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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Case 58% Improvement Relative Risk Case (b) 100% c19early.org/j Jehi et al. Melatonin for COVID-19 Prophylaxis Favors melatonin Favors control
Individualizing Risk Prediction for Positive Coronavirus Disease 2019 Testing
10 Jun 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Retrospective 11,672 patients tested for COVID-19 with 818 testing positive, showing significantly lower risk with melatonin use.
risk of case, 58.0% lower, RR 0.42, p < 0.001, treatment 16 of 529 (3.0%), control 802 of 11,143 (7.2%), NNT 24, development cohort.
risk of case, 99.7% lower, RR 0.003, p = 0.09, treatment 0 of 18 (0.0%), control 290 of 2,005 (14.5%), NNT 6.9, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm), Florida validation cohort.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Jehi et al., 10 Jun 2020, retrospective, USA, peer-reviewed, 8 authors.
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