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Prognostic factors in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and effectiveness of prophylactic anticoagulant therapy: a single-center retrospective study

He et al., BMC Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3
Mar 2025  
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Mortality, all -48% Improvement Relative Risk Mortality, w/o VTE -55% Mortality, VTE 43% Azvudine for COVID-19  He et al.  LATE TREATMENT Is late treatment with azvudine beneficial for COVID-19? Retrospective 2,520 patients in China (December 2022 - January 2023) Higher mortality with azvudine (p=0.000063) c19early.org He et al., BMC Infectious Diseases, Mar 2025 Favorsazvudine Favorscontrol 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
Azvudine for COVID-19
45th treatment shown to reduce risk in July 2023, now with p = 0.000008 from 33 studies.
Lower risk for mortality, progression, and viral clearance.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols combine treatments.
5,500+ studies for 119 treatments. c19early.org
Retrospective 2,520 hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia patients focusing on prophylactic anticoagulation but also reporting results for azvudine and paxlovid.
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, China, is poor with low average efficacy for approved treatments1.
Study covers azvudine and paxlovid.
risk of death, 47.5% higher, RR 1.48, p < 0.001, treatment 165 of 865 (19.1%), control 214 of 1,655 (12.9%), all.
risk of death, 54.6% higher, RR 1.55, p < 0.001, treatment 158 of 832 (19.0%), control 198 of 1,612 (12.3%), w/o VTE.
risk of death, 43.0% lower, RR 0.57, p = 0.21, treatment 7 of 33 (21.2%), control 16 of 43 (37.2%), NNT 6.3, VTE.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
He et al., 3 Mar 2025, retrospective, China, peer-reviewed, median age 71.0, 8 authors, study period December 2022 - January 2023. Contact: guoluhx@126.com.
This PaperAzvudineAll
Prognostic factors in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and effectiveness of prophylactic anticoagulant therapy: a single-center retrospective study
Xing He, Chun Zhang, Jiaqi Ji, Yang Liu, Wanjie Feng, Linjie Luo, Hong Fan, Lu Guo
BMC Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3
Background COVID-19 pneumonia patients encounter the potential risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and mortality during hospitalization. This study aimed to analyzed risk factors of all-cause mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, and investigated the effectiveness of prophylactic anticoagulation and hospital stays on the mortality in hospitalized patients with nonVTE. Methods We retrospectively analyzed all COVID-19 pneumonia patients who were admitted to our medical center from December 2022 to January 2023. Clinical data and outcome events were collected from patients' electronic medical records. Cox regression was used to identify poor prognostic factors of COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE and nonVTE. Landmark analysis was conducted to identify time points of hospital stays between anticoagulation treatment and in-hospital survival outcomes in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate factors related to prolonged hospital stays. Results Among 2,520 COVID-19 pneumonia patients, 1047 received prophylactic anticoagulation and 76 complicated with VTE during hospitalization. Survival curve analysis showed no statistically significant difference in mortality between COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE and nonVTE in prophylactic anticoagulant group (P = 0.63). Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed that male(HR = 1.398, 95%CI= [1.021,1.915]), BMI (HR = 0.935, 95%CI= [0.900,0.972]), lymphocytes (HR = 0.576, 95%CI= [0.409,0.809]), platelets (HR = 0.997, 95%CI= [0.995,0.999]), albumin (HR = 0.950, 95%CI= [0.926,0.975]), lactate dehydrogenase (HR = 1.001, 95%CI= [1.001,1.002]) were risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE, while sCRP (HR = 1.010, 95%CI= [1.004,1.015]), anticoagulant therapy (HR = 0.247, 95%CI= [0.096,0.632]) were risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE. Landmark analysis showed that for the hospital stays of 11 days, the difference in the impact of prophylactic anticoagulation on mortality was statistically significant in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE (≤ 11days, P = 0.014; > 11days, P = 0.01). CVD (OR = 1.717, 95%CI= [1.248,2.363]), CRD (OR = 1.605, 95%CI= [1.133,2.274]), sCRP (OR = 1.003, 95%CI= [1.000,1.006]), Alb (OR = 0.959, 95%CI = [0.932,0.987]) and use of glucocorticoid (OR = 1.428, 95%CI= [1.057,1.930]) were independent factors associated with hospital stays > 11 days in anticoagulant group.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at h t t p s : / / d o i . o r g / 1 0 . 1 1 8 6 / s 1 2 8 7 9 -0 2 5 -1 0 6 6 6 -3. Supplementary Material 1 Author contributions Conception and design: X He, L Guo; administrative support: L Luo, L Guo; provision of study materials or patients: L Guo, J Ji; collection and assembly of data: X He, C Zhang, Y Liu, W Feng; data analysis and interpretation: X He, J Ji, H Fan, L Guo; manuscript writing: all authors; and final approval of the manuscript: all authors. Data availability The original data presented in the study are included in the manuscript/ Supplementary Material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author. Declarations Ethics approval and consent to participate The study was carried out according to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki, and was approved by Institutional Review Board of Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (Process No. 2024 -570). Written informed consent was obtained from all patients or their guardians before enrolment in the study. the study was conducted in accordance with the principles established in the Declaration of helsinki and the international council for harmonisation Guidelines for Good clinical Practice. Consent for publication Authors are all agreed to publication. Conflict of interest Authors have no conflict of interest. Competing interests The..
