Saat, Nurul Huda Othman, Aisyah Ahmad Zubaidi, Nurul Miza Shasheiha Abdul Mutalib, Viknesh Dev Lekh Raj Sharma, Daleni Gunaraj, Muhammad Na'imuddin'alim Hanafi, Nurul Atiqah Embok Ungah, Muhammad Ariffadilah Mohd Zahari, Chun Lian Chaw, Jennifer Arokisamy, Puteri Amira Mohd Hassan, Ainun Jariah Ayub, Azrin Nurfarahin Zainal Abidin, Khai Sin Choong, Lee Rhui Teoh, Huan Yean Kang, Kesavathy Krishnan, Peacchaima Purusothman, Mohamad Izwan Zainol, Mei Mei Tew, Mohd Fyzal Bahrudin, Kah Chuan Lim, Sharmila Mohd Nadzir, Lavanya Narayanan, Amira Naziffa Shamsuddin, Kok Tong Tan, Shaharudeen Kamaludeen, Nur Munirah Ibrahim, Pearly Kim Aik Sim, Irdina Aminuddi, Raja Nurulain Raja Nahar Putra, Lin Ye Yah, Boon Seng Liew, Tharmini Ravi, Syarifah Nurul Ain Syed Badaruddin, Nur Suriana Mah Hassan, Zulaika Roslan, Reshaini Nadarajan, Jian-Gang Ang, Minalosani Arumugam, Kin Wei Chua, Calvin Gim Seong Ooi, Siew Huang Lee, Way Ti Ooi, Xing Yi Tang, Kunaraj Perumalu, Muhammad Hazazi Razali, Mohamad Shamirul Afiq Murat, Nor Syahirah Hamdan, Muhammad Syafiq Hamidi, Amalina Anuar, Wei Chern Ang, Chee Kong Wong, Irma Liyana Mushaddik, Shafarul Halimi Mohamed, Raja Ahmad Reza Raja Lope Ahmad, Wan Mohd Khairul Wan Zainudin, Ahmad Fikhri Mohd Zin, Sze Kye Teoh, Mohd Yusran Yusoff, Siti Norizan Abdul Rani, Mazilah Ab Rahman, Maizatul Akmal Mohd Noor, Tuan Norhafiza Tuan Mat, Mohd Khairi Othman, Mohammad Sayed Sahul Hamid Gani, Ching Zin Ngua, Andrew Kean Wei Chang, Zhun Han Wong, Andy Tze Yang Ko, Su Fui Thung, Xun Ting Tiong, Hock Hin Chua, Kiam Seong Goh, Shanthini Muthusamy, Wai Yang Loo, Thamarai Supramaniam, Rakesh Lingam, Logadharshini Chandra Kumar, Siew Theng Chun, Dariel R Selvarajah, Darshinnee Mohan Raja, One Ling Low, Prathiv Supparmaniam, Husna Ad Suhadak, Boon Cong Beh, Yi Lin Lee, Cheng Lee Ooi, Khairul Nisa' Ishak, Rozila Harun, Soon Leng Lee, Kok Soon Lee, Ji Ken Ow, Neerusha Kaisbain, Caryn Jia Wern Leong, Yun Lee Chee, Keng Long Teh, Kam Veng Chan, Kee Tat Lee, E Jinq Wong, Ibtisam Ismail, Mohd Azri Mohd Suan, Ahmad Lutfi Mohamed Yusoff, Tuan Muhd Fairuz Tuan Ismail @tuan Manah, Khairul Azmi Ibrahim, Hazfadzila Mohd Unit, Norsima Nazifah Sidek, Noraini Seman
JAMA Internal Medicine, doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.0189
IMPORTANCE Ivermectin, an inexpensive and widely available antiparasitic drug, is prescribed to treat COVID-19. Evidence-based data to recommend either for or against the use of ivermectin are needed. OBJECTIVE To determine the efficacy of ivermectin in preventing progression to severe disease among high-risk patients with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Ivermectin Treatment Efficacy in COVID-19 High-Risk Patients (I-TECH) study was an open-label randomized clinical trial conducted at 20 public hospitals and a COVID-19 quarantine center in Malaysia between May 31 and October 25, 2021. Within the first week of patients' symptom onset, the study enrolled patients 50 years and older with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, comorbidities, and mild to moderate disease. INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive either oral ivermectin, 0.4 mg/kg body weight daily for 5 days, plus standard of care (n = 241) or standard of care alone (n = 249). The standard of care consisted of symptomatic therapy and monitoring for signs of early deterioration based on clinical findings, laboratory test results, and chest imaging. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who progressed to severe disease, defined as the hypoxic stage requiring supplemental oxygen to maintain pulse oximetry oxygen saturation of 95% or higher. Secondary outcomes of the trial included the rates of mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit admission, 28-day in-hospital mortality, and adverse events. RESULTS Among 490 patients included in the primary analysis (mean [SD] age, 62.5 [8.7] years; 267 women [54.5%]), 52 of 241 patients (21.6%) in the ivermectin group and 43 of 249 patients (17.3%) in the control group progressed to severe disease (relative risk [RR], 1.25; 95% CI, 0.87-1.80; P = .25). For all prespecified secondary outcomes, there were no significant differences between groups. Mechanical ventilation occurred in 4 (1.7%) vs 10 (4.0%) (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.13-1.30; P = .17), intensive care unit admission in 6 (2.4%) vs 8 (3.2%) (RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.27-2.20; P = .79), and 28-day in-hospital death in 3 (1.2%) vs 10 (4.0%) (RR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.09-1.11; P = .09). The most common adverse event reported was diarrhea (14 [5.8%] in the ivermectin group and 4 [1.6%] in the control group). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this randomized clinical trial of high-risk patients with mild to moderate COVID-19, ivermectin treatment during early illness did not prevent progression to severe disease. The study findings do not support the use of ivermectin for patients with COVID-19.
Conflict of Interest Additional Contributions: The authors thank all the investigators at the 21 study sites and the Institute for Clinical Research, Ministry of Health Malaysia, for their immense contribution and support. In addition, we are grateful for the participation of the patients enrolled in this study. We also thank the members of the independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board, namely Petrick Periyasamy, MMed, National University Medical Centre, Malaysia; Lai Hui Pang, BPharm, Institute for Clinical Research, Malaysia; Mohamad Adam Bujang, PhD, Institute for Clinical Research, Malaysia; Wei Hong Lai, PhD, Institute for Clinical Research, Malaysia; and Nurakmal Baharum, BSc, Institute for Clinical Research, Malaysia. They did not receive compensation for their contribution to this study. We also thank Noor Hisham Abdullah, M Surg, Director-General of Health Malaysia, for his permission to publish this study.
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DOI record: { "DOI": "10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.0189", "ISSN": [ "2168-6106" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.0189", "author": [ { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Medicine, Raja Permaisuri Bainun Hospital, Perak, Malaysia" } ], "family": "Lim", "given": "Steven Chee Loon", "sequence": "first" }, { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Medicine, Kepala Batas Hospital, Penang, Malaysia" }, { "name": "Clinical Research Centre, Seberang Jaya Hospital, Penang, Malaysia" } ], "family": "Hor", "given": "Chee Peng", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Medicine, Sungai Buloh Hospital, Selangor, Malaysia" } ], "family": "Tay", "given": "Kim Heng", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Medicine, Tumpat Hospital, Kelantan, Malaysia" } ], "family": "Mat Jelani", "given": "Anilawati", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [ { "name": "Department of Medicine, Taiping Hospital, Perak, 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Late treatment
is less effective
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