Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran
Mohsen Ahmadi, Abbas Sharifi, Shadi Dorosti, Saeid Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, Negar Ghanbari
Science of The Total Environment, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138705
2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol'-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intraprovincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces.
CRediT authorship contribution statement Mohsen Ahmadi: Formal analysis, Writing -review & editing. Abbas Sharifi: Data curation, Methodology, Conceptualization, Software, Writing -review & editing. Shadi Dorosti: Writing -original draft. Saeid Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi: Supervision, Project administration, Investigation. Negar Ghanbari: Validation, Writing -review & editing.
Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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