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DOI record: { "DOI": "10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3", "ISSN": [ "1471-2334" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3", "abstract": "<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>\n <jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Background</jats:title>\n <jats:p>COVID-19 pneumonia patients encounter the potential risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and mortality during hospitalization. This study aimed to analyzed risk factors of all-cause mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, and investigated the effectiveness of prophylactic anticoagulation and hospital stays on the mortality in hospitalized patients with nonVTE.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec>\n <jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Methods</jats:title>\n <jats:p>We retrospectively analyzed all COVID-19 pneumonia patients who were admitted to our medical center from December 2022 to January 2023. Clinical data and outcome events were collected from patients’ electronic medical records. Cox regression was used to identify poor prognostic factors of COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE and nonVTE. Landmark analysis was conducted to identify time points of hospital stays between anticoagulation treatment and in-hospital survival outcomes in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate factors related to prolonged hospital stays.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec>\n <jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Results</jats:title>\n <jats:p>Among 2,520 COVID-19 pneumonia patients, 1047 received prophylactic anticoagulation and 76 complicated with VTE during hospitalization. Survival curve analysis showed no statistically significant difference in mortality between COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE and nonVTE in prophylactic anticoagulant group (<jats:italic>P</jats:italic> = 0.63). Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed that male(HR = 1.398, 95%CI= [1.021,1.915]), BMI (HR = 0.935, 95%CI= [0.900,0.972]), lymphocytes (HR = 0.576, 95%CI= [0.409,0.809]), platelets (HR = 0.997, 95%CI= [0.995,0.999]), albumin (HR = 0.950, 95%CI= [0.926,0.975]), lactate dehydrogenase (HR = 1.001, 95%CI= [1.001,1.002]) were risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE, while sCRP (HR = 1.010, 95%CI= [1.004,1.015]), anticoagulant therapy (HR = 0.247, 95%CI= [0.096,0.632]) were risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE. Landmark analysis showed that for the hospital stays of 11 days, the difference in the impact of prophylactic anticoagulation on mortality was statistically significant in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE (≤ 11days, <jats:italic>P</jats:italic> = 0.014; &gt; 11days, <jats:italic>P</jats:italic> = 0.01). CVD (OR = 1.717, 95%CI= [1.248,2.363]), CRD (OR = 1.605, 95%CI= [1.133,2.274]), sCRP (OR = 1.003, 95%CI= [1.000,1.006]), Alb (OR = 0.959, 95%CI = [0.932,0.987]) and use of glucocorticoid (OR = 1.428, 95%CI= [1.057,1.930]) were independent factors associated with hospital stays &gt; 11 days in anticoagulant group.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec>\n <jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title>\n <jats:p>This study indicated that Male, lower BMI, peripheral blood lymphocytes, platelets, albumin and elevated lactate dehydrogenase were associated with poor hospitalisation outcomes in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE. As for COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE, poor hospitalisation outcomes were associated with elevated sCRP levels and no given anticoagulant therapy. No significant difference in mortality between hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia patients with VTE and nonVTE when receiving prophylactic anticoagulation. Prolonged hospital stays (&gt; 11 days) may limit the effectiveness of prophylactic anticoagulation on lower in-hospital mortality for COVID-19 pneumonia patients with nonVTE.