COVID-19 treatment efficacy timeline

The time when studies indicated that treatments were effective, defined as statistically significant improvement of ≥10% from ≥3 studies. 0.6% of 7,538 proposed treatments have been identified as effective. Results reflect conditions as used in trials to date and depend on many factors including the population treated, treatment delay, and treatment regimen. Click the treatment name to see all studies, where the name of each study can be clicked on for the source paper. No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols typically combine multiple treatments which may be complementary and synergistic. Treatment efficacy may vary by variant, especially for monoclonal antibodies. All treatments have potential side effects which may exceed benefits. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used based on risk/benefit analysis. Submit Corrections or Updates

Currently, 44 of the treatments we analyze show statistically significant efficacy or harm, defined as ≥10% decreased risk or >0% increased risk from ≥3 studies.

RCT confirmation adds 7.0+ months delay. Of the 44 treatments with statistically significant efficacy/harm, 28 have been confirmed in RCTs, with a mean delay of 7.0 months. When considering only low cost treatments, 23 have been confirmed with a delay of 8.4 months. For the 16 unconfirmed treatments, 3 have zero RCTs to date. The point estimates for the remaining 13 are all consistent with the overall results (benefit or harm), with 10 showing >20%. The only treatments showing >10% efficacy for all studies, but <10% for RCTs are sotrovimab and aspirin.

Specific outcome confirmation adds 4.7+ months delay. 88% of treatments showing statistically significant efficacy/harm with pooled effects have been confirmed with one or more specific outcomes, with a mean delay of 4.7 months.

Specific outcome confirmation for RCTs adds 5.5+ months delay. When restricting to RCTs only, 54% of treatments showing statistically significant efficacy/harm with pooled effects have been confirmed with one or more specific outcomes, with a mean delay of 5.5 months.

● Pooled outcome analysis with the most serious outcome reported
● Specific outcome analysis
● Pooled outcome analysis for RCTs only
● Specific outcome analysis for RCTs only