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Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab versus no treatment in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 patients in north west London: a retrospective cohort study

Drysdale et al., BMJ Open Respiratory Research, doi:10.1136/bmjresp-2023-002238
Jul 2023  
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Mortality 29% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality, ≥65 45% Mortality, <65 -98% Mortality, period 2 41% Mortality, period 3 -4% Death/hospitalization 50% Hospitalization 57% Sotrovimab  Drysdale et al.  EARLY TREATMENT Is early treatment with sotrovimab beneficial for COVID-19? Retrospective 5,790 patients in the United Kingdom (Aug 2020 - Mar 2021) Lower death/hosp. (p=0.07) and hospitalization (p=0.051), not sig. c19early.org Drysdale et al., BMJ Open Respiratory .., Jul 2023 Favorssotrovimab Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
Sotrovimab for COVID-19
41st treatment shown to reduce risk in May 2023, now with p = 0.002 from 25 studies, recognized in 38 countries. Efficacy is variant dependent.
Lower risk for mortality, ICU, and hospitalization.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols combine treatments.
5,100+ studies for 112 treatments. c19early.org
Retrospective 599 high-risk sotrovimab patients and 5,191 untreated controls, showing lower hospitalization/mortality with treatment, without statistical significance in the overall cohort. Efficacy was better for those ≥65, and efficacy was lower in later time periods.
Confounding by treatment propensity. This study analyzes a population where only a fraction of eligible patients received the treatment. Patients receiving treatment may be more likely to follow other recommendations, more likely to receive additional care, and more likely to use additional treatments that are not tracked in the data (e.g., nasal/oral hygiene1,2, vitamin D3, etc.) — either because the physician recommending sotrovimab also recommended them, or because the patient seeking out sotrovimab is more likely to be familiar with the efficacy of additional treatments and more likely to take the time to use them. Therefore, these kind of studies may overestimate the efficacy of treatments.
Efficacy is variant dependent. In Vitro studies predict lower efficacy for BA.14-6, BA.4, BA.57, XBB.1.9.3, XBB.1.5.24, XBB.2.9, CH.1.18, and no efficacy for BA.29, XBB, XBB.1.5, ХВВ.1.9.110, XBB.1.16, BQ.1.1.45, and CL.18. US EUA has been revoked.
risk of death, 29.0% lower, HR 0.71, p = 0.65, treatment 599, control 5,191, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
risk of death, 45.0% lower, HR 0.55, p = 0.55, ≥65 years old, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
risk of death, 98.0% higher, HR 1.98, p = 0.55, <65 years old, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
risk of death, 41.0% lower, HR 0.59, p = 0.62, period 2, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
risk of death, 4.0% higher, HR 1.04, p = 0.97, period 3, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
risk of death/hospitalization, 50.0% lower, HR 0.50, p = 0.07, treatment 599, control 5,191, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
risk of hospitalization, 57.0% lower, HR 0.43, p = 0.05, treatment 599, control 5,191, propensity score weighting, Cox proportional hazards.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Drysdale et al., 27 Jul 2023, retrospective, United Kingdom, peer-reviewed, 14 authors, study period August 2020 - March 2021. Contact: myriam.g.drysdale@gsk.com.
This PaperSotrovimabAll
Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab versus no treatment in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 patients in north west London: a retrospective cohort study
Dr Myriam Drysdale, Evgeniy R Galimov, Marcus James Yarwood, Vishal Patel, Bethany Levick, Daniel C Gibbons, Jonathan D Watkins, Sophie Young, Benjamin F Pierce, Emily J Lloyd, William Kerr, Helen J Birch, Tahereh Kamalati, Stephen J Brett
BMJ Open Respiratory Research, doi:10.1136/bmjresp-2023-002238
Background We assessed the effectiveness of sotrovimab vs no early COVID-19 treatment in highest-risk COVID-19 patients during Omicron predominance. Methods Retrospective cohort study using the Discover dataset in North West London. Included patients were nonhospitalised, aged ≥12 years and met ≥1 National Health Service highest-risk criterion for sotrovimab treatment. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare HRs of 28-day COVID-19-related hospitalisation/death between highest-risk sotrovimab-treated and untreated patients. Age, renal disease and Omicron subvariant subgroup analyses were performed. Results We included 599 sotrovimab-treated patients and 5191 untreated patients. Compared with untreated patients, the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation/death (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.24, 1.06; p=0.07) and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.18, 1.00; p=0.051) were both lower in the sotrovimab-treated group; however, statistical significance was not reached. In the ≥65 years and renal disease subgroups, sotrovimab was associated with a significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation, by 89% (HR 0.11, 95% CI 0.02, 0.82; p=0.03) and 82% (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.05, 0.62; p=0.007), respectively. Conclusions Risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation in sotrovimab-treated patients aged ≥65 years and with renal disease was significantly lower compared with untreated patients. Overall, risk of hospitalisation was also lower for sotrovimab-treated patients, but statistical significance was not reached. ⇒ This study begins to fill the evidence gap in relation to early treatments for mild-to-moderate COVID-19, particularly their effectiveness against disease caused by Omicron variants to date. on April 14,
Contributors MD, MJY, VP, BL, DCG, JDW, SY, BFP, HJB, TK and SJB designed the study; ERG performed inverse probability of treatment weighted survival analysis; MJY performed descriptive analysis; MD, ERG, MJY, BL, DCG, JDW, SY, BFP, EJL, WK, TK and SJB interpreted results. MD is responsible for the overall content as the guarantor. All authors took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the manuscript; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work. Competing interests MD, DCG, EJL, WK and HJB are employees of, and/or shareholders in, GSK. VP was an employee of GSK at the time of the study and is now an employee of KVM Analytics. ERG, MJY, JDW, SY, BFP and TK are (or were at time of study) employees of Imperial College Health Partners, which received funding from GSK and Vir Biotechnology to conduct the study. BL is an employee of OPEN Health, which received funding from GSK and Vir Biotechnology, Inc, to conduct the study. A consultancy fee was paid to SJB's institutional account. Patient and public involvement Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of this research. Patient consent for publication Not applicable. Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed. Data availability statement Data are available upon reasonable request. The..
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Please send us corrections, updates, or comments. c19early involves the extraction of 100,000+ datapoints from thousands of papers. Community updates help ensure high accuracy. Treatments and other interventions are complementary. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used based on risk/benefit analysis. No treatment or intervention is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. We do not provide medical advice. Before taking any medication, consult a qualified physician who can provide personalized advice and details of risks and benefits based on your medical history and situation. FLCCC and WCH provide treatment protocols.
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