Concerns regarding the misinterpretation of statistical hypothesis testing in clinical trials for COVID-19

Open letter signed by 38 professors and doctors regarding misinterpretation of statistics in HCQ RCTs.

Authors note1 that data from RCTs for early treatment in outpatients to date actually show favorable effects, especially in high-risk patients such as the elderly, where efficacy was up to three times higher than in young people. Because most samples were made up of young people without comorbidities, the studies were statistically inconclusive with the entire samples. Authors note that instead of the papers reporting this, they incorrectly claim that the treatment had no effect compared to the placebo. “This misinterpretation in statistical tests is well known and explained in most undergraduate books in the field,” says Watanabe. "An article published in Nature last year states that about 51% of the work on clinical trials with this type of result has incorrect conclusions."

9 meta analyses show significant improvements with hydroxychloroquine for mortality2-5, hospitalization2, recovery6, combined death/hospitalization/cases7, cases8,9, and viral clearance10.

Currently there are 38 HCQ for COVID-19 early treatment studies, showing 76% lower mortality [61‑85%], 67% lower ventilation [-710‑99%], 31% lower ICU admission [1‑53%], and 41% lower hospitalization [28‑51%].