Low vs. Moderate to High Dose Vitamin D for Prevention of COVID-19

Meltzer et al., NCT04868903, NCT04868903, Dec 2024
Case, 10,000 IU vs. 4.. 1% improvement lower risk ← → higher risk Vitamin D  Meltzer et al.  PROPHYLAXIS RCT Does vitamin D reduce COVID-19 infections? Double-blind RCT 1,475 patients in the USA No significant difference in cases c19early.org Meltzer et al., NCT04868903, December 2024 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ RR
Vitamin D for COVID-19
8th treatment shown to reduce risk in October 2020, now with p < 0.00000000001 from 136 studies, recognized in 18 countries.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols combine treatments.
6,300+ studies for 210+ treatments. c19early.org
RCT 923 outpatients with baseline vitamin D levels 36 ng/ml, comparing 400, 4,000, and 10,000 IU vitamin D per day, showing lower cases with 4,000 IU vs. 400 IU, significant in Cox multivariable analysis. There was no benefit seen for 10,000 IU. There was no control group, and there was no hospitalization or more severe outcomes in any group.
This is the 41st COVID-19 RCT for vitamin D, which collectively show efficacy with p=0.0000001.
This is the 137th COVID-19 controlled study for vitamin D, which collectively show efficacy with p<0.0000000001 (1 in 12 octillion).
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, the USA, is very poor with very low average efficacy for approved treatments1. Only expensive, high-profit treatments were approved for early treatment. Low-cost treatments were excluded, reducing the probability of early treatment due to access and cost barriers, and eliminating complementary and synergistic benefits seen with many low-cost treatments.
risk of case, 1.0% lower, HR 0.99, p = 0.98, treatment 162, control 162, adjusted per study, 10,000 IU vs. 400 IU, multivariable, Cox proportional hazards.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Meltzer et al., 10 Dec 2024, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, USA, preprint, 1 author, dosage 10,000IU daily, trial NCT04868903 (history). Contact: dmeltzer@bsd.uchicago.edu.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org December 2025 USA Russia Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Vietnam Peru Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Japan Canada China Uzbekistan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Bosnia-Herzegovina Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore Iceland New Zealand Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago Hong Kong North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia CAR USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org December 2025 USA Russia Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Vietnam Peru Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Japan Canada China Uzbekistan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore New Zealand Malawi Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia Syria USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
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