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The effect of weather data on the spread of COVID-19 in Jordan

Abdelhafez et al., Environmental Science and Pollution Research, doi:10.1007/s11356-020-12338-y
Jan 2021  
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Analysis of COVID-19 and weather data in Jordan, showing solar radiation negatively correlated with COVID-19 cases.
Abdelhafez et al., 9 Jan 2021, Jordan, peer-reviewed, 3 authors, study period 15 March, 2020 - 31 August, 2020.
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The effect of weather data on the spread of COVID-19 in Jordan
Eman Abdelhafez, Loai Dabbour, Mohammad Hamdan
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, doi:10.1007/s11356-020-12338-y
This study aims to analyze the correlation between the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jordan and metrological parameters including the average daily temperature (°C), maximum ambient temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), pressure (kPa), and average daily solar radiation (W/m 2 ). This covers the first and the second waves in Jordan. The data were obtained from both the Jordanian Ministry of health and the Jordan Metrological Department. In this work, the Spearman correlation test was used for data analysis, since the normality assumption was not fulfilled. It was found that the most effective weather parameters on the active cases of COVID-19 in the initial wave transmission was the average daily solar radiation (r = -0.503; p = 0.000), while all other tests for other parameters failed. In the second wave of COVID-19 transmission, it was found that the most effective weather parameter on the active cases of COVID-19 was the maximum temperature (r = 0.394; p = 0.028). This was followed by wind speed (r = 0.477; p = 0.007), pressure (r = -0.429; p = 0.016), and average daily solar radiation (r = -0.757; p = 0.000). Furthermore, the independent variable importance of multilayer perceptron showed that wind speed has a direct relationship with active cases. Conversely, areas characterized by low values of pressure and daily solar radiation exposure have a high rate of infection. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis using Sobol analysis showed that daily solar radiation has a high rate of active cases that support the virus' survival in both wave transmissions.
Author contributions Conceptualization: Eman AbdelhafezMethodology: Eman AbdelhafezFormal analysis and investigation: Loai DabbourWriting -original draft preparation: Eman Abdelhafez, Loai Dabbour, and Mohammad HamdanWriting -review and editing: Mohammad Hamdan and Loai Dabbour Data availability The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Compliance with ethical standards Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Ethical approval Not applicable. Consent to participate Not applicable. Consent to publish Not applicable. Publisher's note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
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