Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? evidence from cell-phone data
Elise N Grover, Andrea G Buchwald, Debashis Ghosh, Elizabeth J Carlton
PLOS ONE, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0305323
There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4 th 2020 and January 31 st 2021. We also evaluated the evidence for seasonal effect modification by comparing the results of all-season (using season as a covariate) to season-stratified models. Four weather conditions were associated with both time spent indoors away-from-home and 12-day lagged COVID-19 hospital admissions in one or more season: high minimum temperature (all-season), low maximum temperature (spring), low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). In our mediation analyses, we found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, as well as other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
Supporting information
S1 Table. Detailed regression results between control variables and categorical weather variables on time indoors away-from-home, and 12-day lagged hospitalizations. (DOCX)
S2 Table. Sensitivity analysis results of the linear regression results using categorical weather conditions on time at home and COVID hospitalizations. (DOCX)
S3 Table. Sensitivity analysis detailing mediation results of categorical weather conditions and time at home as the mediator. (DOCX)
S4 Table. Sensitivity analysis detailing linear regression results for continuous weather conditions on time indoors and away-from-home and COVID hospitalizations. (DOCX)
S5 Table. Sensitivity analysis results for the mediation models using continuous weather variables and time indoors away-from-home as the mediator. (DOCX)
S6 Table. Sensitivity analysis detailing linear regression results of continuous weather conditions on time at home, and on hospitalizations. (DOCX)
S7 Table. Sensitivity analysis detailing mediation results assessing time at home as a mediator between continuous weather conditions and COVID hospital admissions. (DOCX)
S8 Table. Sensitivity analysis detailing mediation results without hospitalization growth, using categorical weather conditions and time indoors away from home as the mediator. (DOCX)
S9 Table. Sensitivity analysis detailing mediation results without hospitalization growth, using categorical weather conditions and time at home as the mediator...
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'abstract': '<jats:p>There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains '
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'indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in '
'confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that '
'hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine '
'daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building '
'footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, '
'mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on '
'COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors '
'away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March '
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'low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). '
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'admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via '
'indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do '
'not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in '
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