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Tocilizumab among patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit: a multicentre observational study

Biran et al., The Lancet Rheumatology, doi:10.1016/S2665-9913(20)30277-0, NCT04347993, Oct 2020
https://c19early.org/biran.html
Mortality 29% Improvement Relative Risk Tocilizumab for COVID-19  Biran et al.  LATE TREATMENT Is late treatment with tocilizumab beneficial for COVID-19? PSM retrospective 621 patients in the USA (March - April 2020) Lower mortality with tocilizumab (p=0.0038) c19early.org Biran et al., The Lancet Rheumatology, Oct 2020 Favorstocilizumab Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
Retrospective 764 COVID-19 patients requiring ICU support showing lower mortality with tocilizumab. There was significantly higher use of HCQ+AZ in the treatment group, which was not adjusted for in the propensity score matching or Cox regression.
5% of tocilizumab patients did not receive HCQ compared to 17% of untreated patients (15% after PSM), suggesting substantial differences between the groups in treatment propensity (which may include other unreported treatments such as vitamin D).
Authors state that "An increase in use of hydroxychloroquine was noted in patients who received tocilizumab compared with those who did not receive tocilizumab, which we do not believe had a relevant effect on our findings because most observational studies have not reported a benefit for hydroxychloroquine among hospitalised patients".
However authors would know the actual effect of HCQ and AZ in their dataset. Lack of reporting and lack of adjustment suggests that HCQ+AZ may have been beneficial in this case (due to politics authors would not be allowed to report this).
HCQ/AZ may lack benefit or be harmful with excessive dosage and very late treatment. Tocilizumab treatment was delayed 3 days post admission - HCQ treatment likely started earlier based on local protocol, without RCT delays. Typical HCQ dose in the region was reasonable. The RECOVERY trial delivered roughly four times the five-day exposure of the Hackensack area hospital protocol and more than double even a ten-day course. Based on expected dose and treatment time, it is likely that HCQ/AZ use here was beneficial.
Confounding by time is also possible - HCQ use likely dropped during the end of the study period, and the correlation with tocilizumab treatment suggests potential changes in tocilizumab treatment propensity over time, which adds confounding due to other significant SOC changes during this early pandemic period.
Other potential significant confounders were not included in adjustments without explanation - for example after matching the tocilizumab treatment group had 2x the number of nursing home residents with higher baseline risk.
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, the USA, is very poor with very low average efficacy for approved treatments1. Only expensive, high-profit treatments were approved for early treatment. Low-cost treatments were excluded, reducing the probability of early treatment due to access and cost barriers, and eliminating complementary and synergistic benefits seen with many low-cost treatments.
This study is excluded in the after exclusion results of meta analysis: significant unadjusted confounding possible.
risk of death, 29.0% lower, HR 0.71, p = 0.004, treatment 205, control 416, propensity score matching, Kaplan–Meier.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Biran et al., 31 Oct 2020, retrospective, USA, peer-reviewed, 29 authors, study period 1 March, 2020 - 22 April, 2020, trial NCT04347993 (history).
Tocilizumab among patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit: a multicentre observational study
Noa Biran, MD Andrew Ip, PhD Jaeil Ahn, MD Ronaldo C Go, Shuqi Wang, Shivam Mathura, Brittany A Sinclaire, Urszula Bednarz, BS Michael Marafelias, Eric Hansen, David S Siegel, MD Andre H Goy, MD Andrew L Pecora, Ihor S Sawczuk, MD Lauren S Koniaris, Micky Simwenyi, MD, L K Tank MD Daniel W Varga, Lisa K Tank, Aaron A Stein, Valerie Allusson, George S Lin, William F Oser, Roman A Tuma, Joseph Reichman, Louis Brusco Jr, MD Kim L Carpenter, Eric J Costanzo, Vincent Vivona, Stuart L Goldberg
The Lancet Rheumatology, doi:10.1016/s2665-9913(20)30277-0
Background Tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the interleukin-6 receptor, has been proposed to mitigate the cytokine storm syndrome associated with severe COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the association between tocilizumab exposure and hospital-related mortality among patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) support for COVID-19. Methods We did a retrospective observational cohort study at 13 hospitals within the Hackensack Meridian Health network (NJ, USA). We included patients (aged ≥18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who needed support in the ICU. We obtained data from a prospective observational database and compared outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab with those who did not. We applied a multivariable Cox model with propensity score matching to reduce confounding effects. The primary endpoint was hospital-related mortality. The prospective observational database is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04347993. Findings Between March 1 and April 22, 2020, 764 patients with COVID-19 required support in the ICU, of whom 210 (27%) received tocilizumab. Factors associated with receiving tocilizumab were patients' age, gender, renal function, and treatment location. 630 patients were included in the propensity score-matched population, of whom 210 received tocilizumab and 420 did not receive tocilizumab. 358 (57%) of 630 patients died, 102 (49%) who received tocilizumab and 256 (61%) who did not receive tocilizumab. Overall median survival from time of admission was not reached (95% CI 23 days-not reached) among patients receiving tocilizumab and was 19 days (16-26) for those who did not receive tocilizumab (hazard ratio [HR] 0•71, 95% CI 0•56-0•89; p=0•0027). In the primary multivariable Cox regression analysis with propensity matching, an association was noted between receiving tocilizumab and decreased hospital-related mortality (HR 0•64, 95% CI 0•47-0•87; p=0•0040). Similar associations with tocilizumab were noted among subgroups requiring mechanical ventilatory support and with baseline C-reactive protein of 15 mg/dL or higher. Interpretation In this observational study, patients with COVID-19 requiring ICU support who received tocilizumab had reduced mortality. Results of ongoing randomised controlled trials are awaited.
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Late treatment
is less effective
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