Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor

DOI record: { "DOI": "10.1038/s41598-021-81419-w", "ISSN": [ "2045-2322" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81419-w", "abstract": "<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>To determine the factor triggering the sudden surge of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020. The dates of the surge were determined using a fitting of the two last months of reported daily new cases in 18 European countries with latitude ranging from 39° to 62°. The study proves no correlation between the country surge date and the 2 weeks preceding temperature or humidity but shows an impressive linear correlation with latitude. The country surge date corresponds to the time when its sun UV daily dose drops below ≈ 34% of that of 0° latitude. Introducing reported seasonal blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration variation into the reported link between acute respiratory tract infection risk and 25(OH)D concentration quantitatively explains the surge dynamics. Several studies have already substantiated a 25(OH)D concentration impact on COVID-19 severity. However, by comparing different patient populations, discriminating whether a low 25(OH)D concentration is a real factor underlying COVID-19 severity or only a marker of another weakness that is the primary severity factor can be challenging. The date of the surge is an intrapopulation observation and has the benefit of being triggered only by a parameter globally affecting the population, i.e. decreases in the sun UV daily dose. The results indicate that a low 25(OH)D concentration is a contributing factor to COVID-19 severity, which, combined with previous studies, provides a convincing set of evidence.</jats:p>", "alternative-id": [ "81419" ], "article-number": "1981", "assertion": [ { "group": { "label": "Article History", "name": "ArticleHistory" }, "label": "Received", "name": "received", "order": 1, "value": "10 November 2020" }, { "group": { "label": "Article History", "name": "ArticleHistory" }, "label": "Accepted", "name": "accepted", "order": 2, "value": "5 January 2021" }, { "group": { "label": "Article History", "name": "ArticleHistory" }, "label": "First Online", "name": "first_online", "order": 3, "value": "21 January 2021" }, { "group": { "label": "Competing interests", "name": "EthicsHeading" }, "name": "Ethics", "order": 1, "value": "The author declares no competing interests." } ], "author": [ { "affiliation": [], "family": "Walrand", "given": "Stephan", "sequence": "first" } ], "container-title": "Scientific Reports", "container-title-short": "Sci Rep", "content-domain": { "crossmark-restriction": false, "domain": [ "link.springer.com" ] }, "created": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 1, 21 ] ], "date-time": "2021-01-21T11:03:39Z", "timestamp": 1611227019000 }, "deposited": { "date-parts": [ [ 2023, 10, 18 ] ], "date-time": "2023-10-18T14:32:36Z", "timestamp": 1697639556000 }, "indexed": { "date-parts": [ [ 2024, 4, 22 ] ], "date-time": "2024-04-22T17:58:07Z", "timestamp": 1713808687744 }, "is-referenced-by-count": 38, "issue": "1", "issued": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 1, 21 ] ] }, "journal-issue": { "issue": "1", "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 12 ] ] } }, "language": "en", "license": [ { "URL": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0", "content-version": "tdm", "delay-in-days": 0, "start": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 1, 21 ] ], "date-time": "2021-01-21T00:00:00Z", "timestamp": 1611187200000 } }, { "URL": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0", "content-version": "vor", "delay-in-days": 0, "start": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 1, 21 ] ], "date-time": "2021-01-21T00:00:00Z", "timestamp": 1611187200000 } } ], "link": [ { "URL": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w.pdf", "content-type": "application/pdf", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "text-mining" }, { "URL": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w", "content-type": "text/html", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "text-mining" }, { "URL": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w.pdf", "content-type": "application/pdf", "content-version": "vor", "intended-application": "similarity-checking" } ], "member": "297", "original-title": [], "prefix": "10.1038", "published": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 1, 21 ] ] }, "published-online": { "date-parts": [ [ 2021, 1, 21 ] ] }, "publisher": "Springer Science and Business Media LLC", "reference": [ { "DOI": "10.4161/derm.22941", "author": "M Grigalavicius", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "150", "journal-title": "Dermato-endocrinology.", "key": "81419_CR1", "unstructured": "Grigalavicius, M., Juzeniene, A., Baturaite, Z., Dahlback, A. & Moan, J. Biologically efficient solar radiation: Vitamin D production and induction of cutaneous malignant melanoma. Dermato-endocrinology. 