Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection Severity in Abu Dhabi
Latifa Mohammad, Baynouna Alketbi, Nico Nagelkerke, Hanan Abdelbaqi, Fatima Alblooshi, Mariam Alsaedi, Shamsa Almansoori, Ruqaya Alnuaimi, Amal Alkhoori, Aysha Alaryani, Mariam Alshamsi, Fatima Kayani, Noura Alblooshi, Shamma Alkhajeh, Jehan Alfalahi, Sumaya Alameri, Saeed Aldhahei
doi:10.1007/s44197-021-00006-4
Background Prediction models are essential for informing screening, assessing prognosis, and examining options for treatment. This study aimed to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection severity in the Abu Dhabi population. Methods This is a mixed retrospective cohort study and case-control study to explore the associated factors of receiving treatment in the community, being hospitalized, or requiring complex hospital care among patients with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. Of 641 patients included, 266 were hospitalized; 135 were hospitalized and either died or required complex care, i.e., required ICU admission, intubation, or oxygen and 131 did not develop severe disease requiring complex care. The third group ("controls") were 375 patients who were not hospitalized. Logistic regression analyses were used to study predictors of disease severity. Results Among hospitalized patients older age and low oxygen saturation at admission were the consistent and strongest predictors of an adverse outcome. Risk factors for the death in addition to age and low oxygen saturation were elevated white blood count and low reported physical activity. Chronic kidney disease and diabetes were also associated with more severe disease in logistic regression. The mortality rate among those with less than 30 min per week of physical activity was 4.9%, while the mortality rate was 0.35% for those with physical activity > 30 min at least once a week. The interval from the onset of symptoms to admission and mortality was found to have a significant inverse relationship, with worse survival for shorter intervals. Conclusion Oxygen saturation is an important measure that should be introduced at screening sites and used in the risk assessment of patients with SARS-CoV-2. In addition, an older age was a consistent factor in all adverse outcomes, and other factors, such as low physical activity, elevated WBC, CKD, and DM, were also identified as risk factors.
Authors contributions All authors approved the manuscript. LBK conceptualization data analysis and writing the manuscript, NN review of data analysis and manuscript. HAB, FAB, MAS, SAM, RAN, AAK, AAA, MAS, FK, NAB, SAK, JAF, participated in data collection, SAD data management, and manuscript review.
Conflict of interest None.
Ethics approval and consent to participate This study was approved by the Abu Dhabi COVID19 Research IRB Committee, DOH/ CVDC/2020/833. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants which was at the start of the electronic survey. Consent for publication Abu Dhabi Health COVID19 Research Ethics Committee consented to publish this study. All authors consented to publish.
Availability of data and materials Available on request based on the Abu Dhabi Health COVID19 Research Ethics Committee approval. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by..
References
Conca, Alabdely, Albaiz, Serum β2-microglobulin levels in Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19): another prognosticator of disease severity, PLoS One
Drager, Pio-Abreu, Lopes, Bortolotto, Is hypertension a real risk factor for poor prognosis in the COVID-19 pandemic, Curr Hypertens Rep
Dubaihealth, Guidelines for Healthcare Professionals Managing Covid-19
Falasi, Khan, The impact of COVID-19 on Abu Dhabi and its primary care response, Aust J Gen Pract
Gebhard, Regitz-Zagrosek, Neuhauser, Morgan, Klein, Impact of sex and gender on COVID-19 outcomes in Europe, Biol Sex Differ
Knight, Ho, Pius, Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO clinical characterisation protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score, BMJ
Leung, Risk factors for predicting mortality in elderly patients with COVID-19: a review of clinical data in China, Mech Ageing Dev
Proença, Lopes, Kitamura, Prado, Kuriki et al., Machine learning model for predicting severity prognosis in patients infected with COVID-19: Study protocol from COVID-AI Brasil, PLoS One
Rod, Oviedo-Trespalacios, Cortes-Ramirez, A briefreview of the risk factors for covid-19 severity, Rev Saude Publica
Singh, Khunti, Assessment of risk, severity, mortality, glycemic control and antidiabetic agents in patients with diabetes and COVID-19: a narrative review, Diabetes Res Clin Pract
Sperrin, Mcmillan, Prediction models for covid-19 outcomes, BMJ
Van Smeden, Moons, De Groot, Sample size for binary logistic prediction models: beyond events per variable criteria, Stat Methods Med Res
Wolff, Nee, Hickey, Marschollek, Risk factors for Covid-19 severity and fatality: a structured literature review, Infection
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"abstract": "<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Background</jats:title>\n <jats:p>Prediction models are essential for informing screening, assessing prognosis, and examining options for treatment. This study aimed to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection severity in the Abu Dhabi population.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec><jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Methods</jats:title>\n <jats:p>This is a mixed retrospective cohort study and case–control study to explore the associated factors of receiving treatment in the community, being hospitalized, or requiring complex hospital care among patients with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. Of 641 patients included, 266 were hospitalized; 135 were hospitalized and either died or required complex care, i.e., required ICU admission, intubation, or oxygen and 131 did not develop severe disease requiring complex care. The third group (“controls”) were 375 patients who were not hospitalized. Logistic regression analyses were used to study predictors of disease severity.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec><jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Results</jats:title>\n <jats:p>Among hospitalized patients older age and low oxygen saturation at admission were the consistent and strongest predictors of an adverse outcome. Risk factors for the death in addition to age and low oxygen saturation were elevated white blood count and low reported physical activity. Chronic kidney disease and diabetes were also associated with more severe disease in logistic regression. The mortality rate among those with less than 30 min per week of physical activity was 4.9%, while the mortality rate was 0.35% for those with physical activity > 30 min at least once a week. The interval from the onset of symptoms to admission and mortality was found to have a significant inverse relationship, with worse survival for shorter intervals.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec><jats:sec>\n <jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title>\n <jats:p>Oxygen saturation is an important measure that should be introduced at screening sites and used in the risk assessment of patients with SARS-CoV-2. In addition, an older age was a consistent factor in all adverse outcomes, and other factors, such as low physical activity, elevated WBC, CKD, and DM, were also identified as risk factors.</jats:p>\n </jats:sec>",
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