Modifiable lifestyle factors and severe COVID-19 risk: a Mendelian randomisation study
Shuai Li, Xinyang Hua
BMC Medical Genomics, doi:10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1
Background: Lifestyle factors including obesity and smoking are suggested to be correlated with increased risk of COVID-19 severe illness or related death. However, whether these relationships are causal is not well known; neither for the relationships between COVID-19 severe illness and other common lifestyle factors, such as physical activity and alcohol consumption. Methods: Genome-wide significant genetic variants associated with body mass index (BMI), lifetime smoking, physical activity and alcohol consumption identified by large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of up to 941,280 individuals were selected as instrumental variables. Summary statistics of the genetic variants on severe illness of COVID-19 were obtained from GWAS analyses of up to 6492 cases and 1,012,809 controls. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses were conducted. Results: Both per-standard deviation (SD) increase in genetically predicted BMI and lifetime smoking were associated with about two-fold increased risks of severe respiratory COVID-19 and COVID-19 hospitalization (all P < 0.05). Per-SD increase in genetically predicted physical activity was associated with decreased risks of severe respiratory COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05, 0.74; P = 0.02), but not with COVID-19 hospitalization (OR = 0.44; 95% CI 0.18, 1.07; P = 0.07). No evidence of association was found for genetically predicted alcohol consumption. Similar results were found across robust Mendelian randomisation methods.
Conclusions: Evidence is found that BMI and smoking causally increase and physical activity might causally decrease the risk of COVID-19 severe illness. This study highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle in protecting from COVID-19 severe illness and its public health value in fighting against COVID-19 pandemic.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https ://doi. org/10.1186/s1292 0-021-00887 -1. Additional file 1: Supplementary Tables 1-4 . Summary statistics for genetic instrumental variables of the four lifestyle factors. Additional file 2: Supplementary Table 5 . Parameter values used in statistical power analysis. Additional file 3: Supplementary Table 6 . Sample sizes of participating studies in the COVID-19 Host Genetic Initiative GWAS Release 4 in September 2020. Additional file 4: Supplementary Fig. 1 . Leave-one-out analysis results for body mass index and severe respiratory COVID-19. Additional file 5: Supplementary Fig. 2 . Leave-one-out analysis results for body mass index and COVID-19 hospitalization. Additional file 6: Supplementary Fig. 3 . Leave-one-out analysis results for lifetime smoking and severe respiratory COVID-19. Additional file 7: Supplementary Fig. 4 . Leave-one-out analysis results for lifetime smoking and COVID-19 hospitalization. Additional file 8: Supplementary Fig. 5 . Leave-one-out analysis results for physical activity and severe respiratory COVID-19. Additional file 9: Supplementary Fig. 6 . Leave-one-out analysis results for physical activity and COVID-19 hospitalization. Additional file 10: Supplementary Fig. 7 . Leave-one-out analysis results for alcohol consumption and severe respiratory COVID-19 using all genetic variants. Additional file 11: Supplementary Fig. 8 . Leave-one-out..
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'abstract': '<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Background</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>Lifestyle factors including obesity and smoking are suggested to be '
'correlated with increased risk of COVID-19 severe illness or related death. However, whether '
'these relationships are causal is not well known; neither for the relationships between '
'COVID-19 severe illness and other common lifestyle factors, such as physical activity and '
'alcohol consumption.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec><jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Methods</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>Genome-wide significant genetic variants associated with body mass '
'index (BMI), lifetime smoking, physical activity and alcohol consumption identified by '
'large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of up to 941,280 individuals were selected '
'as instrumental variables. Summary statistics of the genetic variants on severe illness of '
'COVID-19 were obtained from GWAS analyses of up to 6492 cases and 1,012,809 controls. '
'Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses were conducted.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec><jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Results</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>Both per-standard deviation (SD) increase in genetically predicted '
'BMI and lifetime smoking were associated with about two-fold increased risks of severe '
'respiratory COVID-19 and COVID-19 hospitalization (all P\u2009<\u20090.05). Per-SD '
'increase in genetically predicted physical activity was associated with decreased risks of '
'severe respiratory COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR]\u2009=\u20090.19; 95% confidence interval '
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'genetically predicted alcohol consumption. Similar results were found across robust Mendelian '
'randomisation methods.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec><jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>Evidence is found that BMI and smoking causally increase and physical '
'activity might causally decrease the risk of COVID-19 severe illness. This study highlights '
'the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle in protecting from COVID-19 severe illness '
'and its public health value in fighting against COVID-19 pandemic.</jats:p>\n'
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{ 'value': '3 February 2021',
'order': 3,
'name': 'first_online',
'label': 'First Online',
'group': {'name': 'ArticleHistory', 'label': 'Article History'}},
{ 'value': 'Not applicable, as this study used publicly available genome-wide association '
'study summary statistics. No human participants were contacted or involved. No '
'administrative permissions were required to access the summary statistics.',
'order': 1,
'name': 'Ethics',
'group': {'name': 'EthicsHeading', 'label': 'Ethics approval and consent to participate'}},
{ 'value': 'Not applicable.',
'order': 2,
'name': 'Ethics',
'group': {'name': 'EthicsHeading', 'label': 'Consent for publication'}},
{ 'value': 'The authors declare that they have no competing interests.',
'order': 3,
'name': 'Ethics',
'group': {'name': 'EthicsHeading', 'label': 'Competing interests'}}],
'article-number': '38'}