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Bias in observational studies on the effectiveness of in hospital use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19

Hempenius et al., Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, doi:10.1002/pds.5632, Apr 2023
https://c19early.org/hempenius.html
HCQ for COVID-19
1st treatment shown to reduce risk in March 2020, now with p < 0.00000000001 from 424 studies, used in 59 countries.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols combine treatments.
6,100+ studies for 180 treatments. c19early.org
Analysis of 33 observational studies for HCQ, showing wide variation in the risk of bias according to ROBINS-I assessments.
9 meta analyses show significant improvements with hydroxychloroquine for mortality1-4, hospitalization1, recovery5, combined death/hospitalization/cases6, cases7,8, and viral clearance9.
Currently there are 38 HCQ for COVID-19 early treatment studies, showing 76% lower mortality [61‑85%], 67% lower ventilation [-710‑99%], 31% lower ICU admission [1‑53%], and 41% lower hospitalization [28‑51%].
Hempenius et al., 24 Apr 2023, Netherlands, peer-reviewed, 6 authors. Contact: h.gardarsdottir@uu.nl.
Bias in observational studies on the effectiveness of in hospital use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID‐19
Mirjam Hempenius, Sophie H Bots, Rolf H H Groenwold, Anthonius De Boer, Olaf H Klungel, Helga Gardarsdottir
Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, doi:10.1002/pds.5632
Purpose: During the first waves of the coronavirus pandemic, evidence on potential effective treatments was urgently needed. Results from observational studies on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were conflicting, potentially due to biases. We aimed to assess the quality of observational studies on HCQ and its relation to effect sizes. Methods: PubMed was searched on 15 March 2021 for observational studies on the effectiveness of in-hospital use of HCQ in COVID-19 patients, published between 01/01/2020 and 01/03/2021 on. Study quality was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool. Association between study quality and study characteristics (journal ranking, publication date, and time between submission and publication) and differences between effects sizes found in observational studies compared to those found in RCTs, were assessed using Spearman's correlation. Results: Eighteen of the 33 (55%) included observational studies were scored as critical risk of bias, eleven (33%) as serious risk and only four (12%) as moderate risk of bias. Biases were most often scored as critical in the domains related to selection of participants (n = 13, 39%) and bias due to confounding (n = 8, 24%). There were no significant associations found between the study quality and the characteristics nor between the study quality and the effect estimates. Discussion: Overall, the quality of observational HCQ studies was heterogeneous. Synthesis of evidence of effectiveness of HCQ in COVID-19 should focus on RCTs and carefully consider the added value and quality of observational evidence.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT The authors declare no conflict of interest. ETHICS STATEMENT The authors state that no ethical approval was needed. SUPPORTING INFORMATION Additional supporting information can be found online in the Supporting Information section at the end of this article.
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DOI record: { "DOI": "10.1002/pds.5632", "ISSN": [ "1053-8569", "1099-1557" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pds.5632", "abstract": "<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Purpose</jats:title><jats:p>During the first waves of the coronavirus pandemic, evidence on potential effective treatments was urgently needed. Results from observational studies on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were conflicting, potentially due to biases. We aimed to assess the quality of observational studies on HCQ and its relation to effect sizes.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>PubMed was searched on 15 March 2021 for observational studies on the effectiveness of in‐hospital use of HCQ in COVID‐19 patients, published between 01/01/2020 and 01/03/2021 on. Study quality was assessed using the ROBINS‐I tool. Association between study quality and study characteristics (journal ranking, publication date, and time between submission and publication) and differences between effects sizes found in observational studies compared to those found in RCTs, were assessed using Spearman's correlation.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Eighteen of the 33 (55%) included observational studies were scored as critical risk of bias, eleven (33%) as serious risk and only four (12%) as moderate risk of bias. Biases were most often scored as critical in the domains related to selection of participants (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 13, 39%) and bias due to confounding (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 8, 24%). There were no significant associations found between the study quality and the characteristics nor between the study quality and the effect estimates.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Discussion</jats:title><jats:p>Overall, the quality of observational HCQ studies was heterogeneous. 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