Spatial and Temporal Correlations of COVID-19 Mortality in Europe with Atmospheric Cloudiness and Solar Radiation

DOI record: { "DOI": "10.3390/ijgi14080283", "ISSN": [ "2220-9964" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi14080283", "abstract": "<jats:p>Previous studies reported the links between the COVID-19 incidence and weather factors, but few investigated their impact and timing on mortality, at a continental scale. We systematically investigated the temporal relationship of COVID-19 mortality in the European countries in the 1st year of pandemic (March–December 2020) with (i) solar insolation (W/m2) at the ground level and (ii) objective sky cloudiness (as decimal cloud fraction), both derived from satellite measurements. We checked the correlations of these factors within a sliding window of two months for the whole period. Linear-mixed effect modeling revealed that overall, for the European countries (adjusted for latitude), COVID-19 mortality was substantially negatively correlated with solar insolation in the previous month (std. beta −0.69). Separately, mortality was significantly correlated with the cloudiness in both the previous month (std. beta +0.14) and the respective month (std. beta +0.32). This time gap of ∼1 month between the COVID-19 mortality and correlated weather factors was previously unreported. The long-term monitoring of these factors might be important for epidemiological policy decisions especially in the initial period of potential future pandemics when effective medical treatment might not yet be available.</jats:p>", "alternative-id": [ "ijgi14080283" ], "author": [ { "ORCID": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5987-1789", "affiliation": [ { "name": "Biophysics Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 050474 Bucharest, Romania" } ], "authenticated-orcid": false, "family": "Iftime", "given": "Adrian", "sequence": "first" }, { "ORCID": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6797-3902", "affiliation": [ { "name": "MedLife Life Memorial Hospital, Calea Griviței 365, 010719 Bucharest, Romania" } ], "authenticated-orcid": false, "family": "Omer", "given": "Secil", "sequence": "additional" }, { "ORCID": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3269-5375", "affiliation": [ { "name": "Biophysics Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 050474 Bucharest, Romania" }, { "name": "Ștefan S. Nicolau Institute of Virology, 030304 Bucharest, Romania" } ], "authenticated-orcid": false, "family": "Burcea", "given": "Victor-Andrei", "sequence": "additional" }, { "ORCID": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8003-0442", "affiliation": [ { "name": "Biophysics Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 050474 Bucharest, Romania" } ], "authenticated-orcid": false, "family": "Călinescu", "given": "Octavian", "sequence": "additional" }, { "ORCID": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7161-7118", "affiliation": [ { "name": "Biophysics Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 050474 Bucharest, Romania" } ], "authenticated-orcid": false, "family": "Babeș", "given": "Ramona-Madalina", "sequence": "additional" } ], "container-title": "ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information", "container-title-short": "IJGI", "content-domain": { "crossmark-restriction": false, "domain": [] }, "created": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 22 ] ], "date-time": "2025-07-22T15:00:42Z", "timestamp": 1753196442000 }, "deposited": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 22 ] ], "date-time": "2025-07-22T15:11:33Z", "timestamp": 1753197093000 }, "indexed": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 23 ] ], "date-time": "2025-07-23T00:07:46Z", "timestamp": 1753229266913, "version": "3.41.2" }, "is-referenced-by-count": 0, "issue": "8", "issued": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 22 ] ] }, "journal-issue": { "issue": "8", "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 8 ] ] } }, "language": "en", "license": [ { "URL": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "content-version": "vor", "delay-in-days": 0, "start": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 22 ] ], "date-time": "2025-07-22T00:00:00Z", "timestamp": 1753142400000 } } ], "link": [ { "URL": "https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/14/8/283/pdf", "content-type": "unspecified", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "similarity-checking" } ], "member": "1968", "original-title": [], "page": "283", "prefix": "10.3390", "published": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 22 ] ] }, "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 7, 22 ] ] }, "publisher": "MDPI AG", "reference": [ { "DOI": "10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10333", "article-title": "Correlation between COVID-19 and weather variables: A meta-analysis", "author": "Islam", "doi-asserted-by": "crossref", "first-page": "e10333", "journal-title": "Heliyon", "key": "ref_1", "volume": "8", "year": "2022" }, { "DOI": "10.1016/j.envres.2022.113297", "article-title": "A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission", "author": "Li", "doi-asserted-by": "crossref", "first-page": "113297", "journal-title": "Environ. 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