COVIDOSE-2: A Multi-center, Randomized, Controlled Phase 2 Trial Comparing Early Administration of Low-dose Tocilizumab to Standard of Care in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonitis Not Requiring Invasive Ventilation

Reid et al., NCT04479358, COVIDOSE-2, NCT04479358, Feb 2025
Mortality, all -56% improvement lower risk ← → higher risk Mortality, 120mg 66% Mortality, 40mg -212% Recovery time, all pati.. -2% Recovery time, 120mg 20% Recovery time, 40mg -40% Tocilizumab  COVIDOSE-2  LATE TREATMENT RCT Is late treatment with tocilizumab beneficial for COVID-19? RCT 85 patients in the USA Trial underpowered for serious outcomes c19early.org Reid et al., NCT04479358, February 2025 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ RR
RCT 85 patients in the USA showing no significant differences with tocilizumab treatment.
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, the USA, is very poor with very low average efficacy for approved treatments1. Only expensive, high-profit treatments were approved for early treatment. Low-cost treatments were excluded, reducing the probability of early treatment due to access and cost barriers, and eliminating complementary and synergistic benefits seen with many low-cost treatments.
risk of death, 56.0% higher, RR 1.56, p = 1.00, treatment 3 of 50 (6.0%), control 1 of 26 (3.8%), all patients.
risk of death, 66.2% lower, RR 0.34, p = 1.00, treatment 0 of 25 (0.0%), control 1 of 26 (3.8%), NNT 26, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm), 120mg.
risk of death, 212.0% higher, RR 3.12, p = 0.35, treatment 3 of 25 (12.0%), control 1 of 26 (3.8%), 40mg.
recovery time, 2.5% higher, relative time 1.02, p = 0.94, treatment 25, control 26, all patients.
recovery time, 20.0% lower, relative time 0.80, p = 0.09, treatment 4.0 [4.0-5.0] n=25, control 5.0 [4.0-6.0] n=26, 120mg.
recovery time, 40.0% higher, relative time 1.40, p = 0.15, treatment 7.0 [4.0-9.0] n=25, control 5.0 [4.0-6.0] n=26, 40mg.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Reid et al., 10 Feb 2025, Randomized Controlled Trial, USA, preprint, 1 author, trial NCT04479358 (history) (COVIDOSE-2). Contact: pankti.reid@bsd.uchicago.edu.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org September 2026 USA Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines Vietnam Japan Argentina Nepal Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Nigeria Taiwan Fiji Zambia Bosnia-Herzegovina Jordan Georgia Switzerland Dominican Republic Bolivia Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Togo Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Iceland New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel Haiti North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org September 2026 USA Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines Vietnam Japan Argentina Nepal Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Taiwan Fiji Zambia Jordan Georgia Switzerland Dominican Rep. Bolivia Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Togo Sri Lanka Bulgaria Greece Slovakia New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
Late treatment
is less effective
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