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec>", "alternative-id": [ "10666" ], "article-number": "303", "assertion": [ { "group": { "label": "Article History", "name": "ArticleHistory" }, "label": "Received", "name": "received", "order": 1, "value": "5 November 2024" }, { "group": { "label": "Article History", "name": "ArticleHistory" }, "label": "Accepted", "name": "accepted", "order": 2, "value": "18 February 2025" }, { "group": { "label": "Article History", "name": "ArticleHistory" }, "label": "First Online", "name": "first_online", "order": 3, "value": "3 March 2025" }, { "group": { "label": "Declarations", "name": "EthicsHeading" }, "name": "Ethics", "order": 1 }, { "group": { "label": "Ethics approval and consent to participate", "name": "EthicsHeading" }, "name": "Ethics", "order": 2, "value": "The study was carried out according to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki, and was approved by Institutional Review Board of Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (Process No. 2024 − 570). Written informed consent was obtained from all patients or their guardians before enrolment in the study. the study was conducted in accordance with the principles established in the Declaration of helsinki and the international council for harmonisation Guidelines for Good clinical Practice." }, { "group": { "label": "Consent for publication", "name": "EthicsHeading" }, "name": "Ethics", "order": 3, "value": "Authors are all agreed to publication." }, { "group": { "label": "Conflict of interest", "name": "EthicsHeading" }, "name": "Ethics", "order": 4, "value": "Authors have no conflict of interest." }, { "group": { "label": "Competing interests", "name": "EthicsHeading" }, "name": "Ethics", "order": 5, "value": "The authors declare no competing interests." } ], "author": [ { "affiliation": [], "family": "He", "given": "Xing", "sequence": "first" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Zhang", "given": "Chun", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Ji", "given": "Jiaqi", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Liu", "given": "Yang", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Feng", "given": "Wanjie", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Luo", "given": "Linjie", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Fan", "given": "Hong", "sequence": "additional" }, { "affiliation": [], "family": "Guo", "given": "Lu", "sequence": "additional" } ], "container-title": "BMC Infectious Diseases", "container-title-short": "BMC Infect Dis", "content-domain": { "crossmark-restriction": false, "domain": [ "link.springer.com" ] }, "created": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ], "date-time": "2025-03-03T14:35:44Z", "timestamp": 1741012544000 }, "deposited": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ], "date-time": "2025-03-03T14:35:55Z", "timestamp": 1741012555000 }, "funder": [ { "award": [ "Q21048" ], "name": "Sichuan Medical Association Youth Innovation Project" }, { "award": [ "KY2022SJ0116" ], "name": "Scientific Research Project of Sichuan Medical and Healthcare Promotion Institute" }, { "award": [ "2022-YF09-00003-SN" ], "name": "Major Science and Technology Application Demonstration Project of Chengdu Science and Technology Bureau" } ], "indexed": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 4 ] ], "date-time": "2025-03-04T05:42:50Z", "timestamp": 1741066970252, "version": "3.38.0" }, "is-referenced-by-count": 0, "issue": "1", "issued": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ] }, "journal-issue": { "issue": "1", "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 12 ] ] } }, "language": "en", "license": [ { "URL": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0", "content-version": "tdm", "delay-in-days": 0, "start": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ], "date-time": "2025-03-03T00:00:00Z", "timestamp": 1740960000000 } }, { "URL": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0", "content-version": "vor", "delay-in-days": 0, "start": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ], "date-time": "2025-03-03T00:00:00Z", "timestamp": 1740960000000 } } ], "link": [ { "URL": "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3.pdf", "content-type": "application/pdf", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "text-mining" }, { "URL": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3/fulltext.html", "content-type": "text/html", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "text-mining" }, { "URL": "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12879-025-10666-3.pdf", "content-type": "application/pdf", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "similarity-checking" } ], "member": "297", "original-title": [], "prefix": "10.1186", "published": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ] }, "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2025, 3, 3 ] ] }, "publisher": "Springer Science and Business Media LLC", "reference": [ { "DOI": "10.1038/s41586-022-04447-0", "author": "Q Zhang", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "587", "issue": "7902", "journal-title": "Nature", "key": "10666_CR1", "unstructured": "Zhang Q, Bastard P, Cobat A, et al. 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Late treatment
is less effective
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