Melatonin for COVID-19: real-time meta analysis of 18 studies

• Statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, ventilation, and recovery. 9 studies from 9 independent teams in 5 different countries show statistically significant improvements in isolation (7 for the most serious outcome).• Meta analysis using the most serious outcome reported shows 43% [30‑54%] improvement. Results are slightly worse for Randomized Controlled Trials, similar after exclusions, and slightly worse for peer-reviewed studies. Early treatment is more effective than late treatment. • No treatment, vaccine, or intervention is 100% effective and available. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used based on risk/benefit analysis. Multiple treatments are typically used in combination, and other treatments may be more effective. Only 11% of melatonin studies show zero events with treatment. The quality of non-prescription supplements can vary widely [Crawford, Crighton].• All data to reproduce this paper and sources are in the appendix. Other meta analyses for melatonin can be found in [Lan, Pilia, Tan, Wang], showing significant improvements for mortality and recovery.

Percentage improvement with melatonin (more)

	Early treatment	Late treatment	All studies	Studies	Patients	Authors
All studies	78% [25‑94%]*	45% [27‑58%]****	43% [30‑54%]****	18	14,301	159
Randomized Controlled TrialsRCTs	73% [-5‑93%]	23% [0‑41%]*	26% [4‑43%]*	9	1,022	88
Mortality	-	48% [27‑63%]***	48% [27‑63%]***	9	2,054	52
Cases	-	-	38% [-6‑64%]	3	11,986	51
RCT mortality	-	25% [-7‑48%]	25% [-7‑48%]	4	547	30