c19early.org COVID-19 treatment researchCOVID-19 treatments

Evaluating the Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to Prevent Hospitalization or Death in Persons With COVID-19

Smith et al., NCT04358068, NCT04358068, Jul 2020

HCQ for COVID-19

1st treatment shown to reduce risk in March 2020, now with p < 0.0000000001 from 426 studies, used in 59 countries.
Lower risk for mortality, hospitalization, progression, recovery, cases, and viral clearance.

No treatment is 100% effective.
Protocols combine treatments.

6,700+ studies · 220+ treatments

c19early.org
Meta-analysis
Early terminated NIAID RCT for HCQ. Patients >60 were only in the HCQ arm. 57% of patients were high risk in the HCQ arm vs. 22% for control. Treatment started up to 20 days after symptoms.
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, the USA, is very poor with very low average efficacy for approved treatments1. Only expensive, high-profit treatments were approved for early treatment. Low-cost treatments were excluded, reducing the probability of early treatment due to access and cost barriers, and eliminating complementary and synergistic benefits seen with many low-cost treatments.
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OutcomeImprovementEffect · pTreatmentControl
risk of hospitalization 64.0% lower · RR 0.36 · p = 1.00 64.0% lowerRR 0.36p = 1.00 0 of 7 (0.0%) 1 of 9 (11.1%) treatment 0 of 7 (0.0%), control 1 of 9 (11.1%)NNT 9.0continuity correction due to zero events
recovery time 10.0% higher · relative time 1.10 · 10.0% higherrelative time 1.10 7 9 treatment 7, control 9

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates.

Smith et al., 8 Jul 2020, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, placebo-controlled, USA, preprint, 1 author, average treatment delay 5.0 days, dosage 400mg bid day 1, 200mg bid days 2-7, trial NCT04358068 (history).
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org November 2026 USA Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines Vietnam Japan Argentina Nepal Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Nigeria Taiwan Fiji Zambia Bosnia-Herzegovina Jordan Georgia Switzerland Dominican Republic Bolivia Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Togo Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Iceland New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel Haiti North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org November 2026 USA Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Myanmar South Africa Peru Philippines Vietnam Japan Argentina Nepal Iran Bangladesh Ethiopia Ghana Germany Mexico South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland Uzbekistan India China Venezuela DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Egypt Taiwan Fiji Zambia Jordan Georgia Switzerland Dominican Rep. Bolivia Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Togo Sri Lanka Bulgaria Greece Slovakia New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago Mongolia Czechia Belarus Israel North Macedonia Hong Kong Qatar Panama Serbia USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%