• Statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, ventilation, and recovery. 9 studies from 9 independent teams in 5 different countries show statistically significant improvements in isolation (7 for the most serious outcome).
• Meta analysis using the most serious outcome reported shows 43% [30‑54%] improvement. Results are slightly worse for Randomized Controlled Trials, similar after exclusions, and slightly worse for peer-reviewed studies. Early treatment is more effective than late treatment.
• No treatment, vaccine, or intervention is 100% effective and available. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used based on risk/benefit analysis. Multiple treatments are typically used in combination, and other treatments may be more effective. Only 11% of melatonin studies show zero events with treatment. The quality of non-prescription supplements can vary widely [Crawford, Crighton].
• All data to reproduce this paper and sources are in the appendix. Other meta analyses for melatonin can be found in [Lan, Pilia, Tan, Wang], showing significant improvements for mortality and recovery.
Percentage improvement with melatonin (more) | Early treatment | Late treatment | All studies | Studies | Patients | Authors |
All studies | 78% [25‑94%]* | 45% [27‑58%]**** | 43% [30‑54%]**** | 18 | 14,301 | 159 |
Randomized Controlled TrialsRCTs | 73% [-5‑93%] | 23% [0‑41%]* | 26% [4‑43%]* | 9 | 1,022 | 88 |
Mortality | - | 48% [27‑63%]*** | 48% [27‑63%]*** | 9 | 2,054 | 52 |
Cases | - | - | 38% [-6‑64%] | 3 | 11,986 | 51 |
RCT mortality | - | 25% [-7‑48%] | 25% [-7‑48%] | 4 | 547 | 30 |
Covid Analysis et al., Jun 2023, preprint, 1 author.