Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Netherlands, 2020-2022: statistical evidence for an inverse association with solar radiation and temperature
Don Klinkenberg, Jantien Backer, Chantal Reusken, Jacco Wallinga
doi:10.1101/2024.11.28.24318154
In temperate regions, respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are better transmitted in winter than in summer. Understanding how the weather is associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility can enhance projections of COVID-19 incidence and improve estimation of the effectiveness of control measures. During the pandemic, transmissibility was tracked by the reproduction number R t . This study aims to determine whether information about the daily temperature, absolute humidity, and solar radiation improves predictions of R t in the Netherlands from 2020 to 2022, and to quantify the relationship between R t and daily weather data. We conducted a regression analysis, accounting for immunity from vaccination and previous infection, higher transmissibility of new variants, and changes in contact behaviour due to control measures. Results show a linear association between logR t and daily solar radiation and temperature, indicating a ratio of R t in Winter versus Summer of 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4-2.1). The possibility that this association arises from unrelated seasonal patterns was dismissed, as weather data from earlier years provided poorer fits with only small effect sizes. This suggests a causal relationship of solar radiation and temperature with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, enhancing confidence in using this relationship for short-term predictions and other epidemiological analyses.
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