Supplementary Data — Ensitrelvir for COVID-19: real-time meta-analysis of 10 studies

October 2026

Ensitrelvir COVID-19 outcomes

StudyImprovementRR · 95% CIOutcomeTreatmentControlRelative Risk
Mukae (DB RCT)45%0.55 · 0.37–0.81viral load14 (n)14 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)36%0.64 · 0.41–1.00viral load15 (n)14 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)45%0.55 · 0.34–0.90viral time15 (n)14 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)44%0.56 · 0.35–0.92viral time13 (n)14 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)54%0.46 · 0.05–4.38viral+1/122/11 Mukae (DB RCT)−10%1.10 · 0.22–5.51viral+3/152/11 Mukae (DB RCT)80%0.20 · 0.01–3.80viral+0/132/13 Mukae (DB RCT)54%0.46 · 0.05–4.53viral+1/142/13 Mukae (DB RCT)54%0.46 · 0.10–2.12viral+2/144/13 Mukae (DB RCT)90%0.10 · 0.01–1.77viral+0/154/13 Mukae (DB RCT)80%0.20 · 0.05–0.75viral+2/1410/14 Mukae (DB RCT)63%0.37 · 0.15–0.92viral+4/1510/14 Mukae (DB RCT)9%0.91 · 0.59–1.40viral+10/1411/14 Mukae (DB RCT)−10%1.10 · 0.79–1.55viral+13/1511/14 Mukae (DB RCT)9%0.91 · 0.76–1.08improv.116 (n)111 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)17%0.83 · 0.69–0.99improv.114 (n)111 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)32%0.68 · 0.56–0.82viral time113 (n)108 (n) Mukae (DB RCT)44%0.56 · 0.42–0.75viral time113 (n)108 (n) Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)−1%1.01 · 0.06–16.09hosp.1/5951/600SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)67%0.33 · 0.01–8.15hosp.0/6031/600SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)11%0.89 · 0.71–1.11recov. time577 (n)572 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)10%0.90 · 0.68–1.19recov. time582 (n)572 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)18%0.82 · 0.67–1.00recov. time330 (n)321 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)19%0.81 · 0.67–0.98recov. time336 (n)321 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)13%0.87 · 0.65–1.17recov. time577 (n)572 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)10%0.90 · 0.49–1.68recov. time582 (n)572 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)13%0.87 · 0.74–1.02recov. time330 (n)321 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)16%0.84 · 0.70–1.01recov. time336 (n)321 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)49%0.51 · 0.34–0.76viral load579 (n)589 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)49%0.51 · 0.34–0.76viral load592 (n)589 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)59%0.41 · 0.24–0.69viral load330 (n)321 (n)SCORPIO-SR Yotsuyan.. (DB RCT)59%0.41 · 0.24–0.69viral load336 (n)321 (n)SCORPIO-SR Takazono (PSW)−24%1.24 · 0.17–9.05deathpopulation-based cohort Takazono (PSW)−158%2.58 · 0.60–11.12ventilationpopulation-based cohort Takazono97%0.03 · 0.00–0.44ICUpopulation-based cohort Takazono (PSW)36%0.64 · 0.26–1.56oxygenpopulation-based cohort Takazono (PSW)37%0.63 · 0.42–0.94hosp.population-based cohort Luetkem.. (DB RCT)80%0.20 · 0.01–4.18death0/1,0372/1,048SCORPIO-HR Luetkem.. (DB RCT)−203%3.03 · 0.32–29.10hosp.3/1,0371/1,048SCORPIO-HR Luetkem.. (DB RCT)5%0.95 · 0.90–1.02recov. time945 (n)943 (n)SCORPIO-HR Luetkem.. (DB RCT)−2%1.02 · 0.88–1.19PASC256/1,037253/1,048SCORPIO-HR Luetkem.. (DB RCT)19%0.81 · 0.68–0.97viral+175/882215/881SCORPIO-HR Luetkem.. (DB RCT)16%0.84 · 0.77–0.91viral+420/835517/862SCORPIO-HR Katsuta10%0.90 · 0.81–0.99recov. time60 (n)42 (n) Schilling (RCT)67%0.33 · 0.01–8.05hosp.0/1971/191PLATCOV Schilling (RCT)3%0.97 · 0.14–6.81hosp.2/1972/191PLATCOV Schilling (RCT)8%0.92 · 0.86–0.97recov. time197 (n)191 (n)PLATCOV Schilling (RCT)14%0.86 · 0.62–1.19recov. time197 (n)191 (n)PLATCOV Schilling (RCT)49%0.51 · 0.42–0.62viral rate201 (n)191 (n)PLATCOV Nakano (DB RCT)4%0.96 · 0.68–1.37recov. time77 (n)37 (n) Nakano (DB RCT)28%0.72 · 0.60–0.85viral load74 (n)36 (n) Baker (RCT)−40%1.40 · 0.70–2.80death18/29313/296STRIVE Baker (RCT)−22%1.22 · 0.92–1.61no recov.293 (n)296 (n)STRIVE Hayden (DB RCT)−396%4.96 · 0.24–103hosp.2/1,0300/1,011SCORPIO-PEP Hayden (DB RCT)68%0.32 · 0.22–0.48symp. case30/1,03091/1,011SCORPIO-PEP Hayden (DB RCT)58%0.42 · 0.31–0.57cases56/1,030131/1,011SCORPIO-PEP
00.511.52+
Rotate screen for more detailsIncrease width for more details
← Ensitrelvir
reduces risk
Ensitrelvir
increases risk →
Fig. S1. All outcomes.
Loading..
Fig. S2. Comparison of results for RCTs versus observational studies. For COVID-19 treatments, there is no significant difference between the results of RCTs and observational studies. Observational studies do not systematically over or underestimate efficacy. For high-cost treatments, there is a non-significant trend towards RCTs showing greater efficacy.