Survey of global experts suggesting a 77% probability that COVID-19 originated from animal-to-human transmission, compared to 21% for a lab leak. The poll included 168 scientists across 47 countries, including virologists (46%) and epidemiologists (44%). Virologists estimated a much lower likelihood (8% vs. 21%) that a future pandemic would stem from a lab accident.
However, 78% of respondents were not familiar with the DEFUSE proposal, indicating a lack of basic knowledge on the topic. One-third also claimed familiarity with a fictional paper.
Enserink et al., 6 Feb 2024, peer-reviewed, survey, 1 author.
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