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Modifiable lifestyle factors and severe COVID-19 risk: a Mendelian randomisation study

Li et al., BMC Medical Genomics, doi:10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1
Feb 2021  
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Severe case 81% Improvement Relative Risk Hospitalization 56% Exercise for COVID-19  Li et al.  Prophylaxis Does physical activity reduce risk for COVID-19? Retrospective study in the United Kingdom Lower severe cases with higher activity levels (p=0.02) c19early.org Li et al., BMC Medical Genomics, February 2021 Favorsexercise Favorsinactivity 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+
Exercise for COVID-19
9th treatment shown to reduce risk in October 2020, now with p < 0.00000000001 from 68 studies.
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5,100+ studies for 112 treatments. c19early.org
Mendelian randomization study showing lower risk of severe COVID-19 with physical activity.
risk of severe case, 81.0% lower, OR 0.19, p = 0.02, RR approximated with OR.
risk of hospitalization, 56.0% lower, OR 0.44, p = 0.07, RR approximated with OR.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Li et al., 3 Feb 2021, retrospective, United Kingdom, peer-reviewed, 2 authors, per SD increase. Contact: shuai.li@unimelb.edu.au (corresponding author).
This PaperExerciseAll
Modifiable lifestyle factors and severe COVID-19 risk: a Mendelian randomisation study
Shuai Li, Xinyang Hua
BMC Medical Genomics, doi:10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1
Background: Lifestyle factors including obesity and smoking are suggested to be correlated with increased risk of COVID-19 severe illness or related death. However, whether these relationships are causal is not well known; neither for the relationships between COVID-19 severe illness and other common lifestyle factors, such as physical activity and alcohol consumption. Methods: Genome-wide significant genetic variants associated with body mass index (BMI), lifetime smoking, physical activity and alcohol consumption identified by large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of up to 941,280 individuals were selected as instrumental variables. Summary statistics of the genetic variants on severe illness of COVID-19 were obtained from GWAS analyses of up to 6492 cases and 1,012,809 controls. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses were conducted. Results: Both per-standard deviation (SD) increase in genetically predicted BMI and lifetime smoking were associated with about two-fold increased risks of severe respiratory COVID-19 and COVID-19 hospitalization (all P < 0.05). Per-SD increase in genetically predicted physical activity was associated with decreased risks of severe respiratory COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05, 0.74; P = 0.02), but not with COVID-19 hospitalization (OR = 0.44; 95% CI 0.18, 1.07; P = 0.07). No evidence of association was found for genetically predicted alcohol consumption. Similar results were found across robust Mendelian randomisation methods. Conclusions: Evidence is found that BMI and smoking causally increase and physical activity might causally decrease the risk of COVID-19 severe illness. This study highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle in protecting from COVID-19 severe illness and its public health value in fighting against COVID-19 pandemic.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https ://doi. org/10.1186/s1292 0-021-00887 -1. Additional file 1: Supplementary Tables 1-4 . Summary statistics for genetic instrumental variables of the four lifestyle factors. Additional file 2: Supplementary Table 5 . Parameter values used in statistical power analysis. Additional file 3: Supplementary Table 6 . Sample sizes of participating studies in the COVID-19 Host Genetic Initiative GWAS Release 4 in September 2020. Additional file 4: Supplementary Fig. 1 . Leave-one-out analysis results for body mass index and severe respiratory COVID-19. Additional file 5: Supplementary Fig. 2 . Leave-one-out analysis results for body mass index and COVID-19 hospitalization. Additional file 6: Supplementary Fig. 3 . Leave-one-out analysis results for lifetime smoking and severe respiratory COVID-19. Additional file 7: Supplementary Fig. 4 . Leave-one-out analysis results for lifetime smoking and COVID-19 hospitalization. Additional file 8: Supplementary Fig. 5 . Leave-one-out analysis results for physical activity and severe respiratory COVID-19. Additional file 9: Supplementary Fig. 6 . Leave-one-out analysis results for physical activity and COVID-19 hospitalization. Additional file 10: Supplementary Fig. 7 . Leave-one-out analysis results for alcohol consumption and severe respiratory COVID-19 using all genetic variants. Additional file 11: Supplementary Fig. 8 . Leave-one-out..
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Genet Epidemiol. 2016;40(7):597–608.', 'journal-title': 'Genet Epidemiol'}], 'container-title': 'BMC Medical Genomics', 'original-title': [], 'language': 'en', 'link': [ { 'URL': 'http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1.pdf', 'content-type': 'application/pdf', 'content-version': 'vor', 'intended-application': 'text-mining'}, { 'URL': 'http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1/fulltext.html', 'content-type': 'text/html', 'content-version': 'vor', 'intended-application': 'text-mining'}, { 'URL': 'http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1.pdf', 'content-type': 'application/pdf', 'content-version': 'vor', 'intended-application': 'similarity-checking'}], 'deposited': { 'date-parts': [[2021, 2, 3]], 'date-time': '2021-02-03T12:10:49Z', 'timestamp': 1612354249000}, 'score': 1, 'resource': { 'primary': { 'URL': 'https://bmcmedgenomics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1'}}, 'subtitle': [], 'short-title': [], 'issued': {'date-parts': [[2021, 2, 3]]}, 'references-count': 29, 'journal-issue': {'issue': '1', 'published-print': {'date-parts': [[2021, 12]]}}, 'alternative-id': ['887'], 'URL': 'http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12920-021-00887-1', 'relation': { 'has-review': [ { 'id-type': 'doi', 'id': '10.3410/f.739501721.793583095', 'asserted-by': 'object'}]}, 'ISSN': ['1755-8794'], 'subject': ['Genetics (clinical)', 'Genetics'], 'container-title-short': 'BMC Med Genomics', 'published': {'date-parts': [[2021, 2, 3]]}, 'assertion': [ { 'value': '12 November 2020', 'order': 1, 'name': 'received', 'label': 'Received', 'group': {'name': 'ArticleHistory', 'label': 'Article History'}}, { 'value': '27 January 2021', 'order': 2, 'name': 'accepted', 'label': 'Accepted', 'group': {'name': 'ArticleHistory', 'label': 'Article History'}}, { 'value': '3 February 2021', 'order': 3, 'name': 'first_online', 'label': 'First Online', 'group': {'name': 'ArticleHistory', 'label': 'Article History'}}, { 'value': 'Not applicable, as this study used publicly available genome-wide association ' 'study summary statistics. No human participants were contacted or involved. No ' 'administrative permissions were required to access the summary statistics.', 'order': 1, 'name': 'Ethics', 'group': {'name': 'EthicsHeading', 'label': 'Ethics approval and consent to participate'}}, { 'value': 'Not applicable.', 'order': 2, 'name': 'Ethics', 'group': {'name': 'EthicsHeading', 'label': 'Consent for publication'}}, { 'value': 'The authors declare that they have no competing interests.', 'order': 3, 'name': 'Ethics', 'group': {'name': 'EthicsHeading', 'label': 'Competing interests'}}], 'article-number': '38'}
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