Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
Prospective survey-based study with 15,227 people in the UK, showing reduced risk of COVID-19 cases with lower impact physical activity.
NCT04330599 (history). COVIDENCE UK.
Although the 17% fewer cases is not statistically significant, it is consistent with the significant 19% fewer cases
[7‑29%] from meta analysis of the
19 cases results to date.
risk of case, 17.0% lower, OR 0.83, p = 0.18, adjusted per study, fully adjusted, ≥2 hours lower impact physical activity vs. 0 hours, RR approximated with OR.
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Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
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Holt et al., 30 Mar 2021, prospective, United Kingdom, peer-reviewed, 34 authors, study period 1 May, 2020 - 5 February, 2021, trial
NCT04330599 (history) (COVIDENCE UK).
Contact:
a.martineau@qmul.ac.uk.
Abstract: Respiratory infection
Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-
based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
Hayley Holt,1 Mohammad Talaei ,1 Matthew Greenig,1 Dominik Zenner,1
Jane Symons,2 Clare Relton,1 Katherine S Young,3 Molly R Davies,3
Katherine N Thompson,3 Jed Ashman,1 Sultan Saeed Rajpoot,1 Ahmed Ali Kayyale,1
Sarah El Rifai ,1 Philippa J Lloyd ,1 David Jolliffe,1 Olivia Timmis,1 Sarah Finer,1
Stamatina Iliodromiti,1 Alec Miners,4 Nicholas S Hopkinson ,5 Bodrul Alam,6
Graham Lloyd-Jones ,7 Thomas Dietrich,8 Iain Chapple,8 Paul E Pfeffer ,1
David McCoy,1 Gwyneth Davies,9 Ronan A Lyons,9 Christopher Griffiths,1
Frank Kee ,10 Aziz Sheikh,11 Gerome Breen,3 Seif O Shaheen,1
Adrian R Martineau 1
►► Additional supplemental
material is published online
only. To view, please visit the
journal online (http://d x.doi.
org/1 0.1136/t horaxjnl-2021-
217487).
For numbered affiliations see
end of article.
Correspondence to
Professor Adrian R Martineau,
Blizard Institute, Barts and The
London School of Medicine
and Dentistry, Queen Mary
University of London, London
E1 2AT, UK;
a.martineau@q mul.ac.uk
HH, MT, SOS and ARM
contributed equally.
Received 19 April 2021
Accepted 9 September 2021
© Author(s) (or their
employer(s)) 2021. No
commercial re-use. See rights
and permissions. Published
by BMJ.
To cite: Holt H, Talaei M,
Greenig M, et al. Thorax Epub
ahead of print: [please
include Day Month Year].
doi:10.1136/
thoraxjnl-2021-217487
ABSTRACT
Background Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include
older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and
underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors
also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is
uncertain.
Methods We undertook a prospective, population-
based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020
to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential
risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire.
Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident
COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to
estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for
associations between potential risk factors and odds of
COVID-19.
Results We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19
in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of
developing COVID-19 were independently associated
with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR
2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding
(aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to
1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households
in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of
visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per
week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding
health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR
1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI)
(aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0–30.0 kg/m2
and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus
BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently
associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to
0.97). No independent associations were seen for age,
sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient
supplement use.
Conclusions After rigorous adjustment for factors
influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British
ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased
odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was
associated with decreased odds.
Trial registration number C
linicalTrials.gov Registry
(NCT04330599).
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