5, 150–158 (2013).", "volume": "5", "year": "2013" }, { "author": "J Herman", "first-page": "1", "journal-title": "Air Qual. Atmos. Health.", "key": "81419_CR2", "unstructured": "Herman, J., Biegel, B. & Huang, L. Inactivation times from 290 to 315 nm UVB in sunlight for SARS coronaviruses CoV and CoV-2 using OMI satellite data for the sunlit Earth. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. 1, 1–7 (2020).", "volume": "1", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.3390/ijerph16173020", "author": "H Pham", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "3020", "journal-title": "Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health.", "key": "81419_CR3", "unstructured": "Pham, H., Rahman, A., Majidi, A., Waterhouse, M. & Neale, R. E. Acute respiratory tract infection and 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 16, 3020 (2019).", "volume": "16", "year": "2019" }, { "DOI": "10.1007/s12020-015-0548-3", "author": "E Klingberg", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "800", "journal-title": "Endocrine", "key": "81419_CR4", "unstructured": "Klingberg, E., Oleröd, G., Konar, J., Petzold, M. & Hammarsten, O. Seasonal variations in serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D levels in a Swedish cohort. Endocrine 49, 800–808 (2015).", "volume": "49", "year": "2015" }, { "DOI": "10.1111/j.1365-2265.2005.02371.x", "author": "B Moosgaard", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "506", "journal-title": "Clin. Endocrinol.", "key": "81419_CR5", "unstructured": "Moosgaard, B. et al. Vitamin D status, seasonal variations, parathyroid adenoma weight and bone mineral density in primary hyperparathyroidism. Clin. Endocrinol. 63, 506–513 (2005).", "volume": "63", "year": "2005" }, { "DOI": "10.1017/S0007114511001991", "author": "DJ Berry", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1433", "journal-title": "Br. J. Nutr.", "key": "81419_CR6", "unstructured": "Berry, D. J., Hesketh, K., Power, C. & Hyppönen, E. Vitamin D status has a linear association with seasonal infections and lung function in British adults. Br. J. Nutr. 106, 1433–1440 (2011).", "volume": "106", "year": "2011" }, { "DOI": "10.1136/bmj.282.6273.1349", "author": "JR Juttmann", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1349", "journal-title": "Br. Med. J.", "key": "81419_CR7", "unstructured": "Juttmann, J. R., Visser, T. J., Buurman, C., De Kam, E. & Birkenhäger, J. C. Seasonal fluctuations in serum concentrations of vitamin D metabolites in normal subjects. Br. Med. J. 282, 1349–1352 (1981).", "volume": "282", "year": "1981" }, { "DOI": "10.1371/journal.pone.0164395", "author": "J Krzywanski", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "e0164395", "journal-title": "PLoS ONE", "key": "81419_CR8", "unstructured": "Krzywanski, J. et al. Seasonal vitamin D status in Polish elite athletes in relation to sun exposure and oral supplementation. PLoS ONE 11, e0164395 (2016).", "volume": "11", "year": "2016" }, { "DOI": "10.3310/hta23020", "author": "AR Martineau", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1", "journal-title": "Health Technol. Assess.", "key": "81419_CR9", "unstructured": "Martineau, A. R. et al. Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: Individual participant data meta-analysis. Health Technol. Assess. 23, 1–44 (2019).", "volume": "23", "year": "2019" }, { "DOI": "10.3390/nu12113361", "author": "J Mercola", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "3361", "journal-title": "Nutrients.", "key": "81419_CR10", "unstructured": "Mercola, J., Grant, W. B. & Wagner, C. L. Evidence regarding vitamin D and risk of COVID-19 and its severity. Nutrients. 