Effects of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia

{ 'indexed': { 'date-parts': [[2022, 11, 17]], 'date-time': '2022-11-17T06:04:13Z', 'timestamp': 1668665053031}, 'reference-count': 40, 'publisher': 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC', 'issue': '1', 'license': [ { 'start': { 'date-parts': [[2022, 11, 16]], 'date-time': '2022-11-16T00:00:00Z', 'timestamp': 1668556800000}, 'content-version': 'tdm', 'delay-in-days': 0, 'URL': 'https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0'}, { 'start': { 'date-parts': [[2022, 11, 16]], 'date-time': '2022-11-16T00:00:00Z', 'timestamp': 1668556800000}, 'content-version': 'vor', 'delay-in-days': 0, 'URL': 'https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0'}], 'funder': [ { 'DOI': '10.13039/501100000925', 'name': 'National Health and Medical Research Council', 'doi-asserted-by': 'publisher', 'award': ['APP1196549']}], 'content-domain': {'domain': ['link.springer.com'], 'crossmark-restriction': False}, 'abstract': '<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Climatic conditions play a key role in the ' 'transmission and pathophysiology of respiratory tract infections, either directly or ' 'indirectly. However, their impact on the COVID-19 pandemic propagation is yet to be studied. ' 'This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, ' 'relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed on the number of daily COVID-19 cases in ' 'Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained from the National Data ' 'Management Center at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute for the period 10th March 2020 to ' '31st October 2021. Data for climatic factors were obtained from the Ethiopia National ' 'Meteorology Agency. The correlation between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and climatic ' 'factors was measured using the Spearman rank correlation test. The log-link negative binomial ' 'regression model was used to fit the effect of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission, ' 'from lag 0 to lag 14\xa0days. During the study period, a total of 245,101 COVID-19 cases were ' 'recorded in Addis Ababa, with a median of 337 new cases per day and a maximum of 1903 ' 'instances per day. A significant correlation between COVID-19 cases and humidity was observed ' 'with a 1% increase in relative humidity associated with a 1.1% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.989, 95% ' '(0.97–0.99)] and 1.2% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.988, (0.97–0.99)] decrease in COVID-19 cases for 4 and ' '5 lag days prior to detection, respectively. The highest increase in the effect of wind speed ' 'and rainfall on COVID-19 was observed at 14 lag days prior to detection with IRRs of 1.85 ' '(95%CI 1.26–2.74) and 1.078 (95%CI 1.04–1.12), respectively. The lowest IRR was 1.109 (95%CI ' '0.93–1.31) and 1.007 (95%CI 0.99–1.02) both in lag 0, respectively. The findings revealed ' 'that none of the climatic variables influenced the number of COVID-19 cases on the day of ' 'case detection (lag 0), and that daily average temperature and sunshine duration were not ' 'significantly linked with COVID-19 risk across the full lag period ' '(<jats:italic>p</jats:italic>\u2009&gt;\u20090.05). Climatic factors such as humidity, ' 'rainfall, and wind speed influence the transmission of COVID-19 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. ' 'COVID-19 cases have shown seasonal variations with the highest number of cases reported ' 'during the rainy season and the lowest number of cases reported during the dry season. These ' 'findings suggest the need to design strategies for the prevention and control of COVID-19 ' 'before the rainy seasons.</jats:p>', 'DOI': '10.1038/s41598-022-24024-9', 'type': 'journal-article', 'created': { 'date-parts': [[2022, 11, 16]], 'date-time': '2022-11-16T18:02:44Z', 'timestamp': 1668621764000}, 'update-policy': 'http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/springer_crossmark_policy', 'source': 'Crossref', 'is-referenced-by-count': 0, 'title': 'Effects of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia', 'prefix': '10.1038', 'volume': '12', 'author': [ {'given': 'Fitsum Bekele', 'family': 'Endeshaw', 'sequence': 'first', 'affiliation': []}, {'given': 'Fentabil', 'family': 'Getnet', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': []}, {'given': 'Awoke Misganaw', 'family': 'Temesgen', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': []}, {'given': 'Alemnesh H.', 'family': 'Mirkuzie', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': []}, {'given': 'Latera Tesfaye', 'family': 'Olana', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': []}, {'given': 'Kefyalew Addis', 'family': 'Alene', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': []}, {'given': 'Solomon Kibret', 'family': 'Birhanie', 'sequence': 'additional', 'affiliation': []}], 'member': '297', 'published-online': {'date-parts': [[2022, 11, 16]]}, 'reference': [ { 'key': '24024_CR1', 'doi-asserted-by': 'publisher', 'first-page': '776', 'DOI': '10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30244-9', 'volume': '20', 'author': 'DD Rajgor', 'year': '2020', 'unstructured': 'Rajgor, D. 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