Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor

{ 'indexed': {'date-parts': [[2024, 4, 22]], 'date-time': '2024-04-22T17:58:07Z', 'timestamp': 1713808687744}, 'reference-count': 20, 'publisher': 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC', 'issue': '1', 'license': [ { 'start': { 'date-parts': [[2021, 1, 21]], 'date-time': '2021-01-21T00:00:00Z', 'timestamp': 1611187200000}, 'content-version': 'tdm', 'delay-in-days': 0, 'URL': 'https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0'}, { 'start': { 'date-parts': [[2021, 1, 21]], 'date-time': '2021-01-21T00:00:00Z', 'timestamp': 1611187200000}, 'content-version': 'vor', 'delay-in-days': 0, 'URL': 'https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0'}], 'content-domain': {'domain': ['link.springer.com'], 'crossmark-restriction': False}, 'abstract': '<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>To determine the factor triggering the sudden surge ' 'of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020. The ' 'dates of the surge were determined using a fitting of the two last months of reported daily ' 'new cases in 18 European countries with latitude ranging from 39° to 62°. The study proves no ' 'correlation between the country surge date and the 2\xa0weeks preceding temperature or ' 'humidity but shows an impressive linear correlation with latitude. The country surge date ' 'corresponds to the time when its sun UV daily dose drops below ≈ 34% of that of 0° latitude. ' 'Introducing reported seasonal blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration variation ' 'into the reported link between acute respiratory tract infection risk and 25(OH)D ' 'concentration quantitatively explains the surge dynamics. Several studies have already ' 'substantiated a 25(OH)D concentration impact on COVID-19 severity. However, by comparing ' 'different patient populations, discriminating whether a low 25(OH)D concentration is a real ' 'factor underlying COVID-19 severity or only a marker of another weakness that is the primary ' 'severity factor can be challenging. The date of the surge is an intrapopulation observation ' 'and has the benefit of being triggered only by a parameter globally affecting the population, ' 'i.e. decreases in the sun UV daily dose. The results indicate that a low 25(OH)D ' 'concentration is a contributing factor to COVID-19 severity, which, combined with previous ' 'studies, provides a convincing set of evidence.</jats:p>', 'DOI': '10.1038/s41598-021-81419-w', 'type': 'journal-article', 'created': {'date-parts': [[2021, 1, 21]], 'date-time': '2021-01-21T11:03:39Z', 'timestamp': 1611227019000}, 'update-policy': 'http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/springer_crossmark_policy', 'source': 'Crossref', 'is-referenced-by-count': 38, 'title': 'Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, ' 'pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor', 'prefix': '10.1038', 'volume': '11', 'author': [{'given': 'Stephan', 'family': 'Walrand', 'sequence': 'first', 'affiliation': []}], 'member': '297', 'published-online': {'date-parts': [[2021, 1, 21]]}, 'reference': [ { 'key': '81419_CR1', 'doi-asserted-by': 'publisher', 'first-page': '150', 'DOI': '10.4161/derm.22941', 'volume': '5', 'author': 'M Grigalavicius', 'year': '2013', 'unstructured': 'Grigalavicius, M., Juzeniene, A., Baturaite, Z., Dahlback, A. & Moan, J. 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