Safety and efficacy of different therapeutic regimens in Egyptian adults with moderate COVID-19 infection (EVEREST): a real-world retrospective study
et al., Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-025-23660-1, Oct 2025
HCQ for COVID-19
1st treatment shown to reduce risk in
March 2020, now with p < 0.00000000001 from 423 studies, used in 59 countries.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols
combine treatments.
6,500+ studies for
210+ treatments. c19early.org
|
Retrospective 310 hospitalized moderate COVID-19 patients showing shorter hospitalization and fewer progressive CT chest changes with antiviral combinations sofosbuvir/daclatasvir plus ivermectin, sofosbuvir/ledipasvir plus hydroxychloroquine, and SOF/LED plus ivermectin.
This study has several major issues:
Confounding by time: the retrospective study spans December 2020 to December 2022, a period covering major changes in variants and SOC, and authors perform no adjustments for time. In general, risk was higher for the wildtype virus, and SOC improved later in the pandemic.
Unrealistic zero-variance in continuous laboratory parameters: in Table 2, arm 3 (n=75) shows continuous lab measures with zero variance. For example, the second measure of ferritin is reported as a median of 770 with an IQR of (770, 770). The third measure of ferritin is also 770 (770, 770). CRP for the third measure is 162 (162, 162). It is not realistic for a diverse cohort of 75 patients to all share the exact same continuous laboratory value.
Impossible demographic totals in Table 1: the gender breakdown counts do not sum to the total sample sizes reported for the respective arms. In arm 1 (N=98), females (17) and males (79) sum to 96, leaving 2 patients unaccounted for. In arm 2 (N=64), females (12) and males (45) sum to 57, leaving 7 patients unaccounted for with no footnote explaining the missing data.
Contradictory efficacy conclusions regarding viral clearance: authors claim that the antiviral regimens demonstrated favorable efficacy. However, Table 4 shows that arms 2 and 3 had significantly decreased odds of achieving two consecutive negative PCR tests compared to the standard of care. Reduced odds of a negative PCR indicates worse viral clearance, contradicting the narrative.
Zero total clinical recovery in specific arms: Table 1 reports that 0 patients in arm 1 (n=98) and arm 3 (n=75) achieved 'total clinical recovery', despite the median days to clinical improvement being 5 days. For a cohort of moderate COVID-19 patients, a 0% recovery rate is unusual and does not match other recovery metrics. Total clinical recovery was defined as "complete regression of symptoms and persistent symptoms of lower intensity" which appears contradictory, combining complete regression and persistent but milder symptoms.
Extreme baseline imbalances: the treatment arms exhibit very large baseline demographic differences. For example, arm 4 is 93.2% male with a median age of 29, compared to arm 1 which is ~80% male with a median age of 36. These imbalances suggest substantial selection bias that statistical adjustment cannot fully mitigate.
Study covers HCQ and ivermectin.
Abdel-Salam Elgohary et al., 20 Oct 2025, retrospective, Egypt, peer-reviewed, 11 authors, study period December 2020 - December 2022.
Contact: masg690@gmail.com, xo@ecrrm.ac.eg.
Safety and efficacy of different therapeutic regimens in Egyptian adults with moderate COVID-19 infection (EVEREST): a real-world retrospective study
Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-025-23660-1
This study seeks to disseminate insights from Egypt's management of COVID-19 patients by evaluating the effectiveness and safety of various treatment regimens using combined repurposed antivirals. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 310 moderate hospitalized COVID-19 cases. Patients were divided into four treatment arms: standard care, sofosbuvir/daclatasvir (sovodak) plus ivermectin, sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LED) plus hydroxychloroquine, and SOF/LED plus ivermectin. The study analyzed parameters such as hospitalization days, total clinical recovery percentage, and progressive CT chest changes. The median hospitalization days significantly differed in arm 1 versus arms 2 and 3 (p < 0.001 and p = 0.025, respectively). There was a difference between arms 1 and 4 in the days till clinical improvement (p = 0.007). Complete normalization of vital signs occurred in 26% of arm 4 patients versus 43% in arm 1 (p = 0.023), and a statistically significant difference in the proportion of patients with total clinical recovery was found between arms 1 and 2 (p = 0.009). All arms displayed a statistically significant lower proportion of patients with progressive CT scans compared to arm 1. Our study reveals that most tested antiviral combinations effectively reduced hospitalization days and progressive CT scans. These regimens demonstrated efficacy in treating moderate COVID-19 to prevent disease progression and complications.
Author contributions M.A.E., A.A., and M.E.M. wrote the main manuscript.M.A.E., M.E.M., and M.G.S. were responsible for data collection. As for N.H., M.R., and N.T., they were responsible for statistical analysis. Furthermore, M.A.E., R.Z.A., and M.G.S. performed laboratory work.Finally, M.A.E., M.T.E., M.M.E., and M.Z.A. were responsible for reporting results and patients' follow-up.All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics approval The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, and approved by the ethical committee office of the Medical Military Academy.
Consent to participate Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.
Additional information
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at h t t p s : / / d o i . o r g / 1 0 . 1 0 3 8 / s 4 1 5 9 8 -0 2 5 -2 3 6 6 0 -1 . Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to M.A.-S. Reprints and permissions information is available at www.nature.com/reprints . Publisher's note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
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