Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study
MD Fei Zhou, MD Ting Yu, MD Ronghui Du, MS Guohui Fan, MD, B Song MS, Y Ying Liu, MD Zhibo Liu, Jie Xiang, MD Yeming Wang, Bin Song, PhD Xiaoying Gu, MD Lulu Guan, Yuan Wei, Hui Li, Xudong Wu, MD Jiuyang Xu, Shengjin Tu, MD Yi Zhang, Prof Hua Chen, Prof Bin Cao
The Lancet, doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30566-3
Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratoryconfirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1•10, 95% CI 1•03-1•17, per year increase; p=0•0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5•65, 2•61-12•23; p<0•0001), and d-dimer greater than 1 µg/L (18•42, 2•64-128•55; p=0•0033) on admission. Median duration of viral shedding was 20•0 days (IQR 17•0-24•0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 µg/L could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future.
Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.
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