12, 3361 (2020).", "volume": "12", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.1093/ajcn/85.3.860", "author": "E Hyppönen", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "860", "journal-title": "Am. J. Clin. Nutr.", "key": "81419_CR11", "unstructured": "Hyppönen, E. & Power, C. Hypovitaminosis D in British adults at age 45 y: Nationwide cohort study of dietary and lifestyle predictors. Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 85, 860–868 (2007).", "volume": "85", "year": "2007" }, { "author": "PC Ilie", "first-page": "1", "journal-title": "Aging Clin. Exp. Res.", "key": "81419_CR12", "unstructured": "Ilie, P. C., Stefanescu, S. & Smith, L. The role of vitamin D in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and mortality. Aging Clin. Exp. Res. 6, 1–4 (2020).", "volume": "6", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.1002/oby.22838", "author": "SJ Carter", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1176", "journal-title": "Obesity", "key": "81419_CR13", "unstructured": "Carter, S. J., Baranauskas, M. N. & Fly, A. D. Considerations for obesity, vitamin D, and physical activity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Obesity 28, 1176–1177 (2020).", "volume": "28", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.1002/dmrr.3375", "author": "BJ Boucher", "doi-asserted-by": "crossref", "first-page": "3375", "journal-title": "Diabetes/Metab. Res. Rev.", "key": "81419_CR14", "unstructured": "Boucher, B. J. Vitamin D status as a predictor of Covid-19 risk in Black, Asian and other ethnic minority groups in the UK. Diabetes/Metab. Res. Rev. 1, 3375 (2020).", "volume": "1", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.4158/EP11147.OR", "author": "J Payne", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "185", "journal-title": "Endocr. Pract.", "key": "81419_CR15", "unstructured": "Payne, J. et al. Vitamin D insufficiency in diabetic retinopathy. Endocr. Pract. 18, 185–193 (2012).", "volume": "18", "year": "2012" }, { "DOI": "10.3390/v11030207", "author": "A Ianevski", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "207", "journal-title": "Viruses.", "key": "81419_CR16", "unstructured": "Ianevski, A. et al. Low temperature and low UV indexes correlated with peaks of influenza virus activity in Northern Europe during 2010–2018. Viruses. 11, 207 (2019).", "volume": "11", "year": "2019" }, { "DOI": "10.1093/infdis/jiaa436", "author": "Y Li", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1090", "journal-title": "J. Infect. Dis.", "key": "81419_CR17", "unstructured": "Li, Y., Wang, X. & Nair, H. Global seasonality of human seasonal coronaviruses: A clue for postpandemic circulating season of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2?. J. Infect. Dis. 222, 1090–1097 (2020).", "volume": "222", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.1093/infdis/jiaa436", "author": "TC Bulfone", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1090", "journal-title": "J. Infect. Dis.", "key": "81419_CR18", "unstructured": "Bulfone, T. C., Malekinejad, M., Rutherford, G. W. & Razani, N. Outdoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, a systematic review. J. Infect. Dis. 222, 1090–1097 (2020).", "volume": "222", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.1111/apt.15777", "author": "JM Rhodes", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "first-page": "1434", "journal-title": "Aliment. Pharmacol. Ther.", "key": "81419_CR19", "unstructured": "Rhodes, J. M., Subramanian, S., Laird, E. & Kenny, R. A. low population mortality from COVID-19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity. Aliment. Pharmacol. Ther. 51, 1434–1437 (2020).", "volume": "51", "year": "2020" }, { "DOI": "10.1016/j.afos.2020.08.005", "author": "EM Lewiecki", "doi-asserted-by": "publisher", "journal-title": "Osteoporosis Sarcopenia.", "key": "81419_CR20", "unstructured": "Lewiecki, E. M. Vitamin D and COVID-19: Is something better than nothing?. Osteoporosis Sarcopenia. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.afos.2020.08.005 (2020).", "year": "2020" } ], "reference-count": 20, "references-count": 20, "relation": { "has-preprint": [ { "asserted-by": "object", "id": "10.1101/2020.10.28.20221176", "id-type": "doi" } ] }, "resource": { "primary": { "URL": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w" } }, "score": 1, "short-title": [], "source": "Crossref", "subject": [], "subtitle": [], "title": "Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor", "type": "journal-article", "update-policy": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/springer_crossmark_policy", "volume": "11" }