Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran
et al., Science of The Total Environment,
Analysis of COVID-19 in Iran, showing cases inversely related to solar radiation, without statistical significance.
Ahmadi et al., 17 Apr 2020, Iran, peer-reviewed, 5 authors.
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Abstract: Science of the Total Environment 729 (2020) 138705
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Science of the Total Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv
Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak
Mohsen Ahmadi a, Abbas Shariﬁ b,⁎, Shadi Dorosti a, Saeid Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi a, Negar Ghanbari c
Department of Industrial Engineering, Urmia University of Technology (UUT), P.O. Box: 57166-419, Urmia, Iran
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Urmia University of Technology (UUT), P.O. Box: 57166-419, Urmia, Iran
Faculty of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Science, P.O. Box: 51666-16471, Tabriz, Iran
H I G H L I G H T S
G R A P H I C A L
A B S T R A C T
• Geographical and Climatological parameter is assessed to study COVID-19 outbreak.
• Population density, intra-provincial
movement have a direct relationship
with the infection rate.
• Humidity has a reverse relationship
within the virus outbreak speed.
• The outbreak at low speed of the wind is
• Solar radiation threats the virus's
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Received 6 April 2020
Received in revised form 13 April 2020
Accepted 13 April 2020
Available online 17 April 2020
Editor: Jianmin Chen
a b s t r a c t
SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are conﬁrmed throughout the world and millions of people are being
put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a
logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the
study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefﬁcient (PCC) and Sobol’-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables
with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intraprovincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values
of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival.
The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of
high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern
© 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.
⁎ Corresponding author at: 5716693188.
E-mail addresses: Mohsen.Ahmadi@ine.uut.ac.ir (M. Ahmadi), Abbas.Shariﬁ@mee.uut.ac.ir (A. Shariﬁ), Shadi.Dorosti@gmail.com (S. Dorosti), S.Jafarzadeh@uut.ac.ir
(S. Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi), Negaringhanbari@gmail.com (N. Ghanbari).
0048-9697/© 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.
M. Ahmadi et al. / Science of the Total Environment 729 (2020) 138705
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