Effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 disease: A done and dusted situation?

D'Arminio Monforte et al., International Journal of Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.056, Jul 2020
Mortality 34% improvement lower risk ← → higher risk HCQ+AZ 56% HCQ  D'Arminio Monforte et al.  LATE TREATMENT Is late treatment with HCQ beneficial for COVID-19? Retrospective 539 patients in Italy Lower mortality with HCQ (not stat. sig., p=0.12) c19early.org D'Arminio Monforte et al., Int. J. Inf.., Jul 2020 0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ RR
HCQ for COVID-19
1st treatment shown to reduce risk in March 2020, now with p < 0.00000000001 from 424 studies, used in 59 countries.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols combine treatments.
6,200+ studies for 200+ treatments. c19early.org
Retrospective 539 COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Milan, with treatment a median of 1 day after admission, showing lower mortality with HCQ and with HCQ+AZ, with statistical significance only for HCQ+AZ.
risk of death, 34.0% lower, HR 0.66, p = 0.12, treatment 53 of 197 (26.9%), control 47 of 92 (51.1%), NNT 4.1, adjusted per study.
HCQ+AZ, 56.0% lower, HR 0.44, p = 0.009, treatment 22 of 94 (23.4%), control 47 of 92 (51.1%), NNT 3.6, adjusted per study.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
D'Arminio Monforte et al., 29 Jul 2020, retrospective, Italy, peer-reviewed, 5 authors.
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19 treatment protocols c19early.org November 2025 Italy United Kingdom Russia USA Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Vietnam Peru Philippines China Uzbekistan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Bosnia-Herzegovina Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore Iceland New Zealand Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago Hong Kong North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia CAR Italy favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy of treatments was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment, andforgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
$0 $500 $1,000+ Efficacy vs. cost for COVID-19treatment protocols worldwide c19early.org November 2025 Italy United Kingdom Russia USA Sudan Angola Colombia Kenya Mozambique Vietnam Peru Philippines China Uzbekistan Nepal Ethiopia Iran Ghana Mexico South Korea Germany Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Algeria Morocco Yemen Poland India DR Congo Madagascar Thailand Uganda Venezuela Nigeria Egypt Bolivia Taiwan Zambia Fiji Bosnia-Herzegovina Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Eritrea Bulgaria Greece Slovakia Singapore New Zealand Malawi Czechia Mongolia Israel Trinidad and Tobago North Macedonia Belarus Qatar Panama Serbia Syria Italy favored high-profit treatments.The average efficacy was very low.High-cost protocols reduce early treatment,and forgo complementary/synergistic benefits. More effective More expensive 75% 50% 25% ≤0%
Effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 disease: A done and dusted deal?
Antonella D’arminio Monforte, Alessandro Tavelli, Francesca Bai, Giulia Marchetti, Alessandro Cozzi-Lepri
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.056
A total of 539 COVID-19 hospitalized patients were included in our cohort in Milan, from February 24 to May 17, 2020, of whom 174 died in hospital (day 14 probability of death: 29.5% -95%CI: 25.5-34.0). We divided a subset of our cohort into three groups who started treatment a median of 1 day after admission: those receiving hydroxychloroquine alone (N = 197), those receiving hydroxycholoroquine + azithromycin (N = 94), and those receiving neither (controls) (N = 92). Of the latter group, ten started HIV antivirals (boosted-lopinavir or -darunavir), one teicoplanin, twelve immunomodulatory drugs, or corticosteroids, 23 heparin and 46 remained untreated. The percent of death in the three groups was 27%, 23%, and 51%. Mechanical ventilation was used in 4.3% of hydroxychloroquine, 14.2% of hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin, and 26.1% of controls. Unweighted and weighted relative hazards of mortality are shown in Table 1 . After adjusting * Adjusted for age, gender, number of comorbidities, CVD (yes/no), duration of symptoms, date of admission, CRP and censoring using IPW. £ The overall estimate was also adjusted for baseline COVID-19 disease severity. # Heparin, immuno-modulatory drugs, HIV antivirals, combinations of these or no drugs at all. & 45 patients missing baseline PO2/FiO2 not included in the stratified analysis.
Declarations of interest None declared. Ethical approval This analysis is part of the study approved by Ethic Committee Area 1, Milan Italy (2020/ST/049 and 2020/ST/049_BIS, 11/03/ 2020).
References
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Tang, Cao, Han, Wang, Chen et al., Hydroxychloroquine in patients mainly with mild to moderate COVID-19: an open-label, randomised, controlled trial, BMJ, doi:10.1136/bmj.m1849
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Late treatment
is less effective
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