Effect of Antithrombotic Therapy on Clinical Outcomes in Outpatients With Clinically Stable Symptomatic COVID-19

Connors et al., JAMA, doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1727283, ACTIV-4B, NCT04498273, Oct 2021
Hospitalization 67% improvement lower risk ← → higher risk Progression 19% Progression b 6% primary Aspirin for COVID-19  ACTIV-4B  EARLY TREATMENT RCT Is early treatment with aspirin beneficial for COVID-19? Double-blind RCT 280 patients in the USA (September 2020 - June 2021) Lower hospitalization with aspirin (not stat. sig., p=0.49) c19early.org Connors et al., JAMA, October 2021 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ RR
Early terminated RCT with 164 aspirin and 164 control patients in the USA with very few events, showing no significant difference with aspirin treatment for the combined endpoint of all-cause mortality, symptomatic venous or arterial thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary indication. There was no mortality and no major bleeding events among participants that started treatment (there was one ITT placebo death).
Standard of Care (SOC) for COVID-19 in the study country, the USA, is very poor with very low average efficacy for approved treatments1. Only expensive, high-profit treatments were approved for early treatment. Low-cost treatments were excluded, reducing the probability of early treatment due to access and cost barriers, and eliminating complementary and synergistic benefits seen with many low-cost treatments.
risk of hospitalization, 67.3% lower, RR 0.33, p = 0.49, treatment 0 of 144 (0.0%), control 1 of 136 (0.7%), NNT 136, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm), hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary indication, suspected, started treatment.
risk of progression, 19.0% lower, RR 0.81, p = 0.78, treatment 6 of 144 (4.2%), control 7 of 136 (5.1%), NNT 102, acute medical event, suspected, started treatment.
risk of progression, 5.6% lower, RR 0.94, p = 1.00, treatment 1 of 144 (0.7%), control 1 of 136 (0.7%), NNT 2448, combined endpoint of all-cause mortality, symptomatic venous or arterial thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary indication, suspected, started treatment, primary outcome.
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Connors et al., 11 Oct 2021, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, placebo-controlled, USA, peer-reviewed, 27 authors, study period September 2020 - June 2021, trial NCT04498273 (history) (ACTIV-4B).
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org November 2025 USA Russia Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Vietnam Peru Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Japan Canada China Uzbekistan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Bosnia-Herzegovina Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore Iceland New Zealand Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago Hong Kong North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia CAR USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org November 2025 USA Russia Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Vietnam Peru Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Japan Canada China Uzbekistan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore New Zealand Malawi Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia Syria USA favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
Effect of Antithrombotic Therapy on Clinical Outcomes in Outpatients With Clinically Stable Symptomatic COVID-19 The ACTIV-4B Randomized Clinical Trial
MD Jean M Connors, PhD; Maria M Brooks, MD Frank C Sciurba, MD Jerry A Krishnan, MD Joseph R Bledsoe, MD Andrei Kindzelski, MS Amanda L Baucom, PhD Bridget-Anne Kirwan, MS Lauren Castro, PharmD Nancy L Shapiro, MD Janet Y Lin, MD Peter C Hou, MD Carl J Pepine, PhD Eileen Handberg, MD Daniel O Haight, MD Jason W Wilson, MD Sarah Majercik, MS Zhuxuan Fu, PhD Yongqi Zhong, PhD Vidya Venugopal, PhD Scott Beach, PhD; Steve Wisniewski, MD Paul M Ridker
doi:10.1001/jama.2021.17272
IMPORTANCE Acutely ill inpatients with COVID-19 typically receive antithrombotic therapy, although the risks and benefits of this intervention among outpatients with COVID-19 have not been established. OBJECTIVE To assess whether anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy can safely reduce major adverse cardiopulmonary outcomes among symptomatic but clinically stable outpatients with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The ACTIV-4B Outpatient Thrombosis Prevention Trial was designed as a minimal-contact, adaptive, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to compare anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy among 7000 symptomatic but clinically stable outpatients with COVID-19. The trial was conducted at 52 US sites between September 2020 and June 2021; final follow-up was August 5, 2021. Prior to initiating treatment, participants were required to have platelet count greater than 100 000/mm 3 and estimated glomerular filtration rate greater than 30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . INTERVENTIONS Random allocation in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to aspirin (81 mg orally once daily; n = 164), prophylactic-dose apixaban (2.5 mg orally twice daily; n = 165), therapeutic-dose apixaban (5 mg orally twice daily; n = 164), or placebo (n = 164) for 45 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality, symptomatic venous or arterial thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary cause. The primary analyses for efficacy and bleeding events were limited to participants who took at least 1 dose of trial medication. RESULTS On June 18, 2021, the trial data and safety monitoring board recommended early terminationbecauseoflowerthananticipatedeventrates;atthattime,657symptomaticoutpatients with COVID-19 had been randomized (median age, 54 years [IQR, 46-59]; 59% women). The median times from diagnosis to randomization and from randomization to initiation of study treatment were 7 days and 3 days, respectively. Twenty-two randomized participants (3.3%) were hospitalized for COVID-19 prior to initiating treatment. Among the 558 patients who initiated treatment, the adjudicated primary composite end point occurred in 1 patient (0.7%) in the aspirin group, 1 patient (0.7%) in the 2.5-mg apixaban group, 2 patients (1.4%) in the 5-mg apixaban group, and 1 patient (0.7%) in the placebo group. The risk differences compared with placebo for the primary end point were 0.0% (95% CI not calculable) in the aspirin group, 0.7% (95% CI, -2.1% to 4.1%) in the 2.5-mg apixaban group, and 1.4% (95% CI, -1.5% to 5.0%) in the 5-mg apixaban group. Risk differences compared with placebo for bleeding events were 2.0% (95% CI, -2.7% to 6.8%), 4.5% (95% CI, -0.7% to 10.2%), and 6.9% (95% CI, 1.4% to 12.9%) among participants who initiated therapy in the aspirin, prophylactic apixaban, and therapeutic apixaban groups, respectively, although none were major. Findings inclusive of all randomized patients were..
The trial drugs and matching placebo were donated by the Bristol Myers Squibb-Pfizer Alliance. Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The NHLBI funded the ACTIV-4B trial and had a collaborative role in the trial design. The NHLBI had no role in the collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Disclaimer: The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either express or implied, of the NIH. Group Information: A complete list of all protocol development committee members, data and safety monitoring board members, contributors from the research communications center, the data coordinating center, the drug shipment center, NHLBI Executive and Steering Committee members, and all participating sites is provided in Supplement 3 and Supplement 4. Data Sharing
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