Higher Scores of Ambient Temperature, Sunshine Hours and UV Index are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality
Analysis of COVID-19 deaths in 39 countries, showing mortality negatively correlated with sunshine hours.
Errasfa et al., 30 Dec 2022, Morocco, peer-reviewed, 1 author.
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The Open COVID Journal
Content list available at: https://opencovidjournal.com
Higher Scores of Ambient Temperature, Sunshine Hours and UV Index are
Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality
Department of Pharmacology, Laboratory of Epidemiology and Research in Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, Sidi
Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco
Following two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, thousands of deaths were registered around the world. A question on whether climate parameters
in each country could or not affect coronavirus incidence and COVID-19 death toll is under debate.
In this work, we aimed to analyse possible relation between the prevalence of COVID-19 deaths and the geographic latitude. The study focused on
the geographic latitudes and some of their associated climate factors, such as the average annual level of temperature, sunshine hours and UV
We sought the number of the deaths caused by COVID-19 in 39 countries. Latitude levels were plotted against the average annual levels of either
temperature, sunshine hours or UV index. Data were analysed by simple linear regression or polynomial regression, by means of Microsoft Excel
When COVID-19 death numbers were plotted against geographic latitudes, we obtained inverted bell-shaped curves, for both the first and second
year of the pandemic, with a coefficient of determination of (R2 = 0,32) and (R2 = 0,39), respectively. In addition, COVID-19 death numbers were
very negatively correlated with the average annual levels of temperature (R2 = 0,52, P= 4.92x10-7), sunshine hours (R2 = 0,36, P= 7.68x10-6) and
UV index (R2 = 0,38, P= 4.16x10-5). Bell-shaped curves were obtained when latitude was plotted against the average annual number of
temperature, sunshine hours and UV index, with a coefficient of determination of (R2 = 0,85), (R2 = 0,452) and (R2 = 0,87), respectively.
In contrast to high-latitude countries, countries located at low latitudes may have suffered less COVID-19 death tolls, thanks to their elevated
temperature, sunshine hours and UV index. The above climate factors, in addition to yet unknown factors, could have impaired the spread of the
coronavirus and/or helped individual’s natural immunity to fight COVID-19 disease.
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, Climate factors, Temperature, Sunshine hours, UV index.
Received: May 19, 2022
Revised: September 15, 2022
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