Higher Scores of Ambient Temperature, Sunshine Hours and UV Index are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality
Mourad Errasfa
The Open COVID Journal, doi:10.2174/26669587-v2-e221209-2022-24
Background: Following two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, thousands of deaths were registered around the world. A question on whether climate parameters in each country could or not affect coronavirus incidence and COVID-19 death toll is under debate.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST The author declares no conflict of interest, financial or otherwise.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS Declared none.
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'abstract': '<jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Background:</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>Following two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, thousands of deaths '
'were registered around the world. A question on whether climate parameters in each country '
'could or not affect coronavirus incidence and COVID-19 death toll is under debate.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Objective:</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>In this work, we aimed to analyse possible relation between the '
'prevalence of COVID-19 deaths and the geographic latitude. The study focused on the '
'geographic latitudes and some of their associated climate factors, such as the average annual '
'level of temperature, sunshine hours and UV index.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Methods:</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>We sought the number of the deaths caused by COVID-19 in 39 '
'countries. Latitude levels were plotted against the average annual levels of either '
'temperature, sunshine hours or UV index. Data were analysed by simple linear regression or '
'polynomial regression, by means of Microsoft Excel software (2016).</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Results:</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>When COVID-19 death numbers were plotted against geographic '
'latitudes, we obtained inverted bell-shaped curves, for both the first and second year of the '
'pandemic, with a coefficient of determination of (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0,32) and '
'(R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0,39), respectively. In addition, COVID-19 death numbers were very '
'negatively correlated with the average annual levels of temperature (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> '
'= 0,52, P= 4.92x10<jats:sup>-7</jats:sup>), sunshine hours (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0,36, '
'P= 7.68x10<jats:sup>-6</jats:sup>) and UV index (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0,38, P= '
'4.16x10<jats:sup>-5</jats:sup>). Bell-shaped curves were obtained when latitude was plotted '
'against the average annual number of temperature, sunshine hours and UV index, with a '
'coefficient of determination of (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0,85), (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = '
'0,452) and (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0,87), respectively.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:sec>\n'
' <jats:title>Conclusion:</jats:title>\n'
' <jats:p>In contrast to high-latitude countries, countries located at low '
'latitudes may have suffered less COVID-19 death tolls, thanks to their elevated temperature, '
'sunshine hours and UV index. The above climate factors, in addition to yet unknown factors, '
'could have impaired the spread of the coronavirus and/or helped individual’s natural immunity '
'to fight COVID-19 disease.</jats:p>\n'
' </jats:sec